7/21: Saratoga ($60k C/O; CCA Oaks)

[Kasept]

Fun opening day at the Spa with a big crowd and the predictably festive atmosphere. Had a few mundane bingos but missed the best scores with Roy Lerman producing a $75 winner in Presumptive and $500-$700 P4's missed when my 3 live nightcap runners ran 4th, 5th and 7th in the nightcap. $60k carryover for meet's first Saturday!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


DRAW-INS FROM AE LIST

4th: 13 Jake's Shake (20-1) Castro/Domino
5th: 16 Wistful Wildcat (20-1) Cohen/Parisella
8th: 14 Camp Topridge (20-1) Maragh/Brown
11th: 14 Face the Future (10-1) Rosario/Matz


1st: Willard Straight, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Doesn't feel like a place where you need to get imaginative with the top 4 ML choices simply owning an edge on the other half of the field..

Most Likely: #4 Fiddler's Patriot 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #1 Zero Rate Policy 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Perfect Officer 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bridgetown 8-5 3rd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Hot West is out of the remarkable Xtra Heat; Smoke Town a half to Redeemed and by speedy, win-early sire Smoke Glacken; Well Layered a full brother of Baffert's MGSW Drill; Show Some Magic just missed last time behind next out Bashford Manor winner Circle Unbroken..

Most Likely: #3 Hot West 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Smoke Town 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Show Some Magic 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Well Layered 7-2 3rd


3rd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Cinematize 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Wild Grace 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Clear Pasaj 5-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Bella Silver 8-1 7th


4th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Very curious assembly and a likely place for a quixotic result. Any combination of 4 out of the 12 could turn out, so don't be afraid to fire away with your own nutty ideas..

Best Value: #2 Trainingforsuccess 10-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Sam's Buck 7-2 WON ($11.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Mr Algebra 6-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Call Up the Chief 20-1 3rd


5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Nonno's Boy, when right, has races that beat these. But is he right? Worth it at 10-1 to find out..

Best Value: #4 Nonno's Boy 10-1 9th
Next Best: #12 A Boy Named Em 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 How Do I Win 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Mandorla 10-1 12th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-6-7
3: 6-8
4: 2-5-12
5: 4-8-11-12

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: MSW,3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Lea has had time since big fig, just-missed debut and return to it beats these. Note that the pace scenario here is formless and a savvy jock may have opportunity to seize control up front..

Most Likely: #5 Lea 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Sir Sidney 8-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Night Site 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Late SCR

.10 SUPER: Key 5 with 3-4-11 with 1-2-3-4-7-9-11 with 1-2-3-4-7-9-11 (1x3x6x5 = 90 x .10 = $9.00)

$0.10 Superfecta (5-11-9-1) Paid $59.35


7th: NY-ALW/N!X, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 John Joe 5-2 5th
Next Best: #11 Roaring Conquest 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Parachute Coney 10-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Cientifico 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER: 6-11 with 6-11 with 1-2-9-12 with ALL (2x1x4x9 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Reserve Currency 8-5 4th
Best Value: #11 Colonel Bill 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Romantic Channel 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Standing O 8-1 5th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Salty set of borderline stakes horses..

Most Likely: #1 Bellamy Brew 4-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Battle Hardened 12-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Shrewd One 5-2 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Won Kool Aid 6-1 8th


10th: 96th CCA Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Head-scratching edition of this famed event. If this were a California P6 carryover, the big players would hit the 'all' button because even Yara -- as endorsed by Ed DeRosa on ATR Weekend Preview -- doesn't look impossible..

Most Likely: #5 Zo Impressive 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Questing 3-1 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #4 Funny Proposition 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 In Lingerie 5-2 3rd


11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f

Look.. Another Maiden Claimer to end the sequences! Inability to find To Dubai Friday cost the P4..

Most Likely: #6 Diamond d'Oro 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Mayakoba 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Holiday at Betty's 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Our Pink Ribbon 10-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

6: 5
7: 6-11
8: 2-11-13
9: 1-2-6
10: 1-4-5-6
11: 6

1x2x3x3x4x1 = 72 x .50 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-11-13
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 1-4-5-6
11: 1-3-6

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve