6/26: Belmont Park ($68k C/O); Woodbine (Early P4, Plate)

[Kasept]

Can't say I didn't enjoy the day of racing Saturday, but I did come away frustrated, falling short with two value horses I eagerly anticipated: Midnight Billy and Victory Pete. Midnight Billy had been a victim of circumstances and wide trips of late, and drew inside for the Belmont 8th Saturday. Midnight Billy was the anticipated and delicious 11-1, and capable bug Irad Ortiz Jr. did everything right to finish a rallying second to Bishop of Nola. What prevented the Juan Ortiz trainee from winning was the lack of any pace challenge to the front end victor. Alltiffedoff (Castro) nor Gold Raptor (J. Velazquez), both needing to be up front for their own success, seriously confronted Castellano and Bishop of Nola who was able to set :49.0 and 1:13.2 splits. Despite the pedestrian numbers, Midnight Billy closed from last to get by everyone but the Bruce Brown gelding, quashing everything I had in mind and in hand. Bleech. The good news is that there is a $68k carryover at Belmont today, and one for nearly $100k at Churchill for those who focused their attention at Louisville.

Later at Prairie Meadows, the reverse tri key angle salvaged something when Best Value top choice Victory Pete (8-1) was overhauled by Headache (9-2) and Awesome Gem (2-1) in the late stages of the Cornhusker to produce a $117.40 ($1) triple tote. But frankly, it wasn't what I was hoping for from Victory Pete in terms of result or price. I expected a much bigger tab on the Alexis Barba Cali invader (15-1 ML), though perhaps Bob Baffert's IA Derby win with HOL last out Prayer for Relief 30 minutes earlier generated extra interest in Victory Pete. The bottom line was that Saturday turned into a bit of a leaky vessel, and we'll turn to Sunday to make the weekend a success with Belmont and the Queen's Plate card at Woodbine. Hope you did OK and can muster another day of action!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$68k P6 C/O starts here..

Much more difficult race than it looks at first glance with three 'first time turf' candidates and a FTS in Winloc's John Lee that is a full to solid ALW mare Winloc's Glory Days (16/2-4-4, $117k on lawn). Albertrani's Cool Operator is one of the 2nd timers and will be heavily included, but note that this colt would be the initial 'first turf' winner for sire Suave who has only 2 sod successes of any kind in 39 starts from 25 horses (5% W's; 26% ITM). Gets some pampas pedigree plus from mare, but I'll play against..

Most Likely: #4 City Strut 6-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #3 All Class 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Komisarek 30-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Winloc's John Lee 10-1 4th


6th: 34th Bouwerie-NY, 3yo-F, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Superior Sarah 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Ava K. 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Miss Valentine 2-1 2nd


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Yet another of those challenging state-bred turf events with entire field seperated by a handful of lengths. Looks like there are enough front-end interested parties to keep the pace honest, though there are no true 'need the lead' types. Will not surprise if we see this group bunched up on the backstretch before someone produces themselves..

Best Value: #7 Makeminechocolate 5-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Shakeira 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Sarah's Pleasure 12-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Lemon Tiger 6-1 5th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Both of the Chad Brown favorites are OK, but neither is better than than the three better priced options below, and anything near her last makes Sing My Song a winner at a sweet number..

Best Value: #8 SING MY SONG 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Mystic City 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Settling Seas 8-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Tale Untold 8-1 6th


9th: 32nd Mike Lee-NY, 3yo, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Bug Juice 2-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Pin Number 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Preachintothedevil 6-1 WON ($10.40)


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Competitive finale with perhaps half the field eligible for laurels. After the obvious players, Wise Choice will be an enormous price (30-1 ML) and ran a race on AQU turf 12/9/10 that can compete here. Meanwhile, Nice Stuff (20-1 ML) SCR'd returns to the scene of her graduation, gets almost 10# from everyone and may have upside yet..

Most Likely: #6 Ready to Party 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Wise Choice 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Bobs Pinup Girl 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 River Fancy 7-2 WON ($6.30)


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 4
6: 1-2-5
7: 1-7-10
8: 4-8
9: 4-5-6
10: 6

1x3x3x2x3x1 = 54 x $2 = $108


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-7-10
8: 1-4-5-8
9: 4-5-6
10: 2-5-6-8

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



WOODBINE


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #3 Aerial View 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Eddie Set Go 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #4 Doctor Jack 10-1 -
Exotics Use: #8 Pit Alley 6-1 4th


5th: 58th Highlander (G2), 3+, 6f-T (P3, Super)

How long can Heros Reward keep showing up at this venue to steal purses? Typically wide open turf dash, but look for Jungle Wave to leap forward with the retun to the lawn..

Best Value: #6 JUNGLE WAVE 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Stormy Lord 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Silver Timber 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Heros Reward 8-1 3rd


6th: ON-ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Pink My Ride 7-5 5th/7th
Best Value: #6 Shuffled Around 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Flashing Honor 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 R Unpainted Dancer 4-1 WON ($14.50)


7th: 7th Singspiel (G3), 3+, 12f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Rahy's Attorney 9-5 5th
Next Best: #7 Musketier 2-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #4 Windward Islands 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Simmard 7-2 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 3-4-6-8
5: 6-7
6: 1-6-7
7: 2-4-7

4x2x3x3 = $72


10th: 152nd Queen's Plate, CND-bred 3yo, 10f (P3, Super)

Always enjoyable start to the Canadian Triple Crown and one of the world's most famous races, this edition feels like Check Your Soul's race to lose. Couldn't have been more impressive in the Trial, and trainer Attfield likely stands alone at day's end with an outlandish 9th Plate win. Respect the Woodbine Oaks winner Inglorious and will use her in the exotics, but key to wagers may be other Carroll-Donver runner Seawatch at 20-1..

Most Likely: #13 Check Your Soul 3-1 7th
Best Value: #12 Seawatch 20-1 6th
Next Best: #14 Queen'splatekitten 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #16 Bowman's Causeway 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Oh Canada 10-1 13th


Good luck!
Steve