5/24: Churchill Downs (7th-10th)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Decamp has been zippy on poly and should take to lawn just fine. Sits behind inside pacesetters Saffron and Aqtaar. City Connect (12-1) regularly arrives late on scenes to boost tris and supers for KY HBPA head Rick Hiles & Ellis Park poobha Ron Geary..

Best Value: #7 Decamp 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Saffron Hall 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Aqtaar 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 City Connect 12-1


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Six pack and get the feeling you need to cover them all to some degree to be quad alive into late double. All but Pretty Fancy are separated by 2-3 lengths and even she has to be considered making her first start on dirt. Hurricane Leila another trying main track first time. Elaine Kowaleski appears best poised for improvement, but no one here will surprise..

Most Likely: #4 Elaine Kowaleski 3-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Ireland 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Handmade 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Fancy 6-1 2nd


9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Miszippityslewda looks like she's better on dirt. Can stalk and go or take control if those inside choose to take back..

Best Value: #3 Miszippityslewda 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Elusive Fate 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Tres Belle 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Super Add: #4 Cookie 6-1 7th


10th: 119th Louisville H. (G3), 3+, 12f-T (Super Hi-5)

While a big part of the discussion for this has involved 8yo Forte Dei Marmi (4-1), Attfield's 12-1 Perfect Timber is 2nd/layoff and has 12f Northern Dancer placement as an outlier that will win here. Price is right..

Best Value: #4 Perfect Timber 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 War Dancer 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Tattenham 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Moro Tap 6-1 3rd


<$60 P4 Play:

7: 7 (A), 1-2 (B), 3 (C)
8: 4 (A), 2-5-6 (B), 1-3 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 1 (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-6-7-8 (C)


All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 2,4 - $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 1 with 2,4 - $1.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 - $2.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 2,4 - $12.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 1 with 2,4 - $2.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 1,2 with 4 with 3,5 with 3,5 - $4.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 1 with 2,4 - $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 2,5,6 with 3,5 with 3,5 - $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 1 with 3,5 - $1.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 3 with 4 with 3,5 with 2,4 - $2.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 1,3 with 3,5 with 2,4 - $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 4,6 with 2,4 - $2.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 7 with 4 with 3,5 with 1,6,7,8 - $4.00

Total: $57.00


Good luck!
Steve