4/16: Keeneland (P5); Spot Plays (AQU; OP; CT)

[Kasept]

Keeneland continued to play hard Friday, as even including winners in the selections didn't mean much as they were left off the multis! The reward when the magic happens is clearly worth the effort and investment though, as the carryover P5 produced a $6,445 payoff, the P4 came back at $1,407. The Hi-5 nightcap was a gaudy $21,556. Hope you did OK despite my direction Friday.

Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Days at Keeneland and Oaklawn, and Charles Town celebrates tonight with its' first graded stakes race, the $1,000,000 G3 Classic. Santa Anita will start its' closing weekend with a $60k+ P6 C/O. Weather in KY and WV will be wet and cool, meaning you should anticipate a faster version of Keeneland's poly. Have very little time to analyze the action this morning as I make my way to Louisville and a 1pm flight... Enjoy what should be a fun day!


KEENELAND


POST EARLY SCRATCHES


6th: 15th Shakertown (G3), 3yo+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Grand Adventure 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Silver Timber 5-2 6th
Super Add: #6 Great Attack 5-1 3rd


7th: 25th Commonwealth (G2), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Aikenite 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #2 Wise Dan 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Taqarub 5-1 5th


8th: 23rd Jenny Wiley (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding cast; Spread wide as possible as many here can win..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Keller 4-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Zagora 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Late SCR
Super Add: #8 Fantasia 5-1 2nd


9th: 87th Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Other than dirt, and CD proven, Santiva, hard to know if any here can impact Derby, but that doesn't stop it from being a fun betting race. As noted above, the wet, cool weather will likely produce strong performances from speed types. Watch how the day develops in routes (2nd, 4th, 5th), because if indeed the track goes glib, oddball frontrunner Joes Blazing Aaron will take them a long way..

Best Value: #7 Twinspired 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Santiva 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Crimson China 10-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Billiant Speed 6-1 WON ($40.20)


10th: ALW/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Fugitive Angel 5-2 5th
Best Value: #12 Sweetest Song 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Perfect Shirl 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Shameless 10-1 11th
Super Add: #4 No Explaining 4-1 WON ($7.80)


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-4-9
7: 1-2
8: 1-4-6-8-9-12
9: 3-5-7-11
10: 10

3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 1-4-6-8-9/SCR-12
9: 3-4-5-7-10-11
10: 10-12

2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72



AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Mr. Hooker and Adirondack Warrior both are pointing to good efforts while simultaneously returning to their preferred surface..

Best Value: #4 MR. HOOKER 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Boat 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Adirondack Warrior 12-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Surfactant 3-1 5th



OAKLAWN PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


11th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Pretty fascinating edition of this event, and you can make a case for virtually all of them if forced. If you don't think The Factor can or will win, you will have great fun with your plays. I think he's bona fide, and unless hounded throughout, will acquit himself well. After him, the Von Hemel entry offers value if anywhere close to the ML. After that, who knows. It will depend entirely on how the pace scenario unfolds..

Most Likely: #4 The Factor 7-5 7th
Best Value: #1e Von Hemel entry 10-1 5th/12th
Exotics Use: #9 Aracharcharch 12-1 WON ($52.40)
Super Add: #7 Truman's Commander 30-1 13th



CHARLES TOWN


PRE-SCRATCHES


10th: 3rd Charles Town Classic (G3), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Deliriously fun group for the hard-trying little racetrack's first graded stake. Expect it to be wet..

Best Value: #8 Duke of Mischief 8-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #2 Tackleberry 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Gone Astray 10-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Tizway 6-1 3rd


Good luck!
Steve