4/13: Keeneland (2nd-12th); Oaklawn (7th-10th)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Jagger M 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #2 Early Success 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Silver Value 2-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 This Ones for Tony 8-1 6th


3rd: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tough start to early P5 with 5 second time starters and host of other candidates including stretchouts and surface movers. Ten Indian (15-1), by good synth sire Speightstown, is half to poly pro Prince Teton who is in mindst of a 5 race win streak having terrorized $5k starters at Turfway this winter. Jet Force (Candy Ride) another 2nd timer and full brother to hard knocking and versatile Clubhouse Ride..

Most Likely: #8 Apex 3-1 11th
Best Value: #3 Ten Indian 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Bellarmine 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Jet Force 20-1 7th


4th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Faves are fine but well drawn Cavalero and Tetradrachm are juicy numbers..

Best Value: #2 Cavalero 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Tetradrachm 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Imagining 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #6 Treasury Devil 7-2 7th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Every horse is different when it comes to adapting to the poly, but watch MSW 3rd race with Apex, Jet Force and Steel Dust Dancer for clues to Red Rifle here. Meanwhile, under radar Adena sire Silent Name gets poly poppers and if Leparoux can work out a trip from the #11 hole, Pyrite Mountain (6-1) can win here. Dallas Stewart had been trying to get Fipke homebred Perfect Title on the lawn in NoLa and KEE main is the next best thing..

Best Value: #11 Pyrite Mountain 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Red Rifle 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Perfect Title 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Eton Blue 5-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-8
3: 3-5-8
4: 2-3-5-6
5: 2-7-10-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/5/5/10) Paid $81.60


6th: 27th Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Short field and a bit of curiousity with all but Bernie the Maestro (won here) and Handsome Mike (4/0-0-1 at TP, HOL, FF) new to synthetic strip. Gantry figures to get lead and perhaps rather easily if Bernie the Maestro doesn't press the issue..

Most Likely: #5 Bernie the Maestro 5-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Handsome Mike 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #1 Gantry 5-2


7th: 17th Shakertown (G3), 4+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Perfect Officer won this last year off similar break..

Most Likely: #8 Perfect Officer 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Next Question 6-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Hogy 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Something Extra 9-2 2nd


<$75 P5 Play:

3: 3-5-8
4: 2-3-5-6
5: 10-11
6: 1-5-6
7: 6-8

3x4x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 5 (5/5/10/6/5) Paid $14.65 (4OF5) x 2 = $29.30


8th: 12th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Groupie Doll's win here last year, as well as that of Informed Decision ('09) and Ventura ('08), will stretch its' G1 status, but this hodge podge edition is more like those of Shotgun Gulch ('11) and Dr. Zic ('10)..

Most Likely: #10 Fantasy of Flight 7-2 8th
Best Value: #8 Drama Drama 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Byrama 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Jamaican Smoke 5-1 3rd


9th: 25th Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

This nice group makes up for the Madison. Daisy Devine broke through in this event a year ago and can certainly defend, but expect she'll get more pressure than she did there when allowed a 25-50-1:15 opening three quarters. Centre Court figures to get ideal pounce position..

Most Likely: #1 Centre Court 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #8 Daisy Devine 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Abaco 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Samitar 7-2 3rd


10th: 89th Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Utterly inscrutable gathering where no combination of superfecta players would be questioned. Of the favorites, feels like McPeek and Java's War is the most embraceable and after that it's a free for all. I'll use Tesseron (ridiculous 50-1), Footbridge (20-1), Undrafted (10-1) and Dynamic Sky (10-1) with him..

Most Likely: #4 Java's War 4-1 WON ($11.20)
Best Value: #9 Tesseron 50-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Dynamic Sky 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Undrafted 10-1 13th
Super Add: #10 Footbridge 20-1 14th


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 6-8
8: 1-3-6-8-10
9: 1-6-7-8
10: 1-3-4-9-10

2x5x4x5 = 200 x .50 = $100


11th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Not sure what to do with 10-1 Mezzano who tries the synthetic and gets Rosario..

Most Likely: #1 Dubious Miss 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Street Serenade 15-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Workin for Hops 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Mezzano 10-1 WON ($6.20)

.10 SUPER: Key 1 in 1st/2nd with 2-5-6-7-9 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)


12th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Rafaelini 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Katouni 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Abbey Street 9-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Mizz Krizten 12-1 8th


<$75 P5 Play:

8: 1-3-6-8-10
9: 1-8
10: 1-3-4-9-10
11: 1-5
12: 1

5x2x5x2x1 = 100 x .50 = $50


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-6-7-8
10: 1-4-9
11: 1-2-5-9
12: 1-3-6

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



OAKLAWN PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: 16th Northern Spur, 3yo, 1m (P4)

Have tried fruitlessly to nail P4 at OP the last three days and have final shot here..

Most Likely: #6 Looking Cool 5-2: Nafzger considered Derby before opting.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 Get Happy Mister 6-1: Colorado bred (!) has chance to wire.. WON ($16.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Bemata 8-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Red Wings 8-1 3rd


8th: Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3)

Most Likely: #9 Fort Larned 7-5: Classic hero lucky to avoid injury at GP.. 5th
Next Best: #5 Alternation 9-2: Wide and too bad to believe in Razorback.. 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Cyber Secret 5-1: Tremendous winter for him, Whiting.. WON ($15.00)
Super Add: #4 Atigun 9-2: Consistent hard-hitter gets blinks, Bejarano.. 7th


9th: 40th Count Fleet (G3), 3+, 6f (P4)

Good edition of this with lots of pressers but no 'speed of the speed'..

Most Likely: #4 Laurie's Rocket 7-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Justin Phillip 7-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #8 Outta Tune 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Flashpoint 7-2 6th


10th: 77th Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3)

To me, 2nd choice Oxbow (5-2) the clear horse to beat, so there can be value out there if you stand against 1st/3rd ML choices War Academy (2-1) or Overanalyze (4-1)..

Most Likely: #10 Oxbow 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Falling Sky 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Overanalyze 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Den's Legacy 6-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-6
8: 9
9: 1-3-4-5-8
10: 2-4-5-8-9-10

5x1x5x6 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve