9/2: Saratoga (Day 36; Riskaverse)

[Kasept]

Fun and successful Thursday thanks to Jimmy Baker's $30.40 Bergerac in the 7th, but another 5 of 6 conso in Guaranteed P6 was a little maddening. For perhaps the 3rd or 4th time recently, I was stung by downgrading the chances of an out-posted horse on the grass. Although I wouldn't have used him in the P6 anyway, #11 Get a Grip, (off as the 2nd choice), was a horse worthy of a lot more respect despite the extreme starting slot. Edgar Prado, getting improved mounts and riding better as the meet has gone on, worked out a good trip on the Team Valor trainee and won in exciting fashion.

An hour earlier, Prado provided ATR listeners and myself with a big present as Bergerac attended the pace and held onrushing foes safe late at a fat 14-1. Trainer Jim Baker has spent a delightful half hour on the show Thursday, and the Rahy 4yo's prospects couldn't have been stressed to players any more enthusiastically. Bergerac helped clear some P6 players out, and having another 4 winners on the $144 play got back $316. Getting all was worth $14k. Bergerac also was the key to $200 in P3's between the 6th-9th.

The first half of the card produced a couple of huge prices, as $54 Arch Support and $44 Monteagle helped trip a $5,400 (.50) P4 payoff. All in all, it was a good day, and I hope everyone did well. Twilight racing starts at 2:30p Friday as we begin the 4 day season-ending Labor Day weekend!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Temecula Creek 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Sunrise Smarty 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Starforaday 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Saint Daimon 12-1 5th


2nd: Gold N Roses-NY, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Difficult group to separate. Although 'fastest' on figs, Bay Park Boy excelled in sloppy conditions being bred ideally (Johannesburg) and built suitably being petite and possessing 'deer feet'. The rest, including maiden Jaw Crusher, are all equal more or less based on their previous start..

Best Value: #2 Dehere of the Cat 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Jaw Crusher 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 The Prize Fighter 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Zow 2-1 WON ($4.10)


3rd: Sightseek, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Wait a minute... Wasn't this named the Distorted Humor on Sunday? Despite having a cast of sprinters, only Higher Court looks to need the lead. Chipshot can press from underneath him if Castellano chooses, and Desormeaux gets a blinkered Free Entry from outside Higher Court, so maybe the pace gets pressed? Good cat and mouse type of race that may play right into the hands of favored Wine Police..

Most Likely: #1 Wine Police 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Chipshot 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Philippe 8-1 4th


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

If you're playing tris/supers, include #11 Desert Bliss (12-1) who has a license to be OK in this setting..

Most Likely: #9 Landlubber 7-2 DNF
Exotics Use: #8 Ladywell Court 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Proud and Charming 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Stock Fund 9-2 3rd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 8-9 with 8-9-10 with 2-8-9-10-11 with ALL (2x2x3x8 = 96 x .10 = $9.60)


5th: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 A Single Man 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Raconteur 5-2 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4-6
3: 1-2
4: 8-9-10
5: 3-5-7

4x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 River Fancy 6-1 WON ($14.20)
Next Best: #4 Ms Stilleto 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Higher Incentive 8-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Australis Princess 5-2 5th

.10 SUPER PLAY: Key 2 in top 2 slots with 3-4-5-6-9 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 60 + 60 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

$.10 Superfecta (2-4-9-3) Paid $84.45


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Barrel of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 All Class 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Joey's Chance 15-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Isn'tlovejustgrand 12-1 WON ($13.40)


8th: 3rd Riskaverse, 3yo-F, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very nice group that appears to have several developing missies..

Best Value: #7 Elusive Pearl 10-1 WON ($19.80)
Next Best: #3 Starformer 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Divalarious 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Indian Pond 6-1 8th


9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Deep and slightly mysterious set..

Best Value: #7 Namaskara 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 An Absolute Ten 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Now Smile 8-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Wet One 8-1 3rd


10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Golden Causeway 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Midnite Silver 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Red Leader 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Short Shrift 3-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #7 Pavoratti's Soul 30-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-7
8: 3-4-7
9: 5-6-7-11
10: 4-6-10-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve