Soumillion on Librettist

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know u asked BTW but here's my take on this horse. I think he's a longshot at best. He's been unsuccessful three times now when moving up to grade one company. I think that's important because I looked and every European shipper that has won the Mile except for Domedriver has had at least one grade one win prior to winning the Mile. And Domedriver had at least run second in a grade one. European sprinters have done ok in the Mile (Last Tycoon and Royal Academy come to mind) and that gives some hope to a horse like Sleeping Indian but I think there accomplished milers to take him seriously. Also, both times he tried a mile in stakes company, the comment line says he faded. One last thing is that the Challenge Stakes, the race he just won, doesn't have a history as a producer of Mile wins. Only three of the winners have come over for the Mile but none were a factor and in fact, no horse that's finished on the board in that race has ever been a factor in the Mile. In my opinion, he's the longest shot of the European invaders.

Great analysis- thanks KG. I'm looking for all the help I can get on the European contenders. What were the 3 winners that previously came over, and did they have similar credentials?

I'm trying to dig deep on this one, as I can poke holes in all of the top contenders outside of Gorella- and even she may be compromised as I don't see a ton of pace in this race relative to most years. BoS may end up on the lead by default and I wouldn't trust him with anyone's money off the long layoff. He got away on the front end in his last but those were glacial fractions for Santa Anita. Aragorn will probably get first jump, but losing ground late to the unaccomplished and nowhere near this group's level Courtnall scares me. Coming home in 23 3/5 won't be good enough. Librettist seems to be the logical choice but his horrible result last out is a cause for concern. Araafa isn't exactly a win machine- and the Goodwood race leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The other euro that is intriguing on a pace/current form perspective is Echo of Light. no match in the Goodwood race but considering he has some reasonable early foot he may find himself in the first flight into the turn which is huge, he'll be able to settle right off of BoS- he's coming off a solid G2 win at Longchamp and appears to relish firmer turf more than the other invaders. thoughts?