Thunder Snow, and the forgotten BEST prep race

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

I have converted T Snows' Timeforms to beyers and found a perplexing thing.
if I convert subtracting 14 points he is not ITM in my analysis, but if I convert subtracting 13 points he is ITM...??sheesh ??

And first time lasix can be a great enhancement or a big let down depending upon how the colt takes to it.

This is a confusing race as a lot of the favs had had a beyer string that is mis-shapened by their goofy flops...IWC is an example..by far the fastest beyer string if you discount his 63 in the FOY, with 2 101 beyers in a row. Same thing with AD he has a bad alloawance number, and classic empire beyers look dismal as a string.

Jesus

[Secretriat34]

I will add this about Classic empire, he ran the 102 in the BCJ, and is capa ble of a plus 100 beyer. his beyer string is progressing toward over 100 again, he seems to be the only one with a progressive string that can top out over 100 as proven in the past. his 84, 97...next?? 105 ?

average beyer of the filed is 92.93 in their last prep..without 6 colts in the equation that have little chance of a win here.

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Jesus

you wouldn't think that adding or subtrcating 1 point would make such a huge difference, but thats how close in speed these colts are to one another.

Since there seems to be no speed here worth mentioning, other non binary methods must be used to find a winner, like last win, win at 9f, wins at Cd, wins at more than 1 track, ITM in graded stakes, etc..

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

you wouldn't think that adding or subtrcating 1 point would make such a huge difference, but thats how close in speed these colts are to one another.

Since there seems to be no speed here worth mentioning, other non binary methods must be used to find a winner, like last win, win at 9f, wins at Cd, wins at more than 1 track, ITM in graded stakes, etc..

I don't think RTH wasn't commenting on how insightful your post was but more on how nonsensical it seemed. I could be wrong though.

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't think RTH wasn't commenting on how insightful your post was but more on how nonsensical it seemed. I could be wrong though.

numbers don't lie..

but you can lie with numbers.

In this case if he chooses not to believe the closeness of the entrants in terms of comparing speed figures...oh well

in 36 hours it won't matter what we type here.

In actuality, because the results were so plus or minus given a 1 point change in converting timeform to beyer, in my final analysis, i subtracted 13 from his last 2, and 14 from his last 3 through 6 to find his average speed. It is this end result i used to compare his speed to the others in a binary format.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

I will add this about Classic empire, he ran the 102 in the BCJ, and is capa ble of a plus 100 beyer. his beyer string is progressing toward over 100 again, he seems to be the only one with a progressive string that can top out over 100 as proven in the past. his 84, 97...next?? 105 ?

average beyer of the filed is 92.93 in their last prep..without 6 colts in the equation that have little chance of a win here.

Always Dreaming has an upward Beyer pattern that may suggest the next race would top 100. Hence has amn upward pattern, also. Thunder Snow is a harder read. Sure, the Timeform figs show three races in a row at the same number, but with the winter layoff in the middle of it, I'm not so sure he isn't

[ElPrado]

Well, so much for Always Dreaming being a headcase. He looked pretty good to me. I had him picked second, but Hence got lost in the shuffle. And my picks are on the Call to Post board.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

When has Always Dreaming been speed crazy? He sat comfortably in the Florida Derby.

Credit where credit is due.
You,Sir 2004........had Always Dreaming figured out perfectly.
Good read.
I......
On the other hand.....
Played Thunder Snow.
Two words...
Oh brother.

[ElPrado]

Hey, kudos for the jock for staying on 10 seconds😂.

[Hoblin]

Hats off to Soumillon and the the outrider for keeping Thunder Snow from running loose on the track. They averted what could have been a potential catastrophe not only for Thunder Snow, but for the entire rest of the field.

[ninetoone]

I had him covered on my tickets...it's an annual ritual that I go through...and one day it will pay off!

[gamblin4ever]

Does anyone know what happened to TS?

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Does anyone know what happened to TS?

I heard he went back to the barn fine. Why he was bucking, not sure, but maybe really really not liking being in the middle of kickbackapalooza had an impact. I can't quite tell how much he actually got, but that's just the prevailing theory out there without talking to the connections. Has anybody seen a horse have quite that reaction to breaking from the gate on a muddy track? I'm used to seeing them just not run well.

[LARHAGE]

It seemed to me that Thunder Snow got pinched back, than seeing all the other horses running off and the loud roar of the crowd just essentially lost his marbles resorting to bucking and pitching a fit, in reality as those of us who show and ride horses know, this happens quite frequently, I know I've been there done that, nothing like bucking and or rearing in the middle of competition to humble you and bring you down to earth. 😆

[taxicab]

Sometimes they don't like the mud hitting their belly,it can send them bucking around and such.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Sometimes they don't like the mud hitting their belly,it can send them bucking around and such.

...or elsewhere in proximity to the belly

[OTM Al]

Here's a couple pictures from right before he starts bucking. Does it look like the saddle slipped? There was some rumor of that but jock said nothing so who knows