7/25: Saratoga (Day 3; Sanford)

[Kasept]

Out of the gate in good order the first two days at the Spa, as despite any especially large hit, the full, competitive fields give us all a chance to right wrongs with any square success. Before looking at the notable trends and outcomes though, how about a pause to appreciate the season's first G1 tilt? Leading up to Saturday, we talked on ATR about the sure-to-prove fascinating 5 horse chess match that the CCAO appeared to be on paper, and the result was an instantly epic duel between Acorn winner It's Tricky and Kentucky Oaks heroine Plum Pretty that went decisively to the former.

The win by It's Tricky, who subtly moved from Darley maroon to Godolphin blue ahead of the event, confirmed what many said all winter about the emergent quality of the Mineshaft bay that was one of the last foal bred by the McNairs before selling their Stonerside operation. Other than the misstep of shipping It's Tricky to Gulfstream mid-winter for an Oaks try there, Kiaran and Neal McLaughlin, Artie Magnuson and their staff have been perfect with the pro-tem leader of the 3yo filly division. The Coaching Club ideally sets up a titanic Alabama, where most from Saturday's quintet are expected to be joined by Josie Carroll's Queens' Plate victress Inglorious and John Sadler's Hollywood Oaks winner Zazu.

In terms of mutuel conversation from days one and two, why not wonder aloud how the Oaks result produced a $73.00 trifecta ($2) from the top three choices? Plum Pretty (1.80) and Royal Delta (2.00) were near co-favorites, with It's Tricky (4.40) shading Buster's Ready (4.40) as third choice. The bulbous return is indicative of how liquidity in the Saratoga pools helps rewards being correct joyously.

From an individual win tote standpoint, Friday's 6th and Saturday's 4th were spots where simply gravitating toward contenders that were drifting away on the board proved lucrative whether you were rolling P3's or betting on the nose. Pico Dinero was 10-1 in the tough $20k/N2L on opening day, and was a $30 horse at points leading up to the race. He produced a $27.20 cash and $85 exacta (with Short Shrift) and $190 P3 taking advantage of a turf course kind to front end speed. Wishingonastar was 6-1 to start the wagering, and went into the gate at nearly twice that number to bingo for $24.60. When easy to have Dynafortwo and obvious Capital Market followed with their successful exploits, you had a $275.00 P3. Hope everyone is doing well and has been catching enough of the hits. Stay confident if not... It's a long meet.

Before we turn attention to Day 3, quick mention should be made about Friday's James Marvin which saw likeable Jackson Band break a long losing skein. As I said on Capital OTB's "Loose on the Lead" Saturday, Nick Zito, assistant Tim Poole, Calder-based Stanley Gold, career resurrection hopeful Corey Nakatani and the plucky son of Hear No Evil, all should come away from the result feeling proud and good. Jackson Bend (108 Beyer) beat a diminished but still solid field of Forego aspirants, and though he is less likely to win that G1 later in the meet, he appears whole again after some over-reaching Triple Crown folly a year ago. Wayne Lukas deserves plaudits for having Hamazing Destiny ready for a stalwart effort of the layoff too, as the speedy 5yo Salt Lake -- second in the BC Sprint when last seen -- ran too well to lose.

Sunday card features the G2 Sanford and Repole-Pletcher steamer Overdriven, but personal focus is the Maiden $20k 5th with Dee Tee Stables pleased to finally get Lloydobler into a race at the Spa. The handsome chestnut is as healthy as he's been in over a year, and gets back to the main track after three fitness-building jaunts on turf. Miguel Mena, who booted Ausable Chasm to the Lime and Royal's emotional Saratoga win a year ago, takes the reins and should fit the Smarty Jones gelding well.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Shakeira is nothing special as a 5-2 fave. Having Solis keeps her in the picture, but there are plenty of better options at square prices..

Most Likely: #9 Glory in Motion 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Lemon Tiger 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Catchapenny K 15-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Shakeira 5-2 2nd


2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Serpe, nursing a broke rib and ankle, sends the highly-likely and very short-priced Flying Zee entry.. NOTE: 1a The Prize Fighter is a SCR..

Most Likely: #4 Dehere of the Cat 7-2 WON ($6.50)
Next Best: #2 Swag Daddy 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Half Lit 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Readbytheline 12-1 4th


3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Typically tricky turf sprint..

Best Value: #9 Isn'tlovejustgrand 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 D'oro Dancer 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Running Tap 12-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Luigi P 15-1 2nmd


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Six betting interests but well-balanced..

Most Likely: #1a Happy Bull 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #3 Sun Dance Moon 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Fordangshore 3-1 5th


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

I'm not sure I've ever selected a Dee Tee runner on top to avoid the hoodoo and 'homer' accusations, but Lloyd is my favorite, and return to dirt, outside draw, recent drills, hustling rider and big price all reasons to believe..

Best Value: #8 Lloydobler 15-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Afleet's Acclaim 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Lemon Ghost 10-1 4th
Super Add: #9 War Colony 6-1 WON ($17.10)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4
3: 2-8-9
4: 1-3-4-5
5: 4-5-8-9-11-12

2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th:CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Coaltown Legend 8-1 WON ($16.00)
Next Best: #8 Katskill Bay 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 The Zipster 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 System Restore 15-1 2nd


7th: Irish Linnet-NY, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Gitchee Goomie 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Mystic City 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Chorus Music 5-2 WON ($8.10)
Super Add: #2 Paraiba 5-1 5th


8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Interesting turf route for diploma seekers. Good betting opp..

Best Value: #5 Brilliant Future 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Enrichment 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Splendid 15-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Virtously 5-1 4th


9th: 97th Sanford (G2), 2yo, 6f (DD, Super)

They have to run the race, but half brother of Smooth Air certainly will take some beating here after spectacular debut and plenty of time since..

Most Likely: #6 Overdriven 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #8 Jack in the Deck 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Power World 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Tarpy's Goal 12-1 5th


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Would love to come up with clever price here as the principals seem interchangeable -- usually a recipe for an upset..

Most Likely: #2 Frothy Market 7-2 6th
Best Value: #12 Winery 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 She Drives Me Wild 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Lemme 5-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-8-9
8: 1-2-5-8
9: 6
10: 1-2-4-12

4x4x1x4 = $64 ($32 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve