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#1
03-31-2011, 09:46 PM
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Late Pace Figures for Derby Preps
I don't do numbers for Sunland... but here are the late pace figs for the rest of the preps....
Timely Writer: 182 late pace Risen Star: 131 late pace Dialed In's ALW race: 116 late pace Louisiana Derby: 112 late pace Gotham: 110 late pace Rebel: 106 late pace Holy Bull: 106 late pace Sam Davis: 100 late pace Fountain of Youth: 97 late pace Whirlaway: 96 late pace Tampa Derby: 92 late pace Lecomte: 91 late pace Southwest: 86 late pace El Camino Real Derby: 85 late pace Hutcheson: 84 late pace Sham: 67 late pace San Vincente: 65 late pace Spiral: 57 late pace Bob Lewis: 47 late pace San Felipe: 44 late pace Basically - the lower the number - the better chance closers have of winning. The higher the number - the harder it is for closers. If you're 10 lengths back in the Timely Writer - you've got no chance closing into a 182 late pace fig. If you're 10 lengths back in the San Felipe - you're only worry is that you might be way too close to the pace. It's kind of head scratching why all the preps in So. Cal seem to be going very fast early and very slow late. A lot of it surely has to do with riders assuming the track is speed biased ... so they are riding more aggressive through the early stages. The opposite is happening at Fair Grounds this year ... too much gets made about that long stretch. At that track, It's not untypical to see maidens setting faster fractions in routes and holding well - on the same card when they're lollygaging in Derby preps. 
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