3/16: Santa Anita (1st-8th)

[Kasept]

Made spirited run at Aqueduct carryover sequence Thursday with absence of old friend Freud's Notebook the difference between $232 of consos and the $18k reward for perfection. The $16.20 key to the sextet won the only way she could, taking control early from vulnerable Alphabet Jamerica and wiring the field. I had hoped the former Pont St. Stable NYB stake winner would soften up Jamerica for Quixsand to overhaul, but the plucky pacesetter kept going and ultimately drew off. And Quixsand stunk. Luckily respected the winner enough to use in the P4 which was fruitful to the turn of $306 for the $48 investment. Earlier, chalky quad was good for $78.10 ($40.50 play), but if 2nd race photo goes to 19-1 Scrap Dragon instead of 4-5 Ventura Bob, the payoff balloons towards $300 or more. It was a fun afternoon and certainly profitable, but that $18,000 was a liberal jackpot given the sequence... Hope everybody did well! Santa Anita drew my interest going into the weekend.


SANTA ANITA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 4yo-F, 6f (Place Pick All, P5, P3, DD)

Queenie Marini is the better filly but For You My Heart has no one to accompany her up front. Budget P5 plays can single short-priced fave but balanced approach says you need both..

Most Likely: #3 For You My Heart 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #4 Queenie Marini 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Girls Lacrosse 4-1 3rd


2nd MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super):

This is an awful group and while the .50 fave looks vulnerable, there isn't a whole lot of encouraging alternatives making themselves evident..

Most Likely: #4 Missie Ky I You 1-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Depistry 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Key Allegro 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Whole Enchilada 5-1 WON ($14.80)


3rd: MSW, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Fordham Road 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Anabaa Premium 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Dynamize 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Unex Dali 12-1 6th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Companion ALW to Gulfstream heat earlier with another serious set of 3yo's tangling. Consulado had misfortune of running into Fed Biz last, but will take some beating here as outside controling speed depending on Espinoza's deployment of T2D turnback Hodge and Baffert first time 3yo Night Tide. Baffert's other player here Brigand gets first chance on dirt while Asmussen Sham flop Hierro tries to right the ship from tricky launch berth..

Most Likely: #7 Consulado 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Brigand 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Hierro 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Congrats Ski 8-1 5th


5th: CLM, FM-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Going for a Spin 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Glorified 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Charm the Crowd 3-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Bella Swan 7-2 3rd


<$50 P5 Play:

1: 3-4
2: 4
3: 1-3-6-10
4: 1-3-7
5: 1-6-7

2x1x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36


<$25 P4 Play:

2: 4
3: 1-3-6-10
4: 1-3-7
5: 1-6-7

1x4x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Top pair are tough to separate and Rosario money may end up making Caffeine High the fave over Cyclometer..

Most Likely: #9 Cyclometer 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #5 Caffeine High 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Delta Fix 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Liberal Arts 7-2 5th


7th: S/ALW,3yo, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Treacherous looking turf starter. Taking a shot with price The Bien's Gift (15-1) based on Gallagher's gaudy turf move numbers, form cycle and race flow positives..

Best Value: #6 The Bien's Gift 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Baby Blake 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Go to the Pulpit 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 War Politics 6-1 WON ($24.60)


8th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Warren's Performer 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Elusive Spirit 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Lily's Tiz 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Winforlin 8-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Pride Hunter 5-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1-6
4: 7
5: 1-6-7
6: 5-9
7: 2-3-6-10
8: 1-8

2x1x3x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (1,8/8/6/7,8,9/3/1) Paid $257.60 (5OF6)


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-6-7-9
6: 5-9
7: 2-3-5-6-8-10
8: 1-4-8

4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/7,8,9/3/1) Paid $135.75


Good luck!
Steve