12/31: Aqueduct ($17k Mandatory Pay C/O)

[Kasept]

Come into New Year's Eve needing proverbial bottom of the ninth heroics to level out what has been a sub-par annum for my bankroll. After getting behind at least $8k during the first half of the year, a strong Saratoga brought me back to solid footing, though still slightly down. Since Spa, an absence of consistent multi-race hits I count on to stay ahead has steadily worn a whole in the pocket. With one day to balance the ledger, I find myself down $6k.

A mandatory pay P6 carryover at Aqueduct could be the answer, and having flirted with 6-7 near-misses in sextets the last 2 months, it would be the ultimate 'walk-off' to catch this one. Wednesday's post-break Aqueduct Pick Six C/O play was the latest close call, having had all the winners listed in the tabs, but managing just 4 on any one ticket. $21.20 Nobody Like Mike and a $360 worth of P3's including him made the day more than OK, but the big prizes ($800 Late P4; $32k P6) proved elusive, and was typical of the kind of afternoon's I've experienced a little too often this year.

Hope you've done OK riding with me in 2010. As the year ends, it feels to me that it's been a period of time where I generally handicapped better than I wagered. There have been plenty of highs along the way -- Saratoga season and 40-1 Champagne d'Oro in the Acorn come to mind -- but it's not unusual or unproductive to think there is more work to be done and the approach can be improved. It's just a handful of results that make or break your balance sheet in any year, and I think about Evening Jewel's photo loss in the Kentucky Oaks at 14-1 as the perfect example. If you took chances and lost with some horses at big prices that were agonizingly beat, you still likely made the 'right' plays. You will be rewarded long term if your opinion was sound.

Warm wishes for a wonderful new year of health and happiness to ATR listeners, Derby Trailers, horseplayers, horsemen and everyone involved in our favorite game. Let's all work to make 2011 a great year...

Steve


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM/N1Y, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Iberian Gate 7-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #8 Stratton's Girl 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Judicial Leader 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gattinara 3-1 9th


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Masala 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #3 Marilyn's Guy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 No Shenanigans 2-1 4th
Trifecta Add: #4 Nacho Friend 8-1 5th


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #7 Illgiveyouwattever 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Voyager 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Katy's Office Girl 2-1 WON ($4.40)


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Whateverittakes 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #1 Mr. Hooker 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Gold Close to Home 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Game Token 8-1 8th


8th: 32nd Alex M. Robb-NY, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ichabad Crane 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #6 Manteca 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Giant Moon 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Mine Over Matter 4-1 3rd


9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-70y (Super)

Exceedingly difficult way to end the sequence, and the year. Race hinges on whether RudyRod's 8-5 Gentle Edwin is still a horse as he drops precipitously. After that, there are no auto-tosses..

Best Value: #7 Stopbluffing 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 French Transition 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Gentle Edwin 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Super Add: #5 Hurricane Heat 8-1 9th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-8
5: 1-2-3
6: 2-7
7: 6
8: 4-6
9: 4-5-6-7

2x3x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192 $2 P6 (5 of 6) Pays $6.60 x 2 = $13.20


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2/SCR-4-7
7: 1-6
8: 4-6-8
9: 4-5-6-7

2x2x3x4 = $48


Good luck!
Steve