Excellent article on declining Beyer's of 3yo's

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

No. You're bringing wind, pace, and trip into this and those are things that you know they don't account for.

If you took 5 competent figure makers -- and had them make a Beyer on a typical day when you have consistent weather conditions, accurate clockings, a race track that isn't being fooled around with a lot throughout the day, and a reasonable sampling of both sprint and route races to work with.

I would bet that virtually every single time -- all 5 figure makers would have every single horse to run that day on the card -- within no more than 2-to-3 points of each other.

True but you are making an awful lot of assumptions here. If everybody is using flawed info then of course they will all come up with a similar flawed number. I guess what I am saying is not that different figure makers will be 30 points off but that there is certainly a margin of error that is associated with every number assigned because things are occuring in a vaccum. So when you start comparing numbers of a single race a year apart I think that a few points could fall within the range of error. Especially in the case of the Derby which is such an outlier race. If horses were running 95 beyers as opposed to 109 I could accept the premise that they make. But 104 versus 106 versus 101 versus 108 all seems to hardly be conclusive