5/7: Churchill Downs (Derby Day/2nd-13th)

[Kasept]

After all the rotten weather in the Bluegrass for the fortnight leading up to this great weekend, Oaks Day at the Downs ended up a magical afternoon from every perspective. A huge crowd of 110,000 thronged the old plant under a brilliant sky, and the racing provided plenty of thrills and popular winners.

For the second year in a row, the Oaks and its' finish were as thrilling as you could possibly imagine, and as with Evening Jewel a year ago, the result fell a little bit short for me on many tickets. St. John's River (16-1) was a filly I lauded repeatedly leading up to Friday based on her excellent a.m. appearances, and Andy Leggio's Include miss harrowingly threatened Bob Baffert's Plum Pretty in the final strides thanks to a brilliant Rosie Napravnik ride. But for the second time in three years, it was a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro winning the distaffing side of the sophomore classic, providing Baffert with his second win in the race (Silverbulletday). The $130k Peachtree purchase stalked pacesetter Summer Soiree from the outset of the Oaks, and her performance staying on while other front end attendees backed up, confirmed the legitimacy of her runaway effort in the Sunland Oaks last month.

Baffert also beat me in the other leg of the late P4 that I missed, when First Dude ended his reputation as a near-misser annexing the Alysheba in a 6 horse scrambling thriller. The play throughout the card was largely successful, if slightly chalky, with a few key horses generating big returns. In addition to the first pair of P4's ($202 and $94), the American Turf and Edgewood provided the quality hits you look for on a day like Friday, with $312 and $159 triples respectively. In both cases, it was the runner up that made the mutuels attractive as Neil Howard's Close Ally (14-1) got up behind Tom Proctor's favored Banned (3-1) in the Turf, while Ken McPeek's Sassy's Dream (9-1) chased home Dale Romans' Diva Ash (7-2) in the Edgewood. (Sassy's Dream was of course the filly we hooted about on ATR after she thumped Niji's Grand Girl in a workout.)

All told, it was a good start to the weekend, and I hope you did well. Let's get to Saturday's deep card and the main event!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


SCR/CHG'S


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 BIND 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Supreme Ruler 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Worldly 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #3 Eddie Set Go 12-1 5th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Golden Triumph 4-1 6th
Next Best: #4 C J Russell 5-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #9 Tyrus 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Quick Recovery 15-1 4th


4th:OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Persuading 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Perfect Shirl 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #3 Shameless 20-1 4th


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Saratoga Red 3-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Depeche Chat 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Lee Chapel 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Chasing Moonlight 12-1 9th


@$50 ($1) P4 Play:

2: 2
3: 2-4-7-9
4: 1-3-4-7-8-9-10
5: 2-4

1x4x7x2 = $56


6th: 17th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like Chamberlain Bridge isn't where he was for so long. OK as exotics include, but as much as I love him and respect Calhoun, you have to play against as winner at very low tote..

Most Likely: #3 Custom for Carlos 3-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Regally Ready 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #8 Bridgetown 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Early Return 12-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 3rd


7th:25th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

The question coming out of Florida frequently regards whether Team Todd runners will hold form. Hilda's Passion was sensational winning the 'Bertie and Inside Info, but you don't know when those performances are going to manifest themselves with a tailoff. Respect her of course, but be open to options..

Most Likely: #7 Hilda's Passion 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Evening Jewel 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Amen Hallelujah 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Shotgun Gulch 6-1 5th


P4 Play Options ($12-$96):

4: 3-4-7-8 (1-5-9-10)
5: 2-4
6: 2-3-8
7: 7 (3-4-5)

MAIN: 4x2x3x1 = $24 ($1 OR $12 FOR .50)
FULL: 8x2x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96

(SPREAD OR APPLY BACKUPS IN 4th AND 7th BASED ON YOUR BUDGET)


8th: 26th Churchill Ditaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Besides today's feature, this race feels like the day's best opportunity for an exotics score-o. I'll include the lower priced options of course, but I'm willing to be wrong using horses like Vance's Kiss Mine (20-1) and Wilkes' Vivo Per Lei (30-1) for their potential to set off fireworks. That 10-1 on Fantasia is yet another amusing ML. Will be happy getting 50% of that..

Most Likely: #7 Fantasia 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Kiss Mine 20-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Aruna 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Gate SCR


9th: 77th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a strategic rest stop in the late action P-X races, as a place to try to isolate/minimize your multiples. I think Apriority is very tough here and will lean heavily on him, but Regal Ransom's excellent Alysheba try Friday flatters 'Candy', and you want to use him with the top pick to get through multis..

Most Likely: #3 Apriority 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Capt. Candyman Can 9-2 4th
Best Value: #12 Here Comes Ben 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Mythical Power 10-1 9th


10th: 25th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult edition of this event with everything coming down to trip. Little Mike spiked a fever and is SCR'd, but Citrus Kid seems a certain 'draw in' (Caracortado ran Friday and SCR's) which should keep Get Stormy honest. Use as many as you can afford..

Most Likely: #5 Prince Will I Am 5-1 5th
Best Value: #13 Battle of Hastings 12-1 DNF
Next Best: #12 Court Vision 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #4 Moryba 12-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Stately Victor 30-1 11th


11th: 137th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Has been a great run up to Derby these past 2 weeks, and I hope many have been able to draw conclusions about the race from our ATR coverage. Take a big swing. It's annually the game's most unusual race circumstance, and one that is meant to be enjoyed. Good luck and 'Happy Derby'..

1 Archarcharch (10-1): Hurt by draw but not a death knell either; Has worked aggressively..
2 Brilliant Speed (30-1): Will be back early and stay on; Good candidate for bottom of Super, Hi-5..
3 Twice the Appeal (20-1): Borel destroys any value that was available; Looks good physically..
4 Stay Thirsty (20-1): Remaining Pletcher/Repole hope only modestly talented; Trained forwardly..
5 Decisive Moment (30-1): Nice horse and nice story for 50+yo Kerwin Clark; Also-ran..
6 Comma to the Top (30-1): Almost certain as pacesetter; Hard to conceive of finish in top half of chart..
7 Pants On Fire (20-1): Breen/Hall/Napravnik player hard to knock, but hard to see above minor share..
8 Dialed In (4-1): Those doubting fitness status likely misjudging conditioner that's won this twice..
9 Derby Kitten (30-1): Favorite among clockers to be last..
10 Twinspired (30-1): Being ignored and one of the interesting prices that can invade exotics at big number..
11 Master of Hounds (30-1): Being adopted by those searching for path in chaotic race; Will let him beat me..
12 Santiva (30-1): Getting late discussion as clever horse, but board hit would surprise even Kenneally..
13 Mucho Macho Man (12-1): Story too good to be true; Looks wonderful & certain to run his race. Using..
14 Shackleford (12-1): Committed to this hard running red early last week and sticking with; The choice..
15 Midnight Interlude (10-1): J-T combo copped '02 running of this; Going right way and worth including..
16 Animal Kingdom (30-1): Had maybe best pre-Derby machinations; Johnny V. inherits mount. Hmmm..
17 Soldat (12-1): Drew ideally for clear run; Sets up shop on backstretch and takes some catching. Using..
-- SCR
19 Nehro (6-1): "Too attractive" for my approach having done little in lead up to endorse at short number..
20 Watch Me Go (50-1): Nice horse and happy for O'Connell to get here. Hard to suggest for tickets..

As discussed on ATR and in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide, I'll key Shackleford in the top 3 slots in exactas and trifectas with those below (and likely Archarcharch). Odds listed are ML and overnight/current..

Best Value: #14 SHACKLEFORD (12-1/21-1) 4th
Next Best: #17 Soldat (12-1/17-1) 11th
Exotics Use: #8 Dialed In (4-1/5-1) 8th
Super Add: #16 Animal Kingdom (30-1/23-1) WON ($43.80)
Hi-5 Play: #13 Mucho Macho Man (12-1/12-1) 3rd
Also Include: #15 Midnight Interlude (10-1/10-1) 16th


<$50 P5 P6 Play:

7: 7
8: 6-7-10
9: 3-6
10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-14-16-17

1x3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 5-6-7-8-10-11
9: 3-6
10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-14-16-17

6x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96


12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 De Price 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Firm Resolve 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Streakin Mohican 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 After Shock 4-1 5th


13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Gentle Tap 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #3 Shrill 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Shotgun Shine 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Totemtale 8-1 9th


<$100 P4 Play:

10: 4-5-12-13
11: 8-13-14-15-16-17
12: 4-6
13: 1-2-3-5

4x6x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $92


Good luck!
Steve