Analyzing The Preakness

[Calzone Lord]

The pace in the Preakness was a +4. Which means it was a pace that you would describe with words like: "fair" "even" "average"

Extreme paced races range from +20 or more (Insanely fast) to -12 or slower (very slow)

The Kentucky Derby (+30) would be an example of the former, and Friday's Pimlico Special (-15) would be an example of the latter.

When the pace is +4, it becomes an irrelevant factor in the analysis of a replay. And, as it turned out, it was an irrelevant factor, the winner did it from on the lead. The 2nd place finisher was in Mid-pack. The 3rd place finisher closed from dead last and was only beaten about 2 lengths.

The decisive moment for Oxbow was when Kevin Krigger avoided a speed duel and allowed him to cross and clear his mount Goldencents. The loose lead was all Oxbow needed.

Itsmyluckyday had a very wide trip on both turns, his sheet figures will look great, but that trip wasn't a big deal. He was second best.

Rosie Naprovnik stayed true to Mylute's running style, and kept him positioned 10.75 lengths back at the first call, and the son of Midnight Lute made his usual spectacular turn move. This horse has always been haunted by his hanging stretch habits. He's a very good underneath horse.

Of the top four, Orb was the only one with a little bit of a trip. Despite some unbelievably ludicrous comparisons (the AP actually printed that he "might be better than Easy Goer and Personal Ensign") Orb has never been much of a figure horse.

In his gold standard performance on a fast track, he won the Florida Derby in a time slower than 3 different Todd Pletcher fillies at the same distance.

Orb has a steady-grinding running style...and Joel Rosario rode him in the Preakness like he was supposed to be the best horse.

With five and a half furlongs still to go, Rosario allowed Orb to split horses and make a little move to get closer to the pace. A longshot sprinter, Titletown Five was under restraint and waiting on Orb, and when Orb came to him, Julian Leperoux pulled the trigger and Orb got outmoved.

Rosario never panicked and went to a big ride, but the early move for position flattened Orb out a little bit...and he "stayed on" to finish 4th.

There was a big debate here after the Kentucky Derby, 'What if Orb had Normandy Invasions trip' ... well, I think the Preakness result did a lot to answer that debate.

Orb may come from off the pace like Easy Goer, but he's no Easy Goer.

If you asked Easy Goer to split horses with 5.5 furlongs out, and a sprinter like Titletown Five is there waiting on him, he'd have not only held level position, but he'd have accelerated past him in dazzling fashion and the early move wouldn't have flattened him out.

Circumstances allowed the chinks in his armor to finally be exposed, but Orb is obviously better than his 4th beaten 9 lengths result yesterday will suggest.

Still, had Rosario been more patient, I'm not sure it would have mattered enough. The result quite possibly could have been just a more competitive 4th place finish.

However, he rode him like he was on a 3/5 favorite. Javier's ride in the Derby was far more questionable, especially consider the +30 pace and Normandy Invasions running style!

Rosario's Preakness ride was like going for the pin instead of playing it safe and laying up. A lot of 3/5 favorites with his running style get away with similar moves everyday, at all class levels, just because they're clearly better than their opposition. That wasn't the case yesterday.