The Racing Post Trophy ~ tomorrow at Doncaster

[my miss storm cat]

Saturday October 23 2010
Doncaster 14:55

Racing Post Trophy (group 1) (str)
£200000.00 added, 2yo only, 1m, Class 1
10 runners
Going: Good, Good to Soft in places
Surface: Turf
Race Preview » RP Trophy/Derby doubles: Native Khan 50/1

No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe Bet
1 (3) 121 Casamento (IRE) 27 2 9-0 M Halford L Dettori SP SP
11/4
2 (1) 120041 Dubawi Gold 14 2 9-0 M Dods T Eaves 99 SP SP
25/1
3 (4) 11 Dunboyne Express (IRE) 97 2 9-0 K Prendergast D P McDonogh SP SP
4/1
4 (2) 14 Karam Albaari (IRE) 42 2 9-0 J R Jenkins J Quinn 109 SP SP
22/1
5 (6) 5221 Master Of Hounds (USA) 104 2 9-0 A P O'Brien J P Murtagh 100 SP SP
6/1
6 (7) 11 Native Khan (FR) 63 2 9-0 E A L Dunlop P Hanagan 106 SP SP
8/1
7 (8) 21 Seville (GER) 20 2 9-0 A P O'Brien C O'Donoghue SP SP
7/1
8 (9) 11 Titus Mills (IRE) 46 2 9-0 B J Meehan K Fallon 108 SP SP
7/1
9 (5) U114 Toolain (IRE) 14 2 9-0 b1 M A Jarvis N Callan 105 SP SP
16/1
10 (10) 114 Zaidan (USA) 70 2 9-0 C E Brittain S Sanders 109 SP SP
25/1

Last Winner Year Horse Trainer Jockey SP Age Wt Draw
2009 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) A P O'Brien J P Murtagh 13/8F 2 9-0 9


Betting Forecast: 5/2 Casamento, 4/1 Dunboyne Express, 5/1 Seville, 6/1 Native Khan, 7/1 Master Of Hounds, 8/1 Titus Mills, 20/1 Karam Albaari, 20/1 Toolain, 25/1 Dubawi Gold, 25/1 Zaidan

Verdict
Favourites have won half of the last 10 runnings of this stellar juvenile contest with upsets rare and the likely market leader for this renewal, CASAMENTO is not easy to oppose. Michael Halford's colt has been beaten by only one rival, and that by merely a head at Group 1 level, in three starts to date. He is proven over this trip and on soft ground as evidenced by an impressive Beresford Stakes win last time and he is very much the one to beat. Dunboyne Express was flattered by the margin of victory in an uncompetitive Group 3 last time but that is not to say that Kevin Prendergast's unbeaten colt can't improve for this step up to a mile and he is a threat. Master Of Hounds is going the right way and was only narrowly beaten by Dunboyne Express at level weights earlier in the season. Native Khan and Titus Mills head up the home challenge and both need some improvement to be involved where it matters.


FORMWATCH
Casamento (IRE) 4-6fav (9-1) Raced in 2nd, improved to lead under 1 1/2f out, ridden clear final furlong, easily, won at Curragh 1m 2yo Grp 2 (1) in Sep beating Mawaakef (9-1) by 4l, 7 ran.Dubawi Gold 25-1 (9-0) Made all, ridden 2f out, ran on final furlong, won at Ascot 7f 2yo stks (2) gs beating Tazahum (9-0) by 3 1/2l, 5 ran.Dunboyne Express (IRE) 9-2 (9-1) Chased leader, improved to lead halfway, ridden and kept on well from over 1f out, stayed on strongly to go clear final furlong, won at Curragh 6f 2yo Grp 3 (1) gd in Jul beating Samuel Morse (9-1) by 8l, 4 ran.Karam Albaari (IRE) 50-1 (8-12) Held up in rear, pushed along over 2f out, soon headway, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, 4th of 6, 3l behind Saamidd (8-12) at Doncaster 7f 2yo Grp 2 (1) gd in Sep.Master Of Hounds (USA) 1-7fav (9-3) Chased leaders in 3rd, improved to lead 2f out, soon pushed clear, stayed on strongly, easily, won at Tipperary 7f 2yo mdn fm in Jul beating Poltava (9-3) by 6l, 8 ran.Native Khan (FR) 6-5fav (9-0) Held up last, smooth headway over 2f out, quickened between horses over 1f out, led inside final furlong, driven and stayed on strongly, won at Sandown 7f 2yo Grp 3 (1) gf in Aug beating Measuring Time (9-0) by 1/2l, 6 ran.Seville (GER) 8-13fav (8-10) Made all, went clear entering straight, ridden final furlong, easily, won at Tipperary 7f 2yo stk sft beating Triple Eight (9-6) by 6l, 4 ran.Titus Mills (IRE) 5-6fav (9-0) Made all, hung left to stands rail from inside final 2f, strongly pressed entering final furlong, driven found extra and in control final 100 yards, won going away, won at Goodwood 7f 2yo lst stk (1) gd in Sep beating Big Issue (9-0) by 1/2l, 5 ran.Toolain (IRE) 2-1fav (9-0) Held up, effort when repeatedly denied a clear run from over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, 4th of 8, 4 1/2l behind Abjer (9-0) at Ascot 1m 2yo Grp 3 (1) gs.Zaidan (USA) Evensfav (9-3) Tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong, last of 4, 8l behind Janood (9-0) at Newbury 7f 2yo lst stk (1) gs in Aug.

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Might be ridiculous to play against the favorites here (actually I thought the favorites would be Casamento and Master of Hounds) but I'll go with Native Khan / Toolain or Dubawi Gold.