4/30: Churchill Downs (1st-12th); Belmont Park (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Frightening forecast for severe weather starting late this afternoon and through Derby Day means this card may be the one to enjoy in its' entirety with tomorrow an unknown. Between Oaks, Rachel Alexandra's second '10 start and three more excellent stakes, there is plenty to like.

The two weeks of 'At the Races' Oaks-Derby coverage wraps this afternoon, and as usual, it's been a deliciously fun fortnight. Hope you have enjoyed the lineups and conversations and insights, and it helps you get started on a successful Triple Crown season. Thanks to the staff at Churchill for an especially warm welcome this year...

Full card look for Churchill below as well as the opening day P4 at Belmont Park. Remember that Andy Serling returns tonight on the NYRA website chat, and will certainly have Derby card thoughts as well opinions on Belmont's first Saturday. Enjoy Oaks-Derby/Belmont Opening Weekend!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Tough spot for a layoff returnee (#2 Ravi's Song; 2-1) to go as favorite; Will play against and look for some of the formful prices here instead..

Best Value: #7 Yonakee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Diamond Song 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Fortune Play 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dixie Pixie 10-1 6th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)


Most Likely: #1 Rigamaro 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 English Girl 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Azurite 7-2 WON
Super Add: #4 Karen Ann 12-1 10th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Hybrid 9-2 6th
Best Value: #12 Bascom Hall 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Belgrave Square 5-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Gigantos 6-1 7th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Go for Jan 12-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Fuzzy Britches 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Glowing Report 15-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Souma 3-1 9th


5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Forest Trail 4-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #11 Danzon 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Coulee 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Deputy Darling 15-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-7
3: 5-10-12
4: 3-4-5-8-11
5: 1-4-11

3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50


6th: 25th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Morena 20-1 3rd
Next Best #3 Zardana 3-1 5th


7th: 22nd KY Juvenile, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Twelve Pack Shelly 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Lou Brissie 5-1 WON


<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-5-8-11
5: 1-2-3-4-10-11
6: 4
7: 7-9

6x6x1x2 = 72 x .50 = $36


8th: 16th Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Silver Timber 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Starfish Bay 7-2 6th
Super Add: #10 Central City 12-1 3rd


9th: 7th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 COOL COAL MAN 4-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Chocolate Candy 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Macho Again 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Arson Squad 3-1 WON


10th: 19th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Workin for Hops 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Setsuko 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Saint Eligius 12-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Gleam of Hope 15-1 6th


11th: 136th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby Double, DD, Super)

Only way to approach is to stand against Blind Luck within the race and include her in multis; Big performance first dirt (104 Beyer Fantasy effort) can produce adverse reaction, and though Hollendorfer filly gets desired pace to attack, think she comes back to the pack today; Also standing against Lukas' Tidal Pool who has looked off the past two weeks leading up to this sophomore distaffing standard..

Most Likely: #11 Evening Jewel (10-1): Cassidy miss will stalk and pounce first dirt; Couldn't be better fit for this.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Jody Slew (30-1): Woman among girls physically and will grind out trip; Must for exotics plays.. 13th
Exotics Use: #1 It's Tea Time (15-1): Arnold's Ashland runner-up continues to develop; Saves all the ground.. 9th
Super Adds: #7 Crisp (8-1): Sadler filly has done everything right leading up to weekend; Should advance first dirt.. 7th #12 Ailalea (15-1): Figures to be overlooked and would love it if rains came early.. 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-6-7
9: 4
10: 1-6-7-8-9-11
11: 1-2-5-7-11

3x1x6x5 = 90 x .50 = $45


12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Ready to Sing 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bialy 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Go Pro 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyn Jym 15-1 9th
High 5 Play: #2 Awesome Temper 8-1 8th



BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Fortyninegeorgest. 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Yukon Gold Rush 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Untopable 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Oedipus O'Neal 15-1 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Count Catamount 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Fit 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Jess Not Jesse 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Little Alex 8-1 6th


8th: 82nd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ironman Jon 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Bribon 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Convocation 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Le Grand Cru 15-1 WON


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Ali's Joy 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Gilt Edged 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Jacob's Dream 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Unforgettable P J 20-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 7-10
7: 1-2-4
8: 4-6
9: 1-3-4-7-8-9

2x3x2x6 = $72


Good luck!
Steve