How Derby winners have performed in Preakness since '89

[Calzone Lord]

Horses who won the Derby positioned on the lead throughout to less than 5 lengths back:


* War Emblem (wire-to-wire) Won the Preakness next out and paid $7.60

* Go For Gin (head back of leader) 2nd by three-quarters of a length at 5/2 in Preakness next out.

* Funny Cide (2 lengths) Won the Preakness by 10 lengths and paid $5.80

* Smarty Jones (2.5 lengths) Won the Preakness by 11 lengths and paid $3.40

* Thunder Gulch (3.25 lengths) 3rd by three-quarter of a length at 7/2 odds. Subsequent Belmont and Travers winner.

* Charismatic (3.75 lengths) 1st by 1.5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $18.80 to win.

* Big Brown (4 lengths) 1st by 5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $2.40

* Barbaro (4 lengths) DNF in Preakness. Broke down.

* Silver Charm (4.25 lengths) 1st by a head in Preakness. Paid $8.20 to win.


Total next-out record. 9 starters - 6 winners - 1 second - 1 third. Of the three beaten -- two were beaten by less than a length and Barbaro broke down. Avg win mutual is $7.70.



Derby winners that closed between 5 lengths to 10 lengths of ground:


* Animal Kingdom (6.25 lengths) close second at 2/1 in Preakness.

* Lil E Tee (6.25 lengths) 5th at 4/1 in Preakness.

* Sunday Silence (6.50 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $6.20

* I'll Have Another (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $8.40

* Real Quiet (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $7.00

* Super Saver (8 lengths) 8th in Preakness at 9/5 odds


Total Next out record: 3-for-6 (50% wins) with 1 second place finish. Avg win price of $7.30



Derby winners who rallied from more than 10 lengths back:


* Strike The Gold (10.25 lengths) 6th at 9/5 odds in Preakness.

* Sea Hero (10.75 lengths) 5th by 8 lengths at 4/1 in Preakness

* Fusaichi Pegasus (12.5 lengths) 2nd by 4 lengths at 1/5 odds.

* Unbridled (13.25 lengths) 2nd by 2.5 lengths in the Preakness.

* Monarchos (16 lengths) 6th by 7.5 lengths at 2/1 odds in Preakness

* Giacomo (16.25 lengths) 3rd by 9.75 lengths at 6/1 odds in Preakness

* Grindstone (16.75 lengths) Never raced again

* Street Sense (19.5 lengths) 2nd by a head at 6/5 odds.

* Mine That Bird (21 lengths) 2nd by a length at 6/1 odds.


None of the nine succeeded in the Preakness. They compiled a next out record of 8-0-4-1 with four beaten favorites.

Removing Barbaro and Grindstone from consideration, the stats look like this:

Less than 5 lengths back: 8-6-1-1 (75% wins, 100% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.70

5 to 10 lengths back: 6-3-1-0 (50% wins, 66.66% ITM) Avg win mutual $7.30

More than 10 lengths back: 8-0-4-1 (0% wins, 62.50% ITM)