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Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts
Marathon
Nothing like starting the Breeders Cup off with a $500,000 14 furlong dirt race - in which only a single horse has so much as one Graded Stakes win on dirt this year. That horse being Alcomo and that win being a nose score in the Brooklyn. Awesome Gem and Giant Oak are clearly the two best horses. However, Giant Oak is 0-for-10 lifetime on dirt with several hanging underneath finishes. Awesome Gem has 13 second place finishes to just 7 wins. Atoned, Million Seller, Romp, Gabriel's Hill all appear simply not good enough. I'm only using the Euro's in the top slot and tossing them for all underneath slots. I suppose there's a chance one of them can handle the track and beat this sad group. It boils out to a helter skelter stab looking exotic bets that go like this .... Tri: 2-4-9-10-11-12 OVER 7-8 OVER 7-8 ($12 per ticket) Super 2-4-9-10-11-12 OVER 7-8 OVER 2-4-6-10-12 OVER 7-8 ($50 per ticket) Juvnile Turf Fillies Actually a pretty good looking group. The horses who drew posts 10 and 11 come out of a pretty strong Natalama - two interesting Euro's drew posts 12 and 13 - and a Pletcher/JRV has the 14 hole. I'll take my chances and toss all five in favor of the solid horses who had better draws. 2-3-7-8 in multi wins for me. And maybe a little 7/2-3-8 and 2-3-8/7 in exotics. Filly and Mare Sprint I'm betting against the two morning line favorites. Informed Decision would win this on synthetic and she will get her pace setup - but she's not good on dirt. I couldn't care less how anyone says she's working. Rightly So - much like with fellow Tony Dutrow trained Havre De Grace - has seen her form thrive on an alchemistic move-up high. It's been a tale of two half years for Tony Dutrow. Here are his dirt stats for the first half of '10 - and the second half of this year. Tony Dutrow first half of 2010: 47-for-191 (24.6% wins) $1.54 ROI Tony Dutrow 2nd half of 2010: 45-for-116 (38.8% wins) $2.20 ROI You see the spike in stats reflected on the form of a lot of his horses - Rightly So and Havre De Grace among them. Rightly So was twice beaten in small NY Bred sprint stakes at AQU to start the year - and here she is favored for this. Jessica Is Back is the one horse I feel I can turst to run well in this race. The three wildcards are Sweet August Moon, Evening Jewel, and Switch. The latter two may struggle with what might be an uncomfotably fast pace for them. Sweet August Moon won't - I like her a lot - but is she good enough? Using those four in Multi wins - and JIB boxed with them in the exacta. Juvenile Fillies The Beyer Par for this race is a 95. Yet morning line favorite AZ Warrior has run four times and has never ran a figure better than 81. Morning line second choice R Heat Lightening has never run anything better than a 78. They have to improve 8.5 lengths and 10 lengths respectively just to reach par .. and in career start #5 no less. I'm playing against both. Give me Theysken's Theory, Awesome Feather, Joyful Victory, Delightful Mary, Believe in AP, and Tell A Kelly. I realize Joyful Victory was behind AZ Warrior and R Heat Lightening last time. But, you're talking about a Tapit debut winner routing .. who numbers suggest was probably placed too close to the pace last time out. Like the rider swith to the more patient Dominguez .. if I have to take one out of a slow race ... you can have the winner or the trip horse, I'll look for one with upside. Filly And Mare Turf I love that Plumania was beaten 26 lengths in the Arc and they bring her here. I'd much rather have a horse who put in no effort in the Arc. Longchamp is goofy course. Daylami got beat 23.5 lengths in the Arc and came right over here and won the Breeders Cup Turf with a 118 Beyer a few weeks later - made it look as easy as breaking sticks. The last time Plumania ran on a turf course that lacked a "soft" in it's labeling - she won a Group 2 by a cozy margin at 11/1 odds in May. The time before that - she was 3rd (placed 2nd) at 27/1 odds behind Dar Re Mi. Dar Re Mi was 3rd to Conduit against males in last years BC Turf. She beat males from post 14 in that $5 million Dubai race over the winter as well. Midday and Red Desire look like the other two in this race. Distaff A repeat of Unrivaled Belle's only other race over this track could probably win this race. She beat Rachel Alexandra by a head on Kentucky Oaks day at 8.5fs in a rapidly run 1:42 4/5. By comparison - Blind Luck needed 1:50 3/5 that day to win the Ky Oaks .. basically Unrivaled Belle's race was six full lengths superior in terms of final times. She's the older female I want. Blind Luck has improved since the Ky Oaks. She's very good. She has had a very tough campaign - and I guess you could make something of her repetitive lead switching in the stretch last time out .. I expect her to run well - if she was a speed horse or a presser - I think the chances of her hard season catching up to her would be something I'd worry about more. I like a big longshot in this race. Seeking The Title had absolutely no chance in the world last time out. She was stuck behind an impossibly slow pace over a wet track. Dallas Stewart is one of my least favorite trainers - but his horses do run their best at Churchill for whatever reason and this will be her first CD start - and Calvin Borel has been lethal on these hapless looking one-dimensional closers at Churchill. I wouldn't be surprised if this horse wakes up. |