5/25: Churchill Downs (7th-11th); Arlington Park (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Consistent Western Tease's usual effort bests these. There is plenty of pace and pressure though..

Most Likely: #5 Western Tease 5-2 9th
Next Best: #9 High Mystery 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Nickel Pickle 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Gruenewald 5-1 4th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very nice group and dandy wagering affair. Cozzetti makes 4yo debut here and has to be respected if any natural progression from sophomore year is on display. One question is what to do with Live in Joy (12-1) WON ($34.60) who was dangled for $25k at KEE by free-wheeling Ramsey and claimed by capable Lyster? At 20-1, Positive Side from Forster feels attractive 2nd off the break. What about 20-1 Saturday Launch who ran OK at KEE and already has shown a preference for the distinctly different Downs lawn? Some fun to be had here..

Best Value: #8 Positive Side 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dubious Miss 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Cozzetti 5-2 5th
Super Add: #10 Saturday Launch 20-1 8th


9th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

With Preakness won, DW Lukas & Kelley/Calumet seek MDN break of Fire Flight, 3yo Paynter full brother, (& 3/4 Oxbow kin), in this deep set. Faves look imposing though..

Most Likely: #2 Lifes Reward 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #5 Seeking an Empire 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Maserati 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Fire Flight 15-1 8th


10th: 76th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

This is a wildly intriguing group with some potential for huge prices. Think you want to use as many as possible in the multis as virtually all 9 look like they could win with the right trip. How deep is this? 20-1's Al Qasr and Najjaar both have authentic merit in amongst the obvious players and have to think 15-1 Heathcote came from Toronto with E-J Wilson with intent..

Most Likely: #2 Harrods Creek 4-1 8th
Best Value: #8 Al Qasr 20-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Atigun 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Heathcote 15-1 6th


11th: MDN CLM ($10k), 3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Java for Two 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Fleet Decision 12-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Song Ahead 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Righteous Party 5-1 11-DQ'd from WIN
Super Add: #3 Best Five 5-2 4th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 5
8: 2-8-9
9: 2-5
10: 2-4-8-9
11: 8-9-10-11

1x3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-8-9
9: 2-5
10: 2-4-6-8-9
11: 3-8-9-10-11

3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 77th Arlington Matron (G3), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Ice Cream Silence 6-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Sisterhood 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Hooh Why 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Ausus 8-1 4th


8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Clout 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Mosquillo 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Double Silver 9-2 11th
Super Add: #4 Fort Defiance 10-1 7th


9th: 91st Hanshin Cup (G3), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Hammers Terror 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Seruni 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Mister Mardi Gras 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Patrioticandproud 15-1 5th


10th: 79th Arlington Classic (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD)

As discussed with Ed DeRosa on ATR Friday, Dorsett gets back to grass and Gefest (By Shakespeare o/o LDK mare) gets on it providing lots of value with the 2 obvious favorites..

Most Likely: #9 Procurement 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Dorsett 20-1 4th-DQ'd from 3rd
Next Best: #8 Admiral Kitten 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gefest 30-1 3rd


11th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Jackpot Hi-5)

Best Value: #9 Mission Storm 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Morioba 3-1 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Jukebox Gem 4-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Givenchi 6-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Abby's Slew 12-1 10th


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-5-8
8: 1
9: 1-5-9
10: 2-4-8-9
11: 1-7-9

4x1x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-5
9: 1-5-9
10: 2-4-8-9
11: 1-7-9-11

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve