#16
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The impact of the stories and the Borels of the world etc. is significant.
Last year, Pants on Fire (Rosie) was the second favorite in the Derby at odds of 8-1, yet he was the 10th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double. Twice the Appeal (Borel) was the world's biggest underlay at 12-1 in the Derby, but was the 14th ranked horse in the Oaks/Derby double. Watch Me Go was just 34-1, one tick lower than Comma to the Top, despite the double to Watch Me Go paying $2,068 vs. $883 for Comma. ...and there are plenty more examples going back. With so much "fun money" in the win pool, it's never a true gauge of how the horseplayer public is playing the race. |