5-yr-old 1st timer at Penn National with interesting background

[Dunbar]

In a front page article, the Harrisburg Patriot-News tells the story about a 5-yr-old mare making her first start on Thursday at Penn National. She's the daughter of a racing mare that was bought in 2003 for $175 to be saved from slaughter.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/ind...te_raceho.html

The daughter is Patty Ore, and she's entered in the 2nd race.

It's a nice story, and I was curious enough about the race to check out the entries. I was surprised to see her listed at 8-1. So then I checked the PP's. The trainer's 2011 ROI's for Dirt, Sprint, and Mdn Claimers are all under $0.85. The mare's last work (Mar 6) was 4f in 52.4. The previous listed work was 3f in 41.2 (Feb 12). Hmmm... 8-1?! Okay, it's a maiden claimer, but what's to like? Then I checked the rest of the 8-horse field.

Only 1 of the other 7 fillies and mares has a last race Beyer greater than "11". Three fillies have never had a BSF greater than "-0". One of those has had 6 starts, all with a "-0" BSF. And she's 12-1. That helped me understand the 8-1 on the 1st-timer.

--Dunbar