11/23: Churchill Downs (8th-12th)

[Kasept]

Made real run at HOL monster carryover Thanksgiving Day and had to settle for a $99 conso when 8th race single A Toast to You could not turn back 'C' player Shadow Runner. Sequence returned a generous $6,935 to winners, a quarter over the $5,444 parlay. Had A Toast to You held on, the skein likely pays around $2,200, so a life-changing score wasn't in the offing on what turned out to be a very straightforward sextet. There were some nice hits within the multi-race set and kudos on that front to ATR pushers Seth Merrow and Steve Davidowitz. Both cited 22-1 nightcap runner-up I'll Run the Show as live and he indeed debuted with aplomb from his Los Alamitos connections dueling to the wire with the 3-2 fave Sacred Ovation. With 2nd choice Warrior James third, the $1 tri return $145. Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday and did well! Clark H. at the Downs, Citation H. at HOL and a $30k C/O at AQU for those ready to dig in on Day 3 of the long racing weekend!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Avenue B 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 The One Thing 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 A. P. Eli 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Chant My Name 7-2 7th


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Tough set with no less than 8 of these cutting back..

Most Likely: #6 Colonial Empress 6-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Refugio 8-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Molly Morgan 7-2 WON ($6.60)*
Exotics Use: #10 Royal Rhiannon 3-1 4th


10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Enough breeding hints on Quiet Man (6-1) to give him a shot stalking from inside..

Most Likely: #2 Quiet Man 6-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Seton Hall 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Exothermnic 5-2 6th*
Super Add: #10 Positive Side 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Ready to Taunt 15-1 5th


11th: 138th Clark H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)

Pool Play a SCR. Fun edition of this and I want some prices with Shackleford, Take Charge Indy and Mission Impazible taking plenty of money and all 3 just OK..

Most Likely: #10 Lunar Victory 6-1 4th*
Best Value: #4 Bourbon Courage 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Cease 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Fast Falcon 15-1 8th


12th: (Super Hi-5)

Kruthen has done the least wrong of these and stands to improve 2nd out and moving to real dirt. Cool Street tries main as well and her dam MGSW Oonagh McCool was quite OK on the main including a win the Louisville BCH this strip..

Most Likely: #12 Kruthen 8-1 7th
Best Value: #8 Cool Street 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Starter 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Night Seeker 3-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Ride the Lightening 7-2 WON ($9.20)*


@$75 P5 Play:

8: 6-7-9-10
9: 3-6-10-11
10: 2-3-8-10-11
11: 10
12: 8-12

4x4x5x1x2 = 160 x .50 = $80


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 3-6-10-11
10: 2-3-8-10-11
11: 10
12: 4-6-8-9-10-12

4x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve