9/6: Belmont Park ($26k C/O); Churchill Downs (7th-11th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Arch Avenger has improved 3-4 lengths since moving to grass. Candir another who looks like different horse on lawn, but 7-5 tough to accept. Mott gets Dobra Historia back for 3yo debut and gives him a chance on the turf. By Unbridled's Song out of good Amoss SW sprinter Miss Lodi, Dobra Historia's full brother Lead Singer owns both his career wins on the green..

Best Value: #7 Arch Avenger 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Candir 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Dobra Historia 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Strong Stipulation 10-1 4th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Came in looking to beat 2-1 fave Brendan G but reality is he can sit comfortably behind pacesetters or go on with it if Velasquez chooses..

Most Likely: #7 Brendan G 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Solly's Mischief 6-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #4 Ice Wagon 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Two Seventeen 8-1 6th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Balancing this group's contenders means evaluating the MDN events from which those that have run exit and Lucky Leroy Brown out of the Strong Coffee-Face the Music-Firespike looks like chief beneficiary by that method. Royal Squeeze should improve after tardy start in Designed for War race 8/9 at Spa. Vision Perfect (Donk) and King of New York were steady 2nd in debuts. Shug unveils Janney H/B Command Control (Smart Strike), half to Seal Cove, Norumbega, Quiet Harbor, etc. May jump right in among these solid but unremarkable turf babies. Goldberg (#9 St. Louie, 10-1) is 6/1-2-0 since last fall debuting runners in turf routes. Expect Santulli homebred by Arch has some quality to him..

Most Likely: #4 Vision Perfect 7-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #2 Animal Kracker 15-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Royal Squeeze 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Lucky Leroy Brown 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Command Control 6-1 7th


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

Turf test at the classic distance and only a couple appear to have bona fide credentials for the task and don't think Joe's Blazing Aaron can wire them..

Most Likely: #2 Red Vine 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Shock Leader 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Star Channel 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Artic North 6-1 2nd


9th: 1st Yankee Affair, 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Tricky 12 panel affair that looks like it may have an actual assembly of pace with Red Rifle, Slim Shady and Elnaawi keeping each other honest. If that happens, ralling Reflecting will have every opportunity to get in his run..

SCR NOTE: Legendary will run in MD..

Most Likely: #1 Reflecting 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Slim Shadey 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Red Rifle 2-1 WON ($5.40)


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Messy looking group with some career maiden types. Four of these missees take MSW to MCLM drop (2-3-9-10) and it may be as simple as corralling them. Fire Ship, Keep Right and Sweetdreamsaboutme toiling at $40k level, but note each has isolated merit upon inspection. Bad horses win bad races, so be prepared for anything including 6yo mare Mini Muffin 2nd whose pre-Saratoga effort turf sprinting produced the best last race Beyer (62) in this field..

Most Likely: #9 Lil' Zilla 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Sweetdreamsaboutme 15-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Keep Right 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Chrissy Girl 7-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Fire Ship 3-1 WON ($9.60)


<$200 P6 Grid:

5: 6-7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
6: 7 (A), - (B), 2-4-6 (C)
7: 4 (A), 2-3-7 (B), 5-8-9 (C)
8: 2 (A), 6-9 (B), 1-5-7 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2 (B), 3-6 (C)
10: 9 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-2-3-5-6-8-10 (C)

All A Entries

1 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $4.00

A's with One B

2 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $12.00
3 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 with 1 with 9 - $8.00
4 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 with 9 - $4.00
5 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 4,7 - $8.00

A's with Two B's

6 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 6,9 with 1 with 9 - $24.00
7 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 2 with 2 with 9 - $12.00
8 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 2,3,7 with 2 with 1 with 4,7 - $24.00
9 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 with 2 with 9 - $8.00
10 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 6,9 with 1 with 4,7 - $16.00
11 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 2 with 4,7 - $8.00

A's with One C

12 $2.00 pick P6: 5 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $2.00
13 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 2,4,6 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $12.00
14 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 5,8,9 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $12.00
15 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 1,5 with 1 with 9 - $8.00
16 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 3,6 with 9 - $8.00
17 $2.00 pick P6: 6,7 with 7 with 4 with 2 with 1 with 1,2,3,5,6,8,10 - $28.00

Total: $198.00


<$75 P4 Grid:

7: 2-3-4 (A), 5-7-9 (B), 6-8 (C)
8: 2 (A), 4-6-9 (B), 1-5-7 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2-6 (B), 3 (C)
10: 9 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-2-3-5-6-8-10 (C)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $1.50

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $1.50
3 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 4,6,9 with 1 with 9 - $4.50
4 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 2,6 with 9 - $3.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 1 with 3,4,7 - $4.50

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 4,6,9 with 1 with 9 - $4.50
7 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 2 with 2,6 with 9 - $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 5,7,9 with 2 with 1 with 3,4,7 - $4.50
9 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 4,6,9 with 2,6 with 9 - $9.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 4,6,9 with 1 with 3,4,7 - $13.50
11 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 2,6 with 3,4,7 - $9.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6,8 with 2 with 1 with 9 - $1.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 1,5,7 with 1 with 9 - $4.50
14 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 3 with 9 - $1.50
15 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3,4 with 2 with 1 with 1,2,5,6,8,10 - $9.00

Total: $74.50



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Power Nap 5-1
Next Best: #1 Sourcesandmethods 5-2
Best Value: #8 Tanner's Popsicle 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Reed's Bridge 12-1


8th: 31st Locust Grove, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Don't Tell Sophia 5-2
Next Best: #7 Molly Morgan 5-2
Best Value: #5 Ria Antonia 8-1
Exotics Use: #3 On Fire Baby 2-1


9th: 33rd Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Hashtag Bourbon 4-1
Best Value: #7 Danny Boy 6-1
Next Best: #2 Mr. Z 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Cleveland Sound 6-1


10th: 46th Pocahontas (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Pangburn 9-2
Best Value: #6 Frolic to the Wire 10-1
Next Best: #1 Loom 6-1
Exotics Use: #8 Take Charge Brandi 7-2


11th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Sky Hero 7-2
Next Best: #4 Risetotheoccasion 4-1
Best Value: #1 Sturdy Allen 6-1
Exotics Use: #3 Divine Storm 4-1


P5 Grid:

7: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-8-9 (C)
8: 6 (A), 7 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-6-8 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-7-8 (C)
11: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 3-6 (C)


P4 Grid:

8: 6-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 2 (C)
9: 1 (A), 2-7-6 (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 5 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-7-8 (C)
11: 4-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 3-6 (C)


Good luck!
Steve