5/9: Belmont Park ($37k C/O)

[Kasept]

After luckily escaping Oaks Day intact, got nothing right on Derby Day and exited Louisville Saturday night having taken a bad beating. When I had a notion or inclusion with potential, I was wrong about something else that prevented any meaningful cashings. Was fine with 6-1 Hungry Island winning the Distaff Turf, but Tapitsfly's good effort interupted the tri. Had prepared for 11-1 Slim Shadey to run well in the Woodford Reserve but watched in disbelief as Little Mike just kept going.

As for Derby, I wasn't nearly as frustrated by its' outcome as the rest of the day's... I had looked for a meltdown scenario and played that way keying off Dullahan, but the pace frying concept didn't materialize between Bodemeister's remarkable performance and a speed-assisting surface. I'll Have Another was a horse that I couldn't endorse making just a 3rd start in 8 months and Bodemeister was being asked for a special effort at too short a price to take. I said pre-race that I thought Bodemeister's assignment was a Big Brown type of situation and I played against him as well. Those are the tough decisions to make playing Derby and you can be very right or very wrong.

Had no complaints about my top choice as Desormeaux and Dullahan put their run in and fell 2 lengths short while the presser-closers I was looking for like Sabercat, El Padrino and Done Talking never put a run together at all. Prospective's race was over in the first 40 yards when clipping heels with Hansen and nearly losing Contreras. It was that kind of day and I hope my lack of success didn't doom your weekend. One thing to note coming out of Derby Day is quixotic results the stakes-laden card produces annually. Andy Serling noted that every year it seems some results are generated that defy explanation in the sequence and a review of the last 6 years backs that up. Very few favorites manage to come through on the Derby card and it should be remembered for next year...

Turf Sprint/Eight Belles: $10.80, $8.80, $17.80, $9.60, $5.60, $11.60
Churchill Downs: $5.60, $28.60, $22.20, $10.60, $10.80, $18.40
Churchill DIS Turf: $13.80, $13.20, $15.40, $19.80, $26.20, $9.00
Humana Distaff: $8.20, $34.20, $19.20, $8.40, $30.00, $17.20
Woodford Reserve: $26.40, $17.00, $19.60, $5.60, $6.40, $18.80
Kentucky Derby: $32.60, $43.80, $18.00, $103.20, $6.80, $11.80

Carryover at Belmont Wednesday and don't forget that Thursday offers a huge Hi-5 C/O on the Downs nightcap...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$37k C/O starts here..

The 4 droppers from MSW company (#'s 1-3-7-9) look right..

Most Likely: #1 Prince Arion 3-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #3 Secret Shifters 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Big Herman 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Redhotlion 15-1 7th


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bellarella 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 My Honey Laurie 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Full N Sassy 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Roman Renegade 6-1 6th


6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #15 Ea 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Red Leader 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Winaholic 12-1 4th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Fast Fleet Cat 5-1 11th
Next Best: #4 More Than Minted 7-5 8th
Exotics Use: #14 Readygetsgold 6-1 4th
Super Add: #13 My Trickster 6-1 6th


8th: Marta, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Chess match group of 5 for this little stake and with very little pace present, look for Dominguez to control things with Hammy Smith's Aquitania..

Most Likely: #1 Aquitania 2-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #5 Her Smile 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Late Stakes SCR (Wet track)


9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #16 Bedda Regina 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #6 World Premier 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 So Much Heart 12-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Proud Siren 20-1 7th


<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3
5: 3-5-8
6: 15
7: 2-4-13-14
8: 1
9: 6-15-16

2x3x1x4x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 10-11-15
7: 2-4-13-14
8: 1-5
9: 1-6-15-16

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve