Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

The horse wasn't good enough at a mile and a quarter, plain and simple. No shame in that, he wasn't built for that trip. The trip he got wasn't materially different from that of the winner, they both moved at the same time from 3rd and 4th, and the winner beat him by six lengths over the last quarter mile. He staggered home the last quarter and got swallowed up by the closers... who encountered trip trouble or they might have run him down even earlier. Paddy and Ice Box both got stopped in the stretch.

I don't think this is a fair representation. NP was the only horse to run early (other than the speed), passing a number of horses to get into third, while SS was safely behind him. He also battled SS in the stretch before that one dropped him. Now, how many times is a horse supposed to run in a race? The pacesetters absolutely collapsed. This horse chased them, running into a fast 1st and 2nd split, then is used to run by them, then duels with the winner, who had a garden inside trip. And, the best you can offer is that Paddy, who was the benefit of all this got stopped in the stretch. Or that Ice Box got stopped? Consider this: what happens if Ice Box doesn't get stopped and is forced to make the same extended run that LaL and MMFM did? You think there's just a wee bit chance he levels off the way they did? Think about it: he's not that good. NP put in the best effort in the race given the setup. Give him SS' trip and he's right there.