5/2: Churchill Downs (Oaks Day)

[Kasept]

As usual, the fortnight in Kentucky has whisked by and another Oaks-Derby Weekend is here. Interestingly, both the Friday and Saturday features focus on heavy favorites that may -- or may not -- prove vulnerable. Oaks choice Untapable appears far more equipped to deal with the adversities of her assignment than California Chrome may be for his. Built around the Oaks and Derby are outstanding supporting stakes and more that should provide excellent opportunities no matter how you care to approach the action. These 2 weeks in Louisville are always among my favorite periods of the racing calendar and I hope everyone has enjoyed ATR coverage. Thanks to the guests and regulars that I hope have everyone feeling well-prepared for the biggest of the wagering challenges in particular. Best of luck this weekend!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

If this is any indication of how hard the action is going to be these 25 races, you better eat your Wheaties. Hyper competitive group that includes return to racing by Brazen Persuasion, the Saratoga opening day Schuylerville winner that subsequently refused to leave the gate in the Spinaway. Working well for 3yo debut and could be miles ahead of where she left off, but she faces elders right off the bat and is a bit of a mystery coming in. Meanwhile, I saw Irish Lute schooling Wednesday at CD and she looked glorious, yet I can't fit in her in the top 4! Appears all but Elitism can win..

Most Likely: #3 Elusive Fate 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 In Haste 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Jamaican Smoke 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Brazen Persuasion 3-1 WON ($5.60)


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Catalano's Call to Action may be favored but I'm not keen on stretchout to route off the maiden sprint win. Using prominently but let's pull for the higher priced gals above her to start the sequence..

Most Likely: #2 Senior Prom 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Richiesredhothoney 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Call to Action 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Lady Margarita 4-1 4th


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Going against favored Elaine Kowaleski (3-1) who isn't any better than several here. Have to acknowledge though that there's not a whole lot of speed involved to inhibit her..

Most Likely: #2 Tiz Windy 4-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #1 Handmade 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Flipcup 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 False Clock 12-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Elaine Kowaleski 3-1 5th


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Mt. Tronador will be half that 20-1 price..

Most Likely: #2 Song to You 4-1 9th
Best Value: #9 Mt. Tronador 20-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Play It Loud 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Piceance 8-1 5th


5th: 29th La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Yes, I'm an affirmed sucker for On Fire Baby but her try v. Close Hatches was excellent and she's got every right to be better yet here third off break. Can pass $1,000,000 mark with win in front of hometown crowd..

Most Likely: #6 On Fire Baby 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #5 Devil's Cave 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Unlimited Budget 2-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

2: A (2-8), B (3), C (4-6)
3: A (1-2), B (3), C (5-7-10-11)
4: A (2-9), B (8-11), C (5)
5: A (6), B (3-4-5), C (1-2)

15 plays: $75


6th: 20th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Race was run on Derby Day last year and recall Berlino de Tiger ($25) upsetting off poor effort in the Shakertown -- a scenario fitting Ancil (10-1) if you think he can win without getting the lead. Sum of the Parts is rock solid and can stalk Stormofthecentury if that's the way the race unfolds. Big John Nichols invoked memory of eye-popping Scatman turf work from 2 years ago and may be 100% right that this assignment will be to his liking. Fun edition as usual..

Most Likely: #8 Sum of the Parts 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Scatman 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Positive Side 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Ancil 10-1 8th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Express Model 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Southern Honey 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Ducasa 6-1 12th
Super Add: #6 Annoy 12-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

4: A (2-9), B (11), C (4-5-7-8)
5: A (5-6), B (3), C (1-2-4)
6: A (8), B (5-6), C (1-3-4-9)
7: A (2-12), B (7), C (4-6-8-9)

15 plays: $75


8th: 59th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Superb lineup for this filly sprint standard which lured TX-bred Oaks consideration Fiftyshadesofgold and 2yo Juvenile Filly Champion She's a Tiger making her seasonal bow. Turnback player Mufajaah gets first Lasix for Danny Peitz and will be a square number. Pletcher-Repole miss Our Amazing Rose is perfect in 2 starts but gets class tested here. She needs to be confronted early, or she'll get brave. Milam was brilliant over the tricky Calder strip in the Pica Slew and a repeat would find her in the winner's circle. Remember that She's a Tiger could make a quantum leap forward in first 3yo start and was as fast last year as most of these are now. Drew ideally..

Most Likely: #10 She's a Tiger 5-2 7th
Best Value: #8 Mufajaah 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Jojo Warrior 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Fiftyshadesofgold 3-1 WON ($6.20)


9th: 29th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Not convinced of how pace unfolds here with enough on/near types signed on but only Resistivity and Istanford seemingly intent on being in front. Chad Brown has an import in Little Journey that may not have to be too special to ace stateside audition..

Best Value: #5 Little Journey 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Candy Kitty 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #6 A Little Bit Sassy 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #7 Istanford 7-2 2nd


10th: 11th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

SCR of Normandy Invasion takes good deal of starch out of this event. Will Take Charge has looked OK enough preparing for this and there appears to be enough pace from Moonshine Mullin, Bradester and Appealling Tale to provide an adequate target for him at this abbreviated 8.5f trip..

Most Likely: #2 Will Take Charge 4-5 6th
Best Value: #7 Golden Ticket 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 My Lute 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Moonshine Mullin 15-1 WON ($15.80)


11th: 140th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-WR-KD P3, KO-KD DBL, DD, Super Hi-5)

#13 hole provided a bit of a leveler for field versus Untapable but the way she has looked daily, her form superiority and even an advantageous pace scenario, keep her as much the horse to beat. This event may not have the meltdown potential the Derby, but the pace will be plenty fast with My Miss Sophia and Fashion Plate sure to tussle early and Sugar Shock, Empress of Midway and Aurelia's Belle in close pursuit. Rosalind, Thank You Marylou and Ria Antonia have trained forwardly at Churchill and offer an array of real value underneath. Unbridled Forever's dam won this event in the biggest Oaks surprise ever and the Stewart trainee should be at her best over this 9f trip. I'll cover My Miss Sophia in the multis but try to squeeze her out within the race. Might not hurt to punch a 'just in case' win cover on the forgotten Pletcher (#12 Got Lucky) who might be a $50 horse when the gates open. We'll all feel like morons should we get a Sylmar sequel..

Most Likely: #13 Untapable 4-5 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #4 Rosalind 8-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Thank You Marylou 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Ria Antonia 10-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Unbridled Forever 12-1 3rd


<$100 P5 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

7: A (2-7-12), B (-), C (4-6-8)
8: A (8-10), B (4-5-7), C (1-6-9)
9: A (5), B (4-6), C (7-10)
10: A (2), B (7), C (3-8-9)
11: A (13), B (-), C (2-4-5-9-11)

12 plays: $73.50


<$50 P4 Play:

With Formulator printing format down, here's the A-B-C's of the sequence..

8: A (8-10), B (4-5-7-9), C (1-6)
9: A (5), B (4-6), C (7-10)
10: A (2), B (7), C (1-3-8-9)
11: A (13), B (2-4-5), C (9-11)

11 plays: $50


<$25 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Play:

KO: 13
WR: 1
KD: 4-14-16-19-20

1x1x5 x $5 = $25


<$75 Oaks-Derby Double Plays:

KO: 13
KD: 4-5-14-16-19-20

1x6 x $5 = $30

KO: 13
KD: 3-6-12-15-17-18

1x5 x $1 = $6

KO: 2-4-5-9-11-12
KD: 4-5-14-16-19-20

6x6 = $36


12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Tricky nightcap. If it's not Wilkes comebacker Taketheodds, it could be any of 6 others..

Most Likely: #8 Taketheodds 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 French Press 12-1 WON ($19.40)
Next Best: #3 Toy Land 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Dream of Bertie 5-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Impetuous Youth 12-1 4th


Good luck!
Steve