7/30: Saratoga (Day 8; Diana, Jim Dandy, $40k C/O)

[Kasept]

Late day outburst put damper on twilight racing at the Spa Friday, but still a fun afternoon for the enthusiastic College Day crowd. Got a couple licks in early on the slate with first two P3's falling at $104 and $190, which proved enough to exit the day level. Mott second time out/first time turf Reach a Decision proved capable in that MDN 2nd we discussed, and the $26+ win tote was certainly surprising. Colossal Gift ran a predictable second from the outpost, which produced an OK $48 exacta. Not a great day but hardly a bad one. Hope you did well! Superb weekend upon us... Graham Motion and Tom Durkin join Seth Merrow and I on Capital OTB TV-12's "Loose on the Lead" Saturday morning 9-10a.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Zapparition 2-1: Owns class edge; Saves ground.. 6th
Best Value: #4 Sing My Song: A personal fave; Career best form.. 7th
Next Best: #6 La Reine Lionne 6-1: May move up on lawn with cut.. 2nd
Super Add: #7 Hasay 6-1: Motion has had 6 weeks to adjust import.. 4th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Stealcase 7-2: Turning into 'universal good thing'.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Officer Prado 4-1: Dawdled in bow early, picked it up late.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Doctorious 6-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Giant Surprise 3-1 WON ($7.80)


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent ALW route with several 3yo's that could yet find themselves in the Travers or PA Derby..

Most Likely: #1 Windswept 5-1: If more than a closing sprinter.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Gallant Dreams 6-1: Two-turning may be his best thing.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Malibu Glow 2-1: Obviously with big chance, but 2-1? WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Jack London 3-1: Will call on Waquoit mare's stamina.. 3rd


4th:NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 With a Cape 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Sebago Bay 5-2 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Ambassador Bridge 6-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Stonemill 12-1 10th


5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

#11 (AE) Gimme Credit (5-1) will be a use should he draw in..

Most Likely: #9 Alyarf 5-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Veiled Prospect 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Monument Hill 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Gimme Credit 5-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3
3: 1-2-3-8
4: 3-8
5: 5-6-7-8-9-11

1x4x2x6 = $48 ($24 for .50)


6th:MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Tough way to start this tremendously challenging P6 carryover ($40k) sequence..

Most Likely: #6 Captain Webb 3-1 WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #3 Saturday Classic 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Honor Call 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Colbert 5-1 9th


7th: OC/N3X, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very quirky third level ALW with some consistent hard-hitters..

Most Likely: #8 Dark Thunder 5-2: Pletcher aquiree appears much better as 4yo.. WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #6 Spirit of Cochise 8-1: Levine tabs Ramon for vet with pace options.. 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Tahitian Warrior 2-1: Gets hood and got over surface well last year.. 5th
Super Add: #9 China 6-1: May be overlooked; Zipped over strip preparing for this.. 4th


8th: Hattie Moseley, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Starformer 4-1: Mott-Juddmonte bay Group 3 try a fit here.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Sassy's Dream 10-1: Owns hidden form; Lone entrant with 3 wins.. 9th
Next Best: #6 Ruthenia 7-2: Hasn't quite gone on as 3yo as envisoned.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Japanese Garden 20-1: Dam was OK on turf; Worth a stab.. 6th


9th: 73rd Diana (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Delightful assembly of turf fillies and mares. Important to know where Canani goes with cross-entered, pace-setting type Romacaca (SCR'D)..

Most Likely: #1 Unbridled Humor 4-1: Untrainable miss spots Graded Stakes experience; Upside unkown.. 7th
Best Value: #5 Bay to Bay 6-1: Will be underbet; Lynch, Sligo Bay 4yo always acquit themselves.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Aviate 5-1: Came up empty in Just a Game, but this event in Juddmonte wheelhouse.. 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Aruna 3-1: "Other" Motion miss 3/2-1-0 in GS since November but needs set up.. 2nd


10th: 48th Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Fun edition of this traditional Travers prep sees Jimmy Baker add significant pace pressure on Dominus with Will's Wildcat. While Asmussen trainee (Dominus) is absolutely the horse to beat, he could be vulnerable late if hounded by Will's Wildcat who has benefit of outside lane. Will also be interesting to see if Leparoux gets cooperation from Dominus to turn tables on pace foe by letting him go early. Since this race looks chalky, note that Reade Baker brings Albert the Great son Moonshine Mullin in from Woodbine for his first start on conventional dirt. Though his sire was 7th in his own Jim Dandy try, he was beaten 3 weeks later by an excruciating head by Unshaded and earned $3,000,000 racing on main tracks. Why can't Moonshine Mullin leap forward 'first dirt' and boost the exotics?

Most Likely: #2 Dominus 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Moonshine Mullin 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Alternation 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Brilliant Speed 7-2 5th


10th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

A hard to seperate turf sprint group to end the day..

Most Likely: #15 Hero Figure 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1a My Golden Opinion 6-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #4 In Just We Trust 4-1 5th
Super Add: #13 Scorch the Torch 8-1 4th


<$200 P5 P6 Play:

6: 3-5-6-8
7: 2-6-8-9
8: 8
9: 1-5-7
10: 2
11: 1-15

4x4x1x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5-6-8-10
9: 1-4-5-6-7
10: 2
11: 1-4-15

5x5x1x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve