6/30: Belmont Park ($74k C/O)

[Kasept]

Upsets in Saturday's Belmont stakes tripped enormous mutuels in the late multis as well as a $74k carryover into Sunday's state bred-laden sequence. Starformer, 5-1 in the morning but ignored at nearly 16-1 at post time, returned to her norm and swiped the New York under Edgar Prado. Paul Pompa's Baby J won the Victory Ride as the longest shot on the board and it represented trainer Pat Reynolds first graded stakes win in 4+ years. I thought Starformer was worth using in the multis figuring her Sheepshead Bay was simply too bad to worry about, but left Baby J off the play as she seemed pretty implausible under most scenarios. However, the 3 favored Pletcher and Dutrow fillies didn't run at all and with Prime Devill ($5.10) and Saints Alive ($19.80) in the late pair, the P4 returned $3,444 for half a buck. Hope everyone did OK. Three NY bred stakes as part of the super-competitive sextet Sunday...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

5-2 fave Native One SCR'd from yesterday's Victory Ride for this. That may not have been such a great idea as she faces tougher today. Obviously can win, but needs new best and that still might not be enough. Cover in multis but try to beat..

Most Likely: #9 Momentary Magic 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 McCarren Park 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Seasoned Warrior 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Native One 5-2 5th


5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

$74k C/O starts here..

Tricky start to sequence. Speed, and potential controlling speed, seems likely to come from Stonely the Lonely. Turnback threat obvious from favored Quiet Power and I think Junior Officer has plenty of appeal stalking from outside..

Most Likely: #1 Quiet Power 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Junior Officer 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Stonely the Lonely 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Groomedforvictory 5-2 WON ($7.10)


6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Even with top choices from strong outfits (8-5 Tulita; 2-1 Brianna Nicole), there are difficult reads aplenty in Leg B of sequence. Six are making surface switches or turf bows, while Vinhdiation Spot SCR and Ishkabibble are in new hands. Only 1-8-9 seem impossible to me..

Most Likely: #5 Brianna Nicole 2-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Tulita 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #2 High Inflation 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 J Rose Gal 15-1 3rd


7th: 7th NYSS-Cupecoy's Joy, 3yo-F, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific group with any number of options including big pricey ones like 8-1 Frosty Bay, 15-1 Stellerite and 30-1 Zekes Surprise. Budget-strainer for P6/P4 plays..

Most Likely: #3 Image of Noon 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Zekes Surprise 30-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Wellspring Legacy 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Frosty Bay 8-1 WON ($18.80)


8th: Shy Groom-NY, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Saratoga Snacks finally back for 4yo debut and working well, but this is a tough return assignment for Gary and Coach Parcells Tale of the Cat colt. Rosario takes over for Ramon and many will want to lean heavily here for P6 single, but host of veteran win types likes Mine Over Matter, Be Bullish and Fiddlers Afleet make it a risky prop. Over and above the elders, B Shanny has done little wrong and Willy Beamin figures to get it back together at some point too..

Most Likely: #5 Saratoga Snacks 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #1 Mine Over Matter 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 B Shanny 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Fiddlers Afleet 6-1 4th


9th: 8th NYSS-Spectacular Bid, 3+, 7f-T (DD)

No relief in sight with another good group in this set..

Best Value: #8 Belief System 8-1 11th
Next Best: #5 West Hills Giant 5-2 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #1e Winter Park ownership entry 10-1 7th/8th
Super Add: #4 Orino 20-1 6th


10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT

Most Likely: #8 Atlantic's Smile 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Uman Candy 6-1 5th
Best Value: #5 All Mine Tonight 10-1 WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Done Smoking 6-1 4th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-6
6: 4-5
7: 1-3-5-8
8: 5
9: 8
10: 5-7-8

3x2x4x1x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-8-9
8: 1-5
9: 1-5-8
10: 5-7-8

5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 4 (8/5,6/5/5) Paid $318.25


Good luck!
Steve