8/4: Saratoga (Day 11-De La Rose)

[Kasept]

Week 3 of Saratoga commences Wednesday on the heels of an OK if uninspiring Monday that left some money on the P4 table ($273.00) when 4th choice Zapparition ($25.00) was missing from the play. Had winners sprinkled throughout the card, but largely missed anything in the way of super premium scores, though 1st and 7th race exactas featuring Sciacca-trained runners up went a long way towards defraying the day's expenses. 3-1 Lisa Jean edged Dr. Giacopelli's 10-1 Loyal Shadow in the opener producing a $72.50 ($2) mutuel, and when 25-1 overlay Wise Choice got up behind clear choice Australis Princess in the 7th, you were rewarded with an $122.50 ($2) bingo.

The weekend lacked the big hits of the first 7 days of the session, but I feel good as we move into the meet's second quarter with a nice bankroll cushion. Hope you're doing well and are looking forward to a great Wednesday of action. In addition to Saratoga, there is a very nice late P3 at Delaware Park (7th-9th) that includes the $50k Dashing Beauty, as well as the Cal-bred Graduation at Del Mar and the Ontario-bred Shepperton at Woodbine tonight!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

These state bred ALW events have been highly competitive and excellent sources of big prices so far in the meet. Key is beating vulnerable favorites in these events, like Rice's #10 Abilio who is not better than several here but dangerous if allowed to get easy lead and soft trip under Dominguez. And I'll further play totally against ML fave #7 Tom Kitten..

Best Value: #8 Joey's Chance 8-1: Sits stalking trip; Race 2 back wins.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Barrel of Love 6-1: Hertler with positive stretchout ROI.. 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Gamblin Fever 10-1: Consistant board hitter 7th
Super Add: #1 Mr. Hooker 20-1: Woody Payne's 5yo broke MDN here '09.. 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Box 1-3-5-8-10 (5x4x3x2 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fiscal Stimulus 7-5: Klarman coins the worst names in racing.. WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #7 Ender's Universe 4-1: 3yo debut in vicinty of short number fave above.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Espirito Santo 5-1: Guillot gelding working well for bow.. 4th
Super Add: #4 Coach Billy G. 5-1 5th



3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Well-matched and uncomfortably confusing group featuring Turf/Dirt and Class movers. One question that makes this a difficult race is whether 8-5 Kid Kate and 6-1 Proclaim possibly duel. That would suit the 3 below quite well, as they can sit stalking trips. Fact is that North Rodeo is faster than anyone else here..

Most Likely: #2 North Rodeo 7-2: Flashed foot when escaping synthetics; Well spotted.. 5th
Next Best: #6 Hit It Rich 5-2: Janney homebred broke MDN at this tricky trip.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Dattt Echo: Broke MDN here '09; Style suits, gets Leparoux.. 4th


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not a lot to go on here though best of previous starters clear, and Baker firster appearing well meant..

Most Likely: #1 Bug Juice 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Seek to Destroy 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Bound by Humor 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Double Black 5-1 3rd


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

5TH HAS BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TURF..

Most Likely: #5 Silvercup Baby 4-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Daily Star 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #7 Sorority Sister 12-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-7
3: 2-3-5-6
4: 1-5-6-7
5: 5-10

2x4x4x2 = $64 $1 P4 Paid $22.50


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Custer's Last Stand 3-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Delta Thunder 9-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Renewed Hope 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Audie's Champ 20-1 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Not a lot to this with race Convocation's to lose at tough to swallow 3-5..

Most Likely: #9 Convocation 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #2 Glenwood Canyon 15-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Overbid 20-1 5th


8th: 7th De La Rose, F&M-4+, 1m-IT (DD, Super)

Fun edition of this nice listed stake with a couple of invading prices possible. Incomparable Tom Proctor off to great start at meet, and Keertana feels like the right horse at the right price with ground-saving stalker's trip assured. Note musical jocks as Gomez sides with Haka over Keertana and Castellano with Miss Keller over Miss Catalyst..

Most Likely: #4 Keertana 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Haka 12-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Miss Keller 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #6 Daveron 6-1 7th


9th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 System Ready 6-1: Footwear SCR victim bred top/bottom for lawn.. 4th
Next Best: #9 Silver Medallion 7-2: Badge a ? for sod, but sib Sweet Talker was MSW.. WON ($9.50)
Exotics Use: #10 Sweet William 4-1 9th
Super Add: #4 Forum 8-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

Convocation single appears logical approach with potential to snare bonus totes in stake and nightcap..

6: 3-9-10
7: 9
8: 3-4-6-8-10
9: 1-4-6-9-10

3x1x5x5 = $75


Good luck!
Steve