5/29: Belmont Park (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

That wasn't what I expected... What was anticipated as a fun and challenging afternoon Saturday turned into a shocking and bizarre parade of chalk at almost every turn. The result was neutral as despite mostly good views of the action, a profit was just difficult to produce. Was live to two horses in finales of both the Belmont carryover P6 and Churchill P5, but had to settle in both cases for the identical (!) $77.10 P4 payoffs, as well as $50 in 5/6 consos in NY. The festival of low prices invaded the spot play at Arlington as well, where Willcox Inn and the rest of the public choices quashed my ideas about boxcar mutuels in the Classic.

At Churchill, the chance to boost the parlay on P4 at least was dashed in the feature when neither Bearpath or Guys Reward (both 6-1) could out-photo Proctor's uber-mare Keertana (3-2) at the end of the dawdling Louisville Handicap. Miguel Mena gave a great ride to Romans' Guys Reward, backing up the pace onto the hoofs of the field in :54.1, 1:19.1 and 1:45.4 splits. Keertana slipped through an opening off the turn under Jose Lezcano, and fought Guys Reward the rest of the way, but it was Bearpath who was engaging in a rally from last the whole time who was likely best of the trio. Corey Lanerie interfered with Freddie Lenclud and Bearpath's furious charge, jumping right into their lane at the eighth pole. The momentum Bearpath lost for a quartet of beats undoubtedly was the difference 200 yards later at the wire. I talked to a stoic Ian Wilkes minutes after the race, and the good news for him and the Lothenbach 5yo is that the one run style cultivated with Bearpath seems to be what he wants, and the summer season has plenty of opportunities ahead. Wilkes said he will point toward the Man O'War with him.

Hope everyone did well despite the lack of juicy mutuels. Day 2 of the Holiday Weekend is a glance at the second half of today's Belmont card which includes a pair of NY bred grass stakes. Dr. Paul Giacopelli's Loyal Shadow, a half sister to Dee Tee 2yo colt My Pal of Pals (City Zip) whom Paul bred and shares with the stable, makes her black type debut in the Mt. Vernon.


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Kinkora 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Home Rule 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1a My Assets 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #5 Expresso Run 7-2 3rd


7th: 33rd Mt. Vernon-NY, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Chorus Music has clear edge on this group, but after that, the the field is interchangeable for Exacta, Tri and Super monies..

Most Likely: #2 Chorus Music 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Paraiba 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Gitchee Goomee 5-2 WON ($6.00)


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Samyn 16/0-0-0 at stand, and Hertler admittedly dreadful off layoffs, (Thoro-Graph trainer stats show 2% W/18% ITM with returnees off 90 days or more), but Considerate is 15-1, working well for return, and gets ideal stalking set-up with plenty of speed in this. It's a turf sprint and a bit of a weird group. Take a shot..

Best Value: #5 Considerate 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Awakened Beauty 6-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #9 Myrtle's Gray 7-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Holy Blitzer 8-1 7th


9th: 33rd Kingston-NY, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Interesting group with not much speed making Lubash appear a wire threat under sharp-riding Lezcano..

Best Value: #3 Lubash 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pocket Cowboys 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Spa City Fever 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1a (POE) Uncle T Seven 2-1 8th/(5th)


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lemon Drop On Top 7-2 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #4 Loginova 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Gypsy Preacher 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Snipp 30-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2
8: 3-5-6-8-9-10
9: 1-3-6-7
10: 3-4-8

1x6x4x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve