7/22: Saratoga ($280k C/O; Sanford)

[Kasept]

Second day of Spa season didn't feel much different from first as it proved hard to get any solid momentum going. Winners like Fiddler's Patriot ($7.90) were moderately priced when they came and Value ideas like Clear Pasaj ($8.80) were hard to enthusiastically bet at lower than anticipated mutuels. Questing went slightly underbet ($9.80) to boost a solid small field tri ($36.50) in the Oaks and Sam's Buck ($11.20) actually was worth gravitating towards when he held steady at 9-2 off the original 7-2 ML.

Superfectas are a weak area of play for me but I suggested and hit a rare one on the obvious single/key merits of Little Al's Lea in the 6th. The $9 punt returned just under $60 when Toner's Candy Feat (24-1) juiced the quartet finishing 3rd. But $15 Spurious Precision (2nd), $27 Basalt (5th), $31 Image of Disco (7th), $16 Adios Nardo (8th) and $29 Cozy App ($29) were winners that weren't anywhere on my radar screen and their success quashed the P4's and P6 C/O tries dooming the day to the tune of several hundred. Hope you did OK. Double carryover of $280k into another tricky sequence Sunday and there is a $133k C/O at Del Mar to consider as well..


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Wedding in Soriano 6-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Vicki's Dancer 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Victory Island 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tapitude 5-1 5th

.10 SUPER: 3-6 with 1-3-4-6-9 with 1-3-4-6-9 with ALL (2x4x3x6 = 144 x .10 = $14.40)


2nd: Duluth, 3yo, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Clement passed VA Derby with Summer Front so you best believe he will not lose here. Gold Megilliah at a big price may be worth a backup P4 or at least a saver bet..

Most Likely: #6 Summer Front 8-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #5 Gold Megillah 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Spring to the Sky 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Star Channel 8-1 4th


3rd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Interesting set of $20k turf sprinters with either Ward entry potent and Little Nick on the drop the pricipals. Driven by Solar returns to lawn dashing after a claim by MTH head Dennis Drazin; Scary at a square number in the hands of Jason Servis who is 42% off the tag. Silver Timber hasn't won in more than a year but continues to seek a level and likes this strip..

Most Likely: #1a New Believer 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Little Nick 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Driven by Solar 6-1 WON ($8.10)
Exotics Use: #7 Silver Timber 5-2 3rd


4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 My Golden Opinion 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 He's So Chic 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Hardshell 5-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Larry's Vision 5-1 7th


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$280k P6 C/O starts here..

Hope to get away with just the top pair in first leg of P6 sequence that gets tougher as it goes..

Most Likely: #5 Rangey 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Current Design 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Br. Alexander 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Master of Markets 12-1 5th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 5-6
3: 1-5-7-8
4: 1-5-6-8
5: 5-9-11

2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: MSW, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Palace 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Smokem's Charm 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Readtheprospectus 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Commanding Officer 10-1 11th


7th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

I love 'Uncle Joe' Lostritto and assistant Heliodoro Gustines (Forego's regular jock), but it's tough to ignore the trainer switch to Serpe on #7 Hey Little Girl. Improvement on recent efforts gets it done here. Clever Spirit keeps improving for Ubilo and at 12-1 is highly employable..

Most Likely: #7 Hey Little Girl 6-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Clever Spirit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Madame Johar 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Royal Suspicion 10-1 6th


8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Brutally tough group. I'd use 8 of the 12 if it could be managed affordably somehow..

Best Value: #4 Stray Bullet 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Mah Jong Madnes 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Reach for a Peach 4-1 WON ($6.90)
Super Add: #10 Schillerette 12-1 2nd


9th: 98th Sanford (G2), 2yo, 6f (DD)

Like the Schuylerville Friday, a well-matched group of youngsters..

Most Likely: #3 Bern Identity 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Special Jo 5-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Rose Junction 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 John Gordon 12-1 5th


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Tough end to skeins with the 3 ML faves parked wide (9-11-12) for trips on the inner. All assigned savvy pilots, but race seems kind of ripe for a skunk at the social..

Most Likely: #9 Gold Love 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Court of Dreams 8-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Wet One 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #14 High On Kitten 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Sheerflakesofgold 10-1 2nd


<$250 P6 Play:

5: 5-11
6: 3-10
7: 7
8: 4-5-8
9: 3-5-6
10: 7-9-12

2x2x1x3x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7-9
8: 2-4-5-8-10
9: 3-5-6
10: 4-7-9-12-14

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve