5/18: Hi Ho Pimlico! (138th Preakness Day)

[Kasept]

Black-Eyed Susan Day turned out a lot like we discussed with Rick Hammerle on ATR as a nearly unrelenting parade of low prices prevailed. There was no shortage of exciting finishes, but there was a dearth of big mutuels other than the explosive 5th race allowance where eye-crossing $54 Righteous Place stayed on. After that, the series of stakes winners all made sense.

On to Preakness Day with the sobbering reminder that the obvious seem to largely demand respect at Old Hilltop no matter how original you want to make your thinking. Last year, only Skyring ($19.60 in the Murphy) paid a real price, while in 2011 Super Espresso ($24.20 in the DuPont) and Chinglish (Also $19.60 in the Murphy) charged the tote. In 2010, Taqarub ($28.60 in MD Sprint) and Strike a Deal ($30.20) were chalkbusters while Social Queen ($20.20 in the Gallorette) and Everyday Heroes ($16.40 in the last Hirsch Jacobs) helped boost bankrolls the year Rachel won the feature.

Remember that .50 triples and P3's are available here which can help you spread or press very effectively depending on your approach. Hope everyone did well Friday and that Preakness Day is safe for the horses and riders and profitable for you!


PIMLICO RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Benny Or Local 7-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Wild Louis 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Hakama 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Aussi Austin 3-1 WON ($5.40)


2nd: Deputed Testimony S-H'cap, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Hello Lover (7-5) a real horse for Butch Reid but is returning for 7yo debut here off a 4+ month break. Isn't going to have a big pace to close in to either. Likely winner still, but feels a little vulnerable. Add #3 Love Talk to your Superfecta plays..

Most Likely: #9 Hello Lover 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 No Brakes 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Arctic Raven 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Who Dat Boy 7-2 3rd


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Note that PIM has a thick, lush turf course and those that haven't tried grass or are less than fit can struggle over it and/or tire. I bring it up because Brooklyn Cowboy tries lawn first time. His dam No Better Time had sibling (MD-bred stalwart Gala Spinaway) that was quite OK on weeds..

Best Value: #12 Hesagoldmine 15-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Brooklyn Cowboy 7-2 14th
Exotics Use: #7 Relentless Move 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #16 Gottalovethedrake 12-1 2nd


4th: Rollicking, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Sweet Emma Rose 7-5 4th
Next Best: #7 Take Time to Pray 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Silvertonguedtommy 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Debt Ceiling 8-1 WON ($12.20)


5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Joy 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #6 Monster Sleeping 12-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Nokaze 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #14 Marataya's Tune 9-2 3rd


6th: 4th Chick Lang, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Zee Bros cuts back to three quarters from 1m Derby Trial, but note best run came at seven eighths. Is he a 'tweener'? This has chaos written all over it..

Best Value: #7 City of Westin 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Zee Bros 2-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Undrafted 3-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Bobcat Jim 6-1 2nd


7th: 48th James Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Fun betting affair and a source of plus mutuels the last 2 years as cited above. Notacatbutallama doesn't scare. Wry Me (20-1) is a full to Notassharpasyouthink who was quite OK on the grass..

Most Likely: #10 Redwood Kitten 5-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Wry Me 20-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Shining Copper 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Heat Press 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Notacatbutallama 9-5 3rd


8th: Allaire DuPont Distaff (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

P5 is a mandatory payout for Preakness Day..

Most Likely: #7 Brushed by a Star 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Summer Applause 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #4 Daydreamin Gracie 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Sea Island 6-1 2nd


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 6-7-9
6: 2-3-7-9
7: 1-2-3-4-6-10
8: 6-7

3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/2/10/1,2,6) Paid $116.70


9th: 62nd Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Samitar 5-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Appealing Cat 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Pianist 4-1 WON ($15.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Hard Not to Like 10-1 2nd


10th: 27th Maryland Sprint H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

This will be a war with waves of speed, stalkers and closers..

Most Likely: #4 Hardened Wildcat 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Laurie's Rocket 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Immortal Eyes 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Action Andy 6-1 8th


11th: 112th Dixie (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Nice edition of this..

Best Value: #4 Imagining 5-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Optimizer 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Swift Warrior 4-1 8th
Super Add: #12 Two Months Rent 15-1 5th


12th: 138th Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super Hi-5)

Hard to believe one would feel more nervous about this spot than the chaotic potential offered in the Derby, but that's the way it's been for me this week looking forward to Orb's follow up to Kentucky. Phipps-Janney colt continues to improve and wins this unless something unforeseen occurs or someone utterly freaks. The 2 horses here about whom we don't have full disclosure are Govenor Charlie and Departing, so they offer the stranger danger and upside. Mylute is one of the Derby also-rans that looks like he can still advance..

Most Likely: #1 Orb 1-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Govenor Charlie 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Departing 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Mylute 5-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Itsmyluckyday 10-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-4-10
10: 1-4-5-8
11: 1-2-4-7-9-12
12: 1

4x4x6x1 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$100 P5 Play:

8: 6-7
9: 3-4-10
10: 1-4-5-8
11: 1-2-4-5-7-9-12-13
12: 1

2x3x4x8x1 = 192 x .50 = $96


13th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #1 Bluegrass Springs 10-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Crown Polis 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Forest Jingles 15-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #12 Dinos Romance 8-1 9th


Good luck!
Steve