Derby Favorite

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by -BT-

what i keep hearing is that the 3rd choice horse has no shot b/c he's had unbelievably easy races.....but nobody is really providing opinions or chances of those who will be higher odds then him.

it seems like everyone thinks that the derby is AP and Dort.......then everyone else. Personally, i look at this as a 20-horse cavalry charge, and i'm looking for value. I've heard a few mention Frosted as interesting, but nobody is offering a solid opinion for the case of others

-bt-

Do Materiality and Upstart really need a "case" made for them? Upstart in particular has pretty clearly proven himself superior to Carpe Diem.

You've mentioned three horses and I've mentioned two that are simply better than CD at this point. If you're running to bet the 6th most likely (at best) winner in the Derby at 6-1 or 8-1, be my guest.

[asudevil]

Shouldn't a pedigree discussion get folded into this thread?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Shouldn't a pedigree discussion get folded into this thread?

why?
not one of those horses know who their mama is...let alone their daddy.

a famous trainer made mention of that when asked why he took a state bred horse to kentucky...he said the horse can't read his birth certificate and doesn't know where he's from.
the full quote escapes me...might have been charlie wittingham that said it.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Do Materiality and Upstart really need a "case" made for them? Upstart in particular has pretty clearly proven himself superior to Carpe Diem.

You've mentioned three horses and I've mentioned two that are simply better than CD at this point. If you're running to bet the 6th most likely (at best) winner in the Derby at 6-1 or 8-1, be my guest.

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

Agree Carpe Diem's connections and 7 fig price tag will make him a huge underlay. Obviously he can win and being that there will be so much money on so many hopeless horses I guess you will still see him around 6 or 7 to 1 and Upstart 12 to 15/1

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

Materiality can win but he is my first toss of the REAL contenders

[pucknut]

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

[jms62]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

My pick as of now too. Now if they only can teach him to run a straight line down the lane we are golden.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

Do you honestly think there's any way Carpe Diem would have beaten Upstart in the Florida Derby?

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

I don't think CD wants any part of 10f. Sure he's a router but 9f is very different than 10. The extra furlong is very telling in the Derby especially.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Danzig

why?
not one of those horses know who their mama is...let alone their daddy.

a famous trainer made mention of that when asked why he took a state bred horse to kentucky...he said the horse can't read his birth certificate and doesn't know where he's from.
the full quote escapes me...might have been charlie wittingham that said it.

Well it kind of factors into the equation in most years. It's good enough for many of the best race writers to discuss.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by pucknut

Upstart?
better than CD ?
has CD ever looked liked he didnt want go longer?
upstart sure has
in the fountain and i had money on em
he drifted IMHO because he was tired
and his FOY was nothing redeeming

Did you consider that the dynamics had him looking tired, not the distance?

[Alabama Stakes]

it also could be from running faster than the rest of them ?

[Dunbar]

Here are the odds at Bookmaker.com (take these numbers and divide by 100 to get the odds.)

These are the odds you lock in if you bet now. If your horse doesn't start, it's tough luck:

AMERICAN PHAROH +523

CARPE DIEM +645
DORTMUND +425
PROSPECT PARK +2552
UPSTART +2051
MUBTAHHIJ +1015
MATERIALITY +1616
BOLO +4050
INTERNATIONAL STAR +2051
FROSTED +1416
FIRING LINE +2051
FAR RIGHT +4050
EL KABEIR +2051
ITSAKNOCKOUT +6550
WAR STORY +5250
AMIS FLATTER +11250
STANFORD +4250
ANY CONQUEST HORSE +6550
OCHO OCHO OCHO +3554

DANZIG MOON +3050

ONE LUCKY DANE +4050
TENCENDUR +6050

Yeah, some of these horses are 100% not running. Bookmaker in the past has been slow to take down horses that had actually died.

5Dimes also has odds up, but they are mostly inferior to Bookmaker's. Exceptions are Frosted at 18-1 and El Kabeir at 28-1.

--Dunbar

[somerfrost]

For those who care about such things, dosage for some contenders:
Maftool...4-6-16-0-0 2.25 0.54
Upstart...7-5-12-0-0 3.00 0.79
Dortmund...4-5-13-0-0 2.38 0.59
Carpe Diem...4-6-24-0-0 1.83 0.41
American Pharoah...2-3-3-0-0 4.33 0.88
Mubtaahij...1-0-2-0-1 1.00 0.00
Frosted...6-9-14-1-0 2.75 0.67
Materiality...2-2-6-0-0 2.33 0.60
International Star...12-5-11-0-0 4.09 1.04
Firing Line...5-1-6-0-0 3.00 0.92

[somerfrost]

PF's for same (the lower the better), I prefer these to Beyer figs:
Maftool...-50
Upstart...-61
Dortmund...-54
Carpe Diem...-62
American Pharoah...-49
Mubtaahij...-70
Frosted...-63
Materiality...-66
International Star...-51
Firing line...-48

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

For those who care about such things, dosage for some contenders:
Maftool...4-6-16-0-0 2.25 0.54
Upstart...7-5-12-0-0 3.00 0.79
Dortmund...4-5-13-0-0 2.38 0.59
Carpe Diem...4-6-24-0-0 1.83 0.41
American Pharoah...2-3-3-0-0 4.33 0.88
Mubtaahij...1-0-2-0-1 1.00 0.00
Frosted...6-9-14-1-0 2.75 0.67
Materiality...2-2-6-0-0 2.33 0.60
International Star...12-5-11-0-0 4.09 1.04
Firing Line...5-1-6-0-0 3.00 0.92

I use this as a big factor. I mentioned before that you'd have to go back to Count Fleet to find a winner with a remotely similar profile to Mubtaahij. Is it a meaningless stat? Maybe. But with so many other questions about him...and no, it's not that I have an agenda against this horse. It was one of the reasons I didn't like him initially.

[Alabama Stakes]

Is prospect park a dual qualifier?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Is prospect park a dual qualifier?

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=44