Belmont Sunday Sept. 14

[Kitan]

Been very busy lately, but began to take a look at the card via the late P4 and then P6 because of two playbacks from my stable mail: Throckmorton and Gear Jammer. Not overly convinced by either but it’s an intriguing sequence nonetheless. Can see four chalk or four bombs. I know which direction I prefer.

Race 5:
Tough to find anything to be confident about in the first leg of the P6…
#9 Tiz Yankee was extremely unlucky to lose last time and I’m not too concerned about the jump in class. Bug weight will help, but the jock is yet to win a race on the turf...
#12 Wind of Bosphorus: Likely fav has a lot going against him, but it’s quite possible that Bruce will have him back to his best with the freshening.

Race 6:
#4 Nubin Ridge: Back sprinting on the dirt after two failed attempts with turf routes against tougher. FG form is better than appears and he could be ready to pull the big upset.
#5 Street Shark: Got a perfect trip when crushing them on the turf. Prior dirt form is good enough but may be overbet.
#6 Metaurus: Hasn’t won in 26.5 months and is 2 for 16 in the ex at BEL. However, he pops up with a good performance every now and then and I feel that he’s had some excuses in his recent runs. Worth throwing in to juice up to exotics.
Very skeptical on the numerous droppers…

Race 7:
#9 Kato: The “other” trip horse may be the forgotten one. Three solid works and with the way Solis has been riding take a look at the rider change. Unsure if he’s really meant for the grass but I’ll give him a try.
#8 Throckmorton: The one they’ll all be talking up based on his trip. I don’t disagree with that, but how often do these wise guy types actually come back and win? He can win in hand or be nowhere in sight.
#7 All the Way: Decent debut considering Bush doesn’t crank them first out. Will be fitter for this.
Consider #’s 4, 5, and 6, although IMO they haven’t been keeping great company, in a wide-open start to the sequence.

Race 8:
Not enthralled by much in this so I’ll take a shot with #6 Spinit to Winit. At 20-1 ML she’ll be an overlay based on her dirt form, but she should take to the turf and in fact most likely will improve on it. Note the turf move at the Spa…
#2 My Jopia is SCR...
#5 One Time Only: Really is the one to beat but Serpe isn’t stellar when he runs them first off a trainer switch.
#10 Desert Bliss: Never out of the money in six tries at 7f and can clunk up again to add value.

Race 9:
#9 Princess Mara: With the configuration of the starting gate on the turn it might take a bit out of her to get the front. However, on paper it seems that she’ll get an easy lead and will be tough to run down at a more suitable distance, and you’ll get a good price.
#5 Strike Accord: Her two recent wins have been when she’s gotten a perfect trip, and with this post in a race devoid of much speed there’s no reason for a similar scenario to play out. Also prefers Belmont. Another at a price and would have her on top but I’ve followed Alvarado…
#6 Effie Trinket: The one to beat, but hasn’t been as good this year as she was last year. Needs to step it up, but will be too short of a price for my liking.
#3 Stock Fund: Finally cured her seconditis and has been right there with this bunch in the past.

Race 10:
#8 Mark My Style: Prepped in a sprint two weeks ago to get the hang of things with a race like this surely in mind. Blinkers on and ready to go long.
#9 Ode to the Hunt: Dam hasn’t dropped much, if anything, on turf but this is the first foal to really get a turf influenced sire. SAR-AQU-BEL shipping isn’t ideal…
#4 Brother O’Connell: Underperformed IMO on debut but in fairness that was an awkwardly run race where the first two came from the back. Should improve second time out and needs to to win this.
#1 Gear Jammer: Was my one to follow based on Castellano sleeping in the gates last time but I don’t fancy his chances at a mile, even if it is essentially an elongated sprint.
#6 Chief Kitten: Debut race run to suit and may have overperformed. Uncharacteristic of Chad to have that small gap in works between his last two and I’ll play against.

$0.60 Pick Four
Race 7: 7, 8, 9
Race 8: 5, 6, 10
Race 9: 3, 5, 6, 9
Race 10: 4, 8, 9
$64.80

Good luck!