2/22: Gulfstream Park (1st-12th); Fair Grounds (8th-11th)

[Kasept]

Have enjoyed a delightful week in Florida in advance of today's rather outrageous Gulfstream card. Race after race offers wide open affairs that should be tremendously entertaining and ideally, rewarding. Fair Grounds too has an attractive slate. The 3yo stakes at both venues will move us further along towards Classics Season and let's hope all events are incident free and give all players a fair chance. Hope you enjoyed ATR's FOY Week coverage from Florida. Let's have a great weekend!


GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7.5f-T/0' (P3, DD)

Divine Oath & School On a Hill are big players but are hurt by out-postings. Obliged to reach for prices to start the day..

Most Likely: #9 Rockford 6-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Chart Topper 12-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Divine Oath 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Big Bazinga 20-1 2nd


2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Tuneintobow 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Social Inclusion 6-1 WON ($20.20)
Next Best: #4 Dickens 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Indian Fighter 5-1 7th


3rd: OC/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T/72' (P3, DD)

Wildly deep group..

Most Likely: #11 Sinatra 5-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #1 Kid Lightening 4-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Kingston Jamaica 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Master Achievement 20-1 2nd


4th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Normandy Invasion 7-5 WON ($2.40)
Next Best: #3 Touchofstarquality 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Risk Factor 5-1 6th


5th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Global Strike 5-2 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #8 Strong Stipulation 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 I'mbetterthangood 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Blarp 4-1 7th


<$65 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 1,11 with 1 with 2 - $2.00 $0.50 Pick 4 (1-11-1-2/7) $123.80

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 1,11 with 1 with 2 $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 8,10 with 1 with 2 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 1,11 with 3,4,6 with 2 - $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 1,11 with 1 with 1,8 - $4.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 8,10 with 1 with 2 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 1,11 with 3,4,6 with 2 - $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 4,7 with 1,11 with 1 with 1,8 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 8,10 with 3,4,6 with 2 - $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 8,10 with 1 with 1,8 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 1,11 with 3,4,6 with 1,8 - $12.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 5 with 1,11 with 1 with 2 - $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,9,12 with 1 with 2 - $8.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 1,8 with 1,11 with 1 with 3 - $2.00

Total: $61.00


6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Outlandish ALW group with many attendees that were equally suited for Fountain of Youth..

Most Likely: #8 Tonalist 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Constitution 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Matterhorn 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Wicked Strong 8-1 4th


7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T/72' (Jackpot Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Crazy start to the P6 with almost the entire field having a claim to the pay slots. Demand value..

Best Value: #4 Favor Factor 15-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Calm Pacific 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Hey Leroy 20-1 2nd
Super Add: #13 Mills 8-1 7th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T/0' (P5, P3, DD)

Another thoroughly impossible group with 6-7 top contenders..

Most Likely: #9 Loves Last Chance 4-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Saa Mi 20-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Mill Creek 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Stroll to Victory 6-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Cuppa Joe 12-1 14th


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2
6: 3-6-8-9
7: 2-4-5-13
8: 1-2-6-7-9-10

1x4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


9th: 30th Davona Dale (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 House Rules 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Onlyforyou 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Penwith 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Stopchargingmaria 9-5 5th


10th: 51st Canadian Turf (G3), 4+, 1m-T/72' (P3, DD)

No shortage of pace lick signed on for this mile jaunt and mid-pack/closer types appear the right approach..

Best Value: #12 Abtaal 12-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Bad Debt 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Reload 8-1 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #2 Unbridled Ocean 10-1 4th


11th: 71st Fountain of Youth (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Am sure McGaughey would love to win today with Top Billing, but this is just one of the battles with a much bigger war to come. Post hinders despite style. General a Rod missed Holy Bull with a hiccup, but a return to level of GP Derby win 1/1 takes this. Style suits race flow. Commissioner merits respect. I want to get prices involved and Our Caravan a fit with likely improvement after post-debut regression. Dilger makes few wrong moves. With plenty of people cooing over GP Derby top pair (General a Rod/Wildcat Red), why no love for steady improver East Hall who was 3 lengths behind them? Most experienced horse in field an ideal candidate for bottom of exotics at price high above morning line..

Most Likely: #5 General a Rod 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Top Billing 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Our Caravan 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Commissioner 3-1 6th
Super Add: #13 East Hall 20-1 4th


12th: MCLM/$75k, 3yo, 8.5f-T/0' (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Dolan's Joy 10-1 12th
Next Best: #9 Ghost to Ghost 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Perky Kitten 8-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Street Chief 12-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Ringold 4-1 11th


<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 6,9 with 5,12 with 8,9 - $8.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 6,9 with 5,12 with 8,9 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 2 with 5,12 with 8,9 - $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 6,9 with 1 with 8,9 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 6,9 with 5,12 with 3,5 $8.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 2 with 5,12 with 8,9 - $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 6,9 with 1 with 8,9 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 6,9 with 5,12 with 3,5 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 2 with 1 with 8,9 - $2.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 2 with 5,12 with 3,5 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 6,9 with 1 with 3,5 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 6,9 with 5,12 with 8,9 - $4.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 10 with 5,12 with 8,9 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 6,9 with 10 with 8,9 - $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 3,5 with 6,9 with 5,12 with 2,6,13 - $12.00

Total: $70.00



FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: 46th Bayou H., F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Starstruck 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Awesome Flower 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Eden Prarie 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Class Included 7-2 WON ($7.80)


9th: 34th Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (Black Gold Jackpot P5, P3, DD)

Even without Larry Jones candidates Cassat & Divine Beauty, this is a nice group. Streaming may get away with easy early lead and simply wire. Got Lucky has done little wrong in her 3 starts but unsure who she's mixed it up with and will need to speed it up here. Big fuss being made over jump up effort of Shanon Nicole when rained off turf to dirt last time. Do we really think a guy like Mike Maker didn't know which surface she belonged on from the start of her career and she was a dirt killer all along? Untapable was part of the tough situation in the BC Juvy Filly race and appears a major player in her 3yo bow. Ria Antonia makes her initial 3yo start and hasn't had perfect training schedule thanks to the weather, but gets clever rider switch to Talamo and offers potential value at 9-2..

Most Likely: #2 Streaming 5-2 7th
Next Best: #4 Untapable 7-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #6 Ria Antonia 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Got Lucky 7-2 2nd


10th: 28th Fair Grounds H. (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

MISTER MARDI GRAS & GROUND TRANSPORT BOTH RUN IN THE MINESHAFT (12TH)

Best Value: #7 Hard Aces 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Daddy Nose Best 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Gentleman's Kitten 9-2 4th
Super Add: #9 Unitarian 5-1 7th


11th: 42nd Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Looks as if half of this field is eligible for laurels. Under-respected Vicar's in Trouble will have to contend with inside speeds Albano, Rise Up and Vigorish which appears to assure at least an honest pace onto the backstretch. Second flight players (Hoppertunity, Gold Hawk, Commanding Curve) will have first run on the leaders while off pace dangers Intense Holiday and Emmett Park come into the picture late. Regarding Emmett Park, trainer Bob Pincins and his wife run a very sharp micro outfit that has a handful of horses in training off and on that win at a stunning rate. This Bob and John gelding is 2 for 2 on Poly and may jump forward in his dirt debut. He is well within range of any of the top contenders and gets oval savvy Jim Graham. Do not leave off your exotic plays as he will be forgotten from the #15 and lost on the board..

Most Likely: #8 Hoppertunity 8-1 4th
Best Value: #15 Emmett Park 20-1 11th
Next Best: #14 Vicar's in Trouble 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Commanding Curve 20-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Intense Holiday 8-1 WON ($12.00)


<$75 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 4,7 with 8 - $2.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,9 with 2 with 4,7 with 8 - $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 4,5,6 with 4,7 with 8 - $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 5,9 with 8 - $2.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 4,7 with 13,14,15 - $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,9 with 4,5,6 with 4,7 with 8 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,9 with 2 with 5,9 with 8 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,9 with 2 with 4,7 with 13,14,15 - $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 4,5,6 with 5,9 with 8 - $6.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 4,5,6 with 4,7 with 13,14,15 - $18.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 5,9 with 13,14,15 - $6.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 3 with 4,7 with 8 - $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 2,6,8 with 8 - $3.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,8 with 2 with 4,7 with 1,2,6,9 - $4.00

Total: $75.00


Good luck!
Steve