8/2: Saratoga (Day 12; Birdstone)

[Kasept]

Double carry pool approached $1.3MM Wednesday and sequence proved as tricky as advertised with only two easy to use winners coming through in 2yo Corail and veteran Saginaw. Unbridled Command & Beautiful But Blue ($15.00 each), $19.40 Giant Sleep and $28.00 Sinorce were enough to clear out all plays but two that brought back a deserving $470k each. The lucrative 5 of 6 return of $2,180 also proved out how the demands of the sextet. The overall tone of the outcomes continues to vex the punting community in general, but I'll continue to beat the drum that says your winners will come and they'll balance the scales when they do...

11 races today with the hoppers setting the stage with a N2L opener and the G1 Smithwick. Speaking of the jump set, how about Tom Voss and Arch Kingsley Jr. winning races on the flat Wednesday? Voss drew in from the AE's with Pyro City and the City Zip gelding proce4eded to wire the 4th. In the 7th, Kingsley sent out 6yo mare Giant Sleep to a second career start and second win. The clever South Carolina horseman had only broken the Giant's Causeway daughter in January of this year before getting her ready to win at first asking July 6 aty Colonial. She was claimed out of the race by Mike Maker for Ken Ramsey who likely sees her as an ideal broodmare prospect for covers by Kitten's Joy.


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2L, 4+. 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Trippo 6-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Alajmal 5-1 WON ($18.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Mabou 3-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Memorial Maniac 15-1 3rd


2nd: A.P. Smithwick Mem. (G1), 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Naylor-Delozier entry 2-1 4th/7th/8th/9th
Next Best: #2b Divine Fortune 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Country Cousin 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Spy in the Sky 20-1 WON ($52.00)


3rd: CLOM, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Like Wednesday's nightcap, some fire sale droppers show up here. Dan and Shiela -- taken by Juan Carlos Guerrero -- was OK yesterday while Big Creek -- swiped by Randi Persaud -- stunk. May as well take a bit of shot against '11 Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann. (Come to think of it, I wonder if Joe Vann is singlehandedly the reason Churchill left the Hawthorne standard off the Kentucky Derby playdown schedule)..

Most Likely: #1 Dreaming Blue 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Joe Vann 1-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Tap Attack 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Alvito 10-1 3rd


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Slumber 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Kindergarten Kid 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Slow Pace 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Barocci 7-2 3rd


5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1,-IT (P3, DD)

Out of the cleverly named Kristy Beethoven (Kris S.-Ellisa Beethoven), Krissy Kat should like the move to grass.. and the stretchout.. and the drop. Decent reach in tough group..

Best Value: #9 Krissy Kat 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Picture Book 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Irish Wedding 9-2 8th
Super Add: #3 Caution Sign 3-1 WON ($11.80)


6th: Birdstone, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

Pretty quirky little stake here. Pleasant Prince and Gallant Fields are prices 'first off the claim' for savvy barns while Pletcher sends consistant trio of graded stakes runners receiving class relief. 2nd Dutrow runner turns around on short rest, a barn specialty and Butch Reid appears with a steady MD bred 6yo. Tough call all around..

Most Likely: #7 San Pablo 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Next Best: #5 Isn't He Perfect 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Pleasant Prince 15-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

3: 1-6-8
4: 4-6-7-10
5: 2-3-4-9
6: 4-5-7

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Taut set. Be happy this isn't in the P4..

Best Value: #3 Catalan 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Tahitian Warrior 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 R King of the Road 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Super Add: #4 Little Drama 6-1 2nd


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sheerflakesofgold 5-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Forever Vow 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Proud Dame 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Silent Joy 15-1 9th


9th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Potentially explosive event. Will start with consistent Smokin' Alice but fan out to prices thereafter..

Most Likely: #10 Smokin Alice 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Bid a Moon 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Garnet Street 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Royal Sighting 8-1 5th


10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Ooof.. Another well-matched group. Even though speed held like velcro Wednesday, feels like there are too many pace players here for the race not to set up for someone..

Best Value: #4 Miss Ruud 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Inaugurate 3-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #7 Julep Tulip 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 La Billos 15-1 9th


11th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Holy Endeavor 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Sir Leslie 15-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Archer Hill 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Julesco 5-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

This is an exceedingly tough sequence..

8: 1-2-5-7
9: 5-7-10-11
10: 4-7-10
11: 1-4-5

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve