Current electoral polling: Obama still clearly ahead

[Riot]

Elections are won and lost in the electoral college. Obama has certain guaranteed "blue" states, and Romney has certain guaranteed "red" states. Thus, the entire election hinges on the results in 13 "battleground states".

It takes 270 electoral college votes to win. There are 538 available.

In these electoral swing states, Obama clearly, for now, holds a huge lead, 11 states going for Obama and 2 states for Romney.

The current final electoral college vote (based upon todays numbers) is Obama winning with 332 electoral votes, Romney losing with 206.

Romney currently only holds Missouri and North Carolina. Obama has the others.

Details of current polling synopsis:

Battleground snapshot: Post-Ryan baseline

It's been over two weeks since I did one of these, so here's the updated polling composite numbers for the battleground states, per TPM's polltracker.

I wish I would've done one of these last week, so we'd have a clean pre- and post-Paul Ryan trendline. But there wasn't much polling last week, and I generally update only when there are significant changes to the numbers.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of polling this week came from two conservative outfits: Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. Even then, Obama maintains a comfortable lead in the electoral collage tally (332-206).


Red is Romney poll moves, Blue is Obama poll moves based upon current polling. Margin is the margin candidate is ahead, and change is polling numbers change Current owner of states electoral votes = state color in red (Romney) or blue (Obama)

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State : Obama Romney Margin Change from 8/1

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Colorado 48.7 46.8 1.9 0.5

Example: Colorado Obama winning by 1.9 percentage points, up 0.5 since last poll

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Florida 47 45.9 1.1 -2.0

Obama wins Florida by 1.1 percentage points, Romney down 2.0 points since last poll

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Iowa 45.3 45 0.3 -3.4

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Michigan 48.9 43.8 5.1 -1.3

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Missouri 44 46.7 -2.7 4.3

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New Hampshire 50 45.2 4.8 2.1

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New Mexico 49.7 42.7 7.0 0.0

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Nevada 49.7 44.3 5.4 0.0

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North Carolina 46.5 48.3 -1.8 0.2

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Ohio 46.6 44.3 2.3 -3.6

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Pennsylvania 49.2 43.5 5.7 -0.9

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Virginia 47.1 46.7 0.4 -1.3

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Wisconsin 48.8 46.3 2.5 -3.0



Furthermore, like I've noted week after week after week, the numbers to watch are Romney's—he hits 46 percent in just five of these 13 states despite Rasmussen's best efforts. Obama misses that mark in just one—Missouri—a state I want to pull from this list as out-of-play (like I did Arizona), but the narrow 2.7-point deficit certainly argues otherwise.

I'm hoping for an avalanche of polling next week so we can get a solid pre-GOP convention baseline.

KOS http://www.dailykos.com/