7/7: Belmont (7th-10th); Calder (7th-12th)

[Kasept]

There were two tricky horses to find in Friday's Belmont Double Carryover P6, $25.20 Mary P. Jones in the 5th and $12.80 Special Skills in the 6th. I tabbed both as Best Value runners but only used the 2nd choice former on the ticket. Special Skills, from ever dangerous Alan Goldberg, was a first time starter and I leaned on the 2 in the race that had already run. Got back the investment on the conso anyway and it was a fun afternoon. Hope everyone did well. Chance that New York cancels due to the heat. Here's a look at the BEL P4 and Summit of Speed at Calder before the wife and I head to Quebec for a few days..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Some tough decisions to make regarding the many stretchout runners that are signed on here. You have to figure at least one if them is going to take to the added distance..

Most Likely: #2 Adirondack Dancer 5-1 WON ($7.30)
Best Value: #7 Gossip Column 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Carbon County 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Wild Exploit 4-1 5th


8th: 10th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Agave Kiss is the least-known undefeated horse in the world. She's not Frankel, but she's pretty darn nice. You get the feeling this will be a real test for her breaking from inside and with virtually all but Sea Island looking like pace pressure. Because of that scenario, it is Sea Island that offers value as the likely upsetter should the 6-for-6 Lion Heart filly faulter. Worth at least back-up P3/P4 plays as insurance..

Most Likely: #1 Agave Kiss 2-5 5th
Best Value: #6 Sea Island 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Gypsy Robin 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Jamaican Smoke 6-1 2nd


9th: 126th Suburban H. (G2), 3+, 9f (DD)

Outstanding cast for this historic race and it sure feels like there will be an honest if not spirited pace on with Trickmeister leading the parade. Of course when you get that scenario, it's often a recipe for riders looking at each other out of the gate with no one moving. To Honor and Serve too short a number to warmly embrace and am inclined to stay the course with Hymm Book whose rally has fallen short in last two. Need to cover several bases to get through this in the multis though and that includes Pletcher-Repole pair and resurgent Buffum..

Best Value: #4 Hymm Book 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Stay Thirsty 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 To Honor and Serve 9-5 4th
Super Add: #3 Buffum 8-1 6th


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #9 Count Catamount 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #7 Galaxy Cat 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Fisherman's Wharf 3-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Tiger Willie 30-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-7-8-9-11
8: 1
9: 1-3-4-6-7
10: 1-7-9

MAIN: 5x1x5x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50)



CALDER RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3)

Most Likely: #6 Uno Caliente 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Determinato 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Freewest 12-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Silver Cloud 10-1 4th


8th: Carry Back (G3), 3yo, 6f (P5, P3)

Most Likely: #3 Trinniberg 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Fort Loudon 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Angelofdistinction 12-1 3rd


9th: Azalea (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #9 Redbud Road 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Defy Gravity 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Say a Novena 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Citizen Advocate 5-2 2nd


10th: Smile Sprint H. (G2), 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #10 Gantry 5-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #1 Cajun Breeze 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Field Commission 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Indiano 6-1 2nd


11th: Princess Rooney (G1), F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Musical Romance 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #7 Boquet Booth 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Nicole H 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Nakano 10-1 3rd


12th: Hollywood Wildcat, F&M-3+, 7.5f-T (

Most Likely: #1 Speak Easy Gal 3-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Callmethesqueeze 8-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Trip for A.J. 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Timezone 6-1 8th


<$75 P5 Play:

8: 3-7
9: 1-3-9
10: 1-5-10
11: 5-7
12: 1-7-9-10

2x3x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-2-3-9
10: 1-5-10
11: 5-7
12: 1-7-9-10

4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

$.50 Pick 4 (2-3/6/10-5-10) Paid $137.25


Good luck!
Steve