9/20: Belmont ($19k C/O): Parx (PA Derby)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Emkanaat 5-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Happy Fella 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Cheyenne Nation 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Empty Headed 9-2 WON ($19.20)


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Love and Marriage 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #3 Truly Mizzed 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Forensic 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lady Lavery 8-1 2nd


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

What a tightly bunched group. As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday, don't think 5-2 Sky Painter is any more likely than another half dozen in here..

Most Likely: #8 Fizzy Pink 5-1 4th
Best Value: #11 Miss Melina SCR
Next Best: #12 Distorted Beauty 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Sky Painter 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Funny Money 15-1 11th


8th: 21st Gallant Bloom (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Artemis Agrotera 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #4 Classic Point 15-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Willet 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Merry Meadow 4-1 4th


9th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (DD)

Will go to 'other' Chad Brown here as 'likely', but this is a mysterious group..

Most Likely: #9 Verger 5-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Street Jersey 10-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
Next Best: #2e Darley entry 3-1 WON/2nd ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #1e Santulli ownership entry 6-1 6th/11th


10th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT

Pedigree players and strong trainer karmas abound here. Candidates clear but possibilities feel wide..

Most Likely: #6 Dubai Sky 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #4 Sanad 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Fire Away 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Grey Wizard 6-1 2nd



PHILADELPHIA PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


12th: Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f

Candy Boy is still progressing and is by far the best price among the win candidates. Ideal key horse in this setting..

Best Value: #2 CANDY BOY 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 California Chrome 1-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Bayern 7-2 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #5 Noble Moon 15-1 4th


Good luck!
Steve