7/22: Saratoga (Day 4-Shipman; $57k C/O)

[Kasept]

It was one of those wacky Saratoga Sundays when bombs fly and as soon as Happy Fella won the 5th, you could assume a P6 carryover. But a late P4 that included $24.40 Strong Impact in the Fiddlers Patriot, $16,40 Wired Bryan in the Sanford and $141.50 Gialiana in the NY-ALW nightcap $17,714 quad pay and $900 4/6 consos in the sextet. $57,553 in the pot to start the Monday P6 pool. Frustrating part of the losses on the day was sensing that Sunday was going to be quirky, reaching for offbeat horses and connecting with none of them! Hope everyone did OK. As usual at Saratoga, you only needed to be right a little bit to make out or at least get out. Rain overnight and t-storms possible but everything on turf as of now..


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Financial Mogul 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Flat Jack 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Big Sugar Soda 4-1 WON ($12.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Pecorino 5-2 2nd


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Cello a dull to Optimizer; Super Sky a half to Princess Aeabella. Dam of Duff One is half sis of Kindergarten Kid, Assateague and He's Had Enough..

Most Likely: #7 Super Sky 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Ready to Act 5-1 WON ($17.60)
Next Best: #4 Whomping Willow 8-5 7th
Exotics Use: #3 The Careless Cat 6-1 5th


3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

SCR of fave Seans Silverdancer changes this markedly..

Most Likely: #4 Full of Intent 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Chance Encounter 4-1 WON ($8.70)
Best Value: #3 Mess in a Dress 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Nuff Said Nuff Said 5-1 5th


4th: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

More wide open than ML indicates as Mongol Boss (9-5) doesn't have to win..

Best Value: #3 Joe Can Gallop 15-1 WON ($40.20)
Next Best: #11 Mongol Boss 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Pacific Theater 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Goesse 6-1 10th


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$57k C/O starts here..

Clement firster Sea Queen a half to Nereid. Paulownia was a $500k weanling (!)..

Best Value: #2 Sea Queen 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #9 Candy Kitty 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Palestrina 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Hillhouse High 7-2 4th (Purse only/Lost shoe pre-race)


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-5-7
3: 3-4-5-8
4: 2-3-4-11
5: 2-8-9

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (5/5/3/2) Paid $1,519.25


6th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Off the Page 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Southern Tier 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Thomas Hill 12-1 WON ($16.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Hebert Hall 9-2 8th


7th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR of Fairy Snow leaves Stop Sign alone up front..

Most Likely: #7 Stop Sign 4-1 WON ($8.50)
Best Value: #9 Dapper Draper 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Mr. William 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Optionality 3-1 3rd


8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Peace Preserver 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Corsage 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fantasy of Flight 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Open Water 7-2 6th


9th: NY-Evan Shipman, 3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Awesome Vision 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Groomed for Victory 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Readbytheline 9-5 3rd


10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #8 Starship Gambler 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #3 Sheerflakesofgold 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Silent Joy 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Sweet Afleet 8-1 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-8-9
6: 6-8-9
7: 7
8: 4-5-6-7
9: 2-5
10: 8

3x3x1x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-7-9
8: 4-5-6-7
9: 3-2-5
10: 3-8

3x4x3x2 = $72 ($36 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve