10/9: Belmont (6th-10th); Keeneland (6th-11th)

[Kasept]

Appeared poised to get out for the challenging day Friday in the Keeneland nightcap live to three, but Neil Pessin's Lunar Mist could not reel in plausible Maker-Ramsey price pony Such Time as This. Had strung together winners of the previous troika for solid P3 of $153.00, which included the Opening Day graded features. In the Phoenix, tricky Charlie Lopresti added a second BC Sprint player in Wise Dan ($15.20) to go along with Forego hero Here Comes Ben. Doug O'Neill will likely move forward to Churchill and the BC Juvenile Fillies with Wickedly Perfect despite the paltry 69 Beyer she received winning the Alcibiades.

Earlier in the day at Belmont, outstanding payoffs in the P6 ($77k to one ticket) and early P4 ($18k to 5 $1 plays) were triggered by $66 Red Hot Baby from John Terranova in the 5th. It was a good day of racing despite not hitting as many multi-race punts as you'd like, given that a number of winners were just horses that were simply hard to justify. Hope you did OK and are ready for the big three day Holiday Weekend!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Here's another one of those NY bred ALW events on the lawn that regularly pay bonus dividends; This one is no exception as the three favorites are not appreciably better than the next half dozen players, so be aggressive..

POST-CHANGES NOTE: The SCR of #1 Fortunate Run (50-1) from the 6th allows #13 The Noz (6-1) to draw in. Jaime Rodriguez is named, a come down from Maragh and Castellano, but race-riding expertise isn't exactly demanded here as he only is going to be required to gain front-running position early off the dogleg. The Noz getting in should only serve to further prompt the pace set by Tocco d'Oro, City Train and Jet to Classics and set this salacious race up for the stalkers/closers...

Best Value: #6 Joey's Chance 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Barrel of Love 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Sky Blue Pink 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Adirondack Warrior 20-1 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 6 1st & 2nd with 3-11 with 2-3-5-8-10-11 with ALL (1x2x5x9 + 2x1x5x9 = 90 + 90 = 180 x .10 = $18.00)


7th: 61st Jamaica H. (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendous edition of this now important late season grass test for sophomores; Think Krypton is the 'now' horse here, and would like to get Center Divider into the mix as long as he doesn't get too wise and drop below appropriate number (10-1+). Same could be feared with Michelle Nihei colt Prince Wil (10-1 ML)..

Most Likely: #9 Krypton 3-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Center Divider 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Beau Choix 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Prince Wil I Am 10-1 WON ($21.60)


8th: 62rd Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Tough to seperate the fillies here that haven't gone past 6f, so inclination is to prefer the ones that have covered some added ground. In addition, Baffert invader hails from highly productive series of alphabetical Zayat Warriors and figures to appreciate organic main track..

Most Likely: #5 A Z Warrior 4-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #8 Joyful Victory 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 R Heat Lightening 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 After Later 12-1 8th


9th: 139th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Hard to figure that with the Futurity tabled for the year, no other connections were interested in testing Uncle Mo or at least try for G1 black type in as important a juvy event as there is anywhere. Note that Breen-Hall MTH import Brother in Arms drew the outside pressure point post, has :22/:45 capability on the engine, and totes a '1/140' (!) half mile bullet into this. Could lap on to Uncle Mo early and make him earn it every step of the way..

Most Likely: #1 Uncle Mo 1-4 WON ($2.20)
Best Value: #3 Settle for Medal 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Brother in Arms 5-1 5th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Grand Piano Man 7-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Judge Well 4-1
Exotics Use: #8 Recharged 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 First of Ten 6-1 WON ($25.80)


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-4-6-7-9-10
9: 1-5-8
10: 1
11: 5-6-8-9

6x3x1x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (7-5-1-5) Paid $762.50



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 14th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1: Hard to go against 6yo enjoying best year yet.. 4th
Best Value: #3 Central City 12-1: Return to grass key; Pointed for this since summer.. 2nd
Next Best: #9 Silver Timber 3-1: Brown 7yo perfect this strip; Always fires fresh.. WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Fiddlers Patriot 30-1: Weaver NY bred got back to top in return; Threat.. 10th


7th: 30th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Though Warrior's Reward was an OK 3rd Friday on the surface, Champagne d'Oro is also a play-against using the same BC preparation approach; THe PID Masters is the race to focus on in this spot, and as discussed with Stakes Coordinator Jim Cornes on ATR, watch out for Presque Isle Downs form at KEE this meet in general. 30-1 Waccamaw is the poster filly for that angle today, as she was within a jump of the top pair in the Masters last month..

Most Likely: #8 Dubai Majesty 9-2 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #7 Waccamaw 30-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Informed Decision 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Dr. Zic 8-1 9th


8th: 30th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

A lot to ask of the wonderful Wasted Tears to take this quality group all the way around given several here that want piece of front end. Excellent edition of this G1 event..

Best Value: #1 C. S. Silk 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Fantasia 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Proviso 8-5 WON ($4.60)
Super Add: #6 Kiss Mine 15-1 7th


9th: 97th Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Hodge-podge of diploma'd juvy misfits with but one, Petalino's Remington invader #5 Brickyard Fast, entering a G1 'main track' event off an actual dirt victory. It's just ridiculous what the synthetic installations have done to institution races like this..

Best Value: #4 Willcox Inn 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Major Gain 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Rough Sailing 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Maybesomaybenot 5-1 8th


10th: 25th Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Will be interesting to see how Gio Ponti is able to adjust to pace of a mile. It's been 18 months since his Kilroe win; Plucky Get Stormy does not have to have the lead, and don't forget that won the Bryan Station here last fall..

Best Value: #1 Get Stormy 3-1 4th
As Likely: #3 Courageous Cat 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Gio Ponti 7-5 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-7-8
8: 1-2-7
9: 4-8-9-10
10: 1-3-4

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


11th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Wheemaway 4-1
Best Value: #11 Praetereo 12-1
Next Best: #6 Nolangrant'skitten 8-1
Exotics Use: #1 Dreaming of Les 15-1
Hi-5 Play: #8 Anthony's Cross 3-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 4-7-8-9-10-11
10: 1-3-4
11: 1-6-7-11

2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve