5/28: Belmont ($30k C/O); Churchill (P5); Arlington (Classic)

[Kasept]

Hard to believe the summer season is about to start, but Memorial Day Weekend is here, and with it comes many strong slates of racing. Belmont complied with the kickoff to the three day holiday with a $30k P6 carryover on today's difficult card, and deep, competitive fields in the Churchill and Arlington stakes anchor good programs in Louisville and Chicago. Thoughts on the NY P6, KY P5 and Arlington Classic below. Have a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day Weekend... ATR from Belmont on Met Mile morning Monday!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$30k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #1 Longhammer 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Big Blue Kitten 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Freshman Dorm 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Eleven Final Fours 5-1 6th


6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Just 7 here but a very dangerous portion of difficult P6 sequence..

Best Value: #6 Artie's Chapter 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Monte Carlo 2-1 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Forty Prayers 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Hot Minute 5-2 4th


7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Bond fave #3 Rocky F faced serious horses in his Florida unveiling including G2 Dixie participant Slews Answer and ALW winners Gathering Cloud and Silver Rock. 4+ months off, but looks dominant here if close to ready. Plenty of choices for underneath to add value though, and Weaver's 15-1 Appian Way has some sibling strength hinting at grass prowess despite the lousy effort first time on weeds..

Most Likely: #3 ROCKY F 2-1 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #5 Appian Way 15-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Rumbletown 4-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Raffie's Choice 12-1 3rd


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another good and tricky race with some distinct contenders and a lurking Lisa Lewis returnee (#8 Untamed Glory 2nd) that should scare the bejeezus out you..

Most Likely: #4 Chalk Player 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #9 Bretton Woods 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 My Man Nell 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Grandma 10-1 7th


9th: 53rd Sheepshead Bay (G2), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD)

Six betting interests and it sure feels like at least 5 can win with the Biancone entry the lone suspects... not a welcome addition to the already daunting sequence(s). As brought up Friday on ATR, you should always feel comfortable forgiving seemingly inexplicable 'off' efforts over the Keeneland turf, as it is not a surface that every lawn loper loves. Under that premise, La Luna de Miel (5-2) commands respect..

Most Likely: #6 La Luna de Miel 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Cheetah 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Hibaayeb 2-1 WON ($4.90)


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

So.. You made it to the nightcap and are 'alive'. Be prepared for agony unless you can cover about 6 in here. Brutal end to a challenging card. Note that Rumbletown (See 7th above) exits the same race as second out Hurricane Hill. Doesn't the brother of the great Wonder Again (#6 Wonder Beyond) have to get it done at some point?

Best Value: #7 Elusive Male 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Wonder Beyond 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Hurricane Hill 6-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Christmas Punch 6-1 WON ($12.80)


<$150 P5 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-9
6: 2-3-6-7
7: 3
8: 4
9: 3-4-6
10: 6-7

3x4x1x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 P6 Conso (5 of 6) Paid $25.00 x 2 = $50.00


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3
8: 3-4-6-8-9
9: 2-3-4-5-6
10: 4-6-7-10

1x5x5x4 = 100 x .50 = $50

.50 P4 (3-4-3-10) Paid $77.10



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Helluva good race..

Best Value: #8 Lady Jadana 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Media Madness 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Breaking Promises 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Paoli Princess 10-1 4th


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Garnet Crystals 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #6 Eye Opener 4-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Goodnessgraciousme 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Golden Phoenix 7-2 3rd


9th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Lake Creek 5-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Shrill 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #7 D'marin 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Son of a General 8-1 4th


10th: 74th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Good edition of this standard with both faves having issues that provide caution. Noble Keertana (2-1) faces males but doesn't enjoy much benefit at the scales, and 9yo stalwart Musketier has to deal with ground loss issues from the 10 hole..

Best Value: #3 Guys Reward 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Keertana 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Musketier 9-5 5th
Super Add: #9 Bearpath 8-1 2nd


11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Wild Tizzy 3-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Perfect Shadow 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Smokinlisa 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lov Toc 4-1 WON ($8.40)
Hi-5 Play: #8 Wildcat Jillee 10-1 4th


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-5-6-7-8
8: 2
9: 1-3-7
10: 3-4-9-10
11: 1-7

5x1x3x4x2 = 120 x .50 = $60


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 2-6
9: 1-3-7
10: 3-4-9-10
11: 1-2-5-7

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

.50 P4 (2-1-4-2) Paid $77.10



ARLINGTON PARK -- STAKES SPOT PLAY


POST-SCRATCHES


9th: 77th Arlington Classic, 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

As great a betting affair as you'll see with a variety of overlays nearly guaranteed by the underlaid ML on Willcox Inn (3-1) and Extensive (7-2). As discussed on Friday ATR with his trainer Ian Wilkes, #3 Fort Larned ran his best career race on grass and should have an ideal trip. 15-1 might not hold, but you're certain to have at least a $20 horse to work around by post time. This is a 'swing for the fences' race..

Best Value: #3 FORT LARNED 15-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Suntracer 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Forbidden Forest 15-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Legendary King 20-1 6th


.50 TRIFECTA PLAY:

3 with 1-2-4-7 with 1-2-4-6-7-9-12 (1x4x6 = 24 x .50 = $12)


Good luck!
Steve