Winning the Derby the hard way

[Calzone Lord]

Even though the pace wasn't all that crazy fast, and even though California Chrome enjoyed a very ideal trip, it is fair to say that he was a conclusive winner of the Derby and he did it "the hard way"

Anyone with even a basic understanding of dirt racing knows how important early speed and tactical speed is. Horses who possess those stylistic gifts enjoy a huge advantage over one-dimensional closers and plodding-type of horses.

However, that is simply not the case in the Kentucky Derby. You can find many recent examples of stretch-running types and hapless plodders who ran the races of their lives in the Derby only to immediately revert back to their previous form in subsequent races. E.g., Golden Soul, Ice Box, Giacomo, Impeachment, and Steppenwolfer.

One dimensional closers and plodders simply aren't as disadvantaged in the Derby, as they are in other dirt races. Early speed horses and tactical speed horses simply don't have the same type of advantage they possess in dirt races with smaller fields. This is due to the large field size, all stretch-outs.

California Chrome was never more than 2 lengths back at any point in the Derby. I've judged his Kentucky Derby speed figure very harshly in relation to past Kentucky Derby winners...but it is fair to say that he won the race "the hard way" from a positioning standpoint.

Check out these charts:











In the final chart, note that 7 of the 8 horses in category one would eventually become champion three-year-olds. 4 of the 6 horses in category two would eventually become champion three-year-olds. And just 1 horse of the 9 in the final category, would eventually become the champion three-year-old.

In the case of Orb, not only was he in the final category, but he was also aided by a pace that was one of the most wickedly fast in Derby history. He finished 4th beaten 9 lengths at 3/5 odds in the Preakness and actually even let the three-year-old championship slip away from him.

I will be betting against California Chrome in the Preakness -- but make no mistake, any horse who wins the Kentucky Derby from up-close, absolutely did it the hard way and deserves respect for it. Yes, his time sucked. But he would utterly clobber a one-dimensional closer like Commanding Curve, in a race where his tactical superiority would be properly rewarded.