5/5: Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby Day)

[Kasept]

Arrive at Derby Day feeling fortunate to have had a single notion in La Troienne heroine Juanita that made it possible to keep head above water with a devious main track that played opposite of way it had been leaning Tuesday-Thursday. After starting to see inside speed do well before Friday, outer paths turned out to be the key to success up until the weather delay that sealed the track ahead of the Oaks. And after outside rallyers or stalkers spent the day overhauling pacesetters, Believe You Can and Broadway's Alibi ran 1-2 all the way around in a race that had almost nothing lined up but front-end interested players.

Suggestion of protecting against heavy La Troienne favorite Plum Pretty (2-5!) with 'Best Value' 2nd choice Juanita was fortunate as the reformed claimer took the garden outside stalking path and won easily. Her $35.40 tote generated P3's of $260, $207 and $149 covered all of the day's other multis and then some. The .50 P4 returned $409 if you used Juanita on a back-up with the 3 chalky winners before and after. American Turf proved out as the day's most challenging betting affair and biggest frustration as Romans' Silver Max ran a remarkable race wire to wire to deny my key Travel Advisory (24-1) who arrived far too late to be 2nd. All in all, one of those days where you come away ready to fight today knowing you could have been luckier or you could have been beaten up badly.

As I write (now 4:30a), thunderstorms continue in the area and are forecast into mid-morning before expected clearing. So where are we with a racetrack that retiring superintendent Butch Lehr will groom for one last Derby Saturday? Hard to say right now. The Churchill main dries quickly and there is a chance that training is cancelled this morning if rain is still falling so they do not have to unseal it. You will have to monitor the surface today and be prepared to adjust your thinking and approach accordingly. Not an ideal way to go into one of the most anticipated betting cards of the year.

WEATHER UNDERGROUND LINK

Hope you did OK Friday, that we can make the most of today and that everyone enjoyed ATR coverage of Oaks-Derby 2012!


CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 138TH KENTUCKY DERBY


POST-SCRATCHES


4TH OFF THE TURF, MAIN MUDDY & WILL DRY OUT AS DAY PROGRESSES


1st: OC/N2X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Atigun (7-5) isn't that special..

Best Value: #5 Politicallycorrect 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Point Taken 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Afford 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Atigun 7-5 WON ($4.20)


2nd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Big Ring 9-2 WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #10 Vasten 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Kingwood 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Master Clip 8-1 5th


NOTE: MAIN TRACK NOW MIRACULOUSLY FAST


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Faves appear simply better than the rest here. Notice that Coolmore cleverly gets Daddy Long Legs pilot Colm O'Donohue an early mount with Revolving..

Most Likely: #5 Golden Ticket 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Windsurfer 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Z Dager 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Event Center 15-1 10th


4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Tonto Fontenot 6th
Next Best: #6 Stay Put 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 The Program 2nd
Super Add:# 11 Cool C Note 7th


5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Thermal Cat 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mile High Magic 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Macho Macho 12-1 WON ($17.00)
Super Add: #5 Big Blue Nation 6-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-9-10
3: 5-7-10
4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-6

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: 18th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Bridgetown feels like a free square toward the guaranteed P6 pool which already starts with a $269k carry..

Most Likely: #4 Bridgetown 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Great Attack 8-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #10 Great Mills 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1 6th


7th: 78th Churchill Downs, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Wildly deep and tough group. Who would surprise you here? Even 20-1 Gantry is within the realm. Will's Wildcat gets the desirable outside pressing trip and Amazombie always runs his race..

Best Value: #8 Will's Wildcat 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Amazombie 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Smiling Tiger 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Hamazing Destiny 15-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

4: 2-6-11-12
5: 3-6
6: 4
7: ALL

4x2x1x8 = $64 ($32 for .50)


8th: 27th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Proctor and Marketing Mix the ones to beat with the next few within range firing best shots..

Most Likely: #3 Marketing Mix 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 La Reine Lionne 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Hungry Island 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #8 City to City 15-1 7th


9th: 26th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Another terrific edition of this event which includes return of '11 upsetter Sassy Image. As will be the case all day, how track is playing will be key to this as there isn't the kind of pace lined up that you'd expect and Carla Gaines' Mildly Offensive could steal away if speed holding..

Best Value: #5 Mildly Offensive 20-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Musical Romance 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Switch 2-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Magical Feeling 30-1 3rd


10th: 26th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like the race on the card that will play the most straightforwardly with speeds assuring a fair chance for all styles..

Most Likely: #2 Turallure 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Doubles Partner 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Slim Shadey 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Brilliant Speed 12-1 3rd


11th: 138th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Can't predict status of surface by post time, but have discussed most scenarios about this storied feature and will continue to presume a hot pace leads to a meltdown. Overnight odds below make Union Rags clear favorite at 5-1 with Take Charge Indy, Dullahan, Bodemeister, Hansen and Gemologist all hovering between 8-1 and 9-1.

1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 26
2 Optimizer D. Lukas Jon Court 31
3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 8
4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 5
5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 9
6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 8
7 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 31
8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12
9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 40
10 Daddy Nose Best Steven Asmussen Garrett Gomez 13
11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 21
12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 60
13 Went the Day Well H. Motion John Velazquez 27
14 Hansen Michael Maker Ramon Dominguez 9
15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 8
16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 30
17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 32
18 Sabercat Steven Asmussen Corey Nakatani 36
19 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 15
20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 58

The most glaring overlay on the win tote is Prospective as bizarrely, the longest shot on the board at 60-1. He has trained very well into the race and would particularly love it wet. El Padrino at 30-1 gains added interest with the off track potential. I will work around my original concept in the XpressBet Derby Wagering Guide tabbing of Dullahan, El Padrino, Sabercat and Done Talking and while utilizing a few other hard-to-avoid types (Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Gemologist -- and now Prospective) in the gimmicks. Don't be shy about going with what you like in this race. It was a particularly tough edition of the race going in and is now thrown into a bigger quandary by surface questions. Enjoy Derby 2012!

Most Likely: #5 Dullahan (8-1 ML/9-1 Current) 3rd
Best Value: #12 Prospective (30-1 ML/60-1 Current) 18th
Next Best: #16 El Padrino (20-1 ML/30-1 Current) 13th
Exotics Use: #18 Sabercat (30-1 ML/36-1 Current) 15th
Super Add: #17 Done Talking (50-1 ML/32-1 Current) 14th

<$30 .50 TRI: Key 5 with 3-4-12-15-16-17-18-20 with 3-4-12-15-16-17-18-20 (1x8x7 = 56 x .50 = $28)


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 1-6-8
8: 3-9-10
9: 1-5-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5

1x3x3x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-6-8
8: 3
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5-12-16

4x1x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-9-10
9: 1-3-5-6-7-8
10: 2-6
11: 5-12-16-18

3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 BET THE POWER 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Enclosure 8-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Goodtimehadbyall 12-1 4th


13th: MSW, 3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dynamical 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Parabellum 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Nicklaus Way 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Z Camelot 4-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

10: 2-6
11: 3-4-5-6-7-10-11-12-15-16-18-19
12: 2-5/SCR
13: 1-5-7

2x12x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve