March 9 Aqueduct and TB Derby Points Picks go here

[JolyB]

We will be playing Races 4 through 11 on the card at Aqueduct, followed by Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs, also known as the Tampa Bay Derby.

Please have your points picks posted on this thread not later than 1:55 PM Eastern time, the scheduled post time for Race 4 at the Big A.

Race order will be:
Aqueduct Races 4-11, followed by
Tampa Bay Downs Race 11

Good luck to all and thank you to Plenilune for scoring.

[Roamin42]

R4...5-4-2

R5...1-4-5

R6...8-10-11

R7...7-8-1

R8...3-2-1

R9...2-4-1

R10..3-6-5

R11..3-1-12

Tampa Bay Derby
Race 11

6-7-4

[Real Quiet]

R4...1-2-4-3-5
R5...2-6-4-3-8
R6...10-4-6-5-8
R7...10-8-6-7-3
R8...5-7-6-3-4
R9...3-4-2-7-6
R10..8-3-2-5-7
R11..10-12-2-11-1
Tb....4-7-5-6-11

[RUFFIAN]

ALARMINGLY AWFUL @ AQUEDUCT

R4
4---1---2 ~~ 5--3

R5
2---4---6 ~~ 1--3

R6
10---3---4 ~~ 6--8

R7
8---1---7 ~~ 9 10

R8
3---4---5 ~~ 1--7

R9
2---8---4 ~~ 5--7

R10
6---3---7 ~~ 5--4

R11
3---12---10 ~~ 2 7

TAMPA BAY DERBY
7---4---5 ~ ~ 6---10

[cal828]

R4 4-5-2-1-3

R5 1-2-6-4-8

R6 10-4-3-6-8

R7 2-8-10-4-1

R8 5-1-2-3-4

R9 2-4-8-3-6

R10 7-6-4-8-5

R11 12-10-3-1-9

Tampa Bay

R11 7-10-5-6-2

[ElPrado]

AQU

4) 4 3 2 1 6

5) 3 2 6 8 4

6) 9 6 3 10 4

7) 7 8 2 1 9

8) 1 4 5 3 2

9) 2 5 7 3 4

10) 3 6 4 1 2

11) 12 11 3 10 7

Tampa Bay Derby whoever sponsors this year

11 7 5 10 4

🤔 😁 🤗

[DonGuido]

I don't expect too much today . . . been reading too many expert's takes on the races . . . which I tried to ignore???

4: 4-1-2-5-3
5: 2-6-4-1-8
6: 10-4-3-6-8
7: 8-10-1-9-7
8: 4-3-5-1-2
9: 2-8-4-7-5
10: 6-3-7-4-5
11: 10-11-3-12-7

TB 11: 4-7-5-6-11
Ga'luk to all!!!

[JolyB]

R4: 2-1-5-3-4 (but rooting for Langdarma, who is overmatched)
R5: 2-4-6-1-5
R6: 4-3-10-6-8 (bad ML on Votre Coeur)
R7: 8-1-10-7-9
R8: 3-5-4-7-1
R9: 2-4-5-8-1 (how can I not select Sunny Ridge - I live there)
R10: 6-3-5-8-7 (lots of ?? on Instagrand, but may be really good)
R11: 3-10-12-2-7
Tampa: 7-4-6-5-10

Good luck to all, and thank you to Plenilune for scoring.

[cruzan200246]

Aquaduct

R4. 4-2-5-1-3
R5. 2-7-4-1-6
R6. 6-10-8-9-4
R7. 8-3-2-1-5
R8. 7-5-3-6-4
R9. 3-2-4-8-5
R10. 6-8-3-7-1
R11. 12-5-10-2-3-

Tampa Bay (wish Me Well As I Try To Defend My Throne. Thanks)

R11. 11-7-5-1-6

[Plenilune]

R4: 5 2 4 alt: 1 3
R5: 6 4 2 alt: 1 7
R6: 10 4 3 alt: 6 8
R7: 8 9 1 alt: 7 5
R8: 5 3 7 alt: 4 1
R9: 8 2 4 alt: 7 5
R10: 6 3 7 alt: 4 5
R11: 10 3 2 alt: 7 12
TB R11: 5 6 7 alt: 4 10

[DonGuido]

Well I was afraid this would happen, reading to many expert opinions on the races cost me 25 points making changes from my original picks. You get what you deserve! No more baby . . . until next time in my frustration I again question my own process.

[JolyB]

I know what you mean, Don Guido. I allowed the comments of the "talking heads" to talk me off of Vino Rosso by suggesting that he was only one paced and better at distances longer than a mile. Naturally, Red Wine showed much more pace than he did during last year's 3 year old season and had a very impressive win.

Those comments of public handicappers can cut both ways. I didn't listen enough to those who pointed out the abundance of speed in the Gotham and the likelihood that the pace profile set up for a closer. We saw that happen when the leaders were all coming to a stop near the finish and Haikal, the best closer, took advantage of that to mow them down in a visually impressive performance. I did have Oxy Lady on top as an upsetter in the Busher and think she would have been a winner if she hadn't been cut off by Please Flatter Me while making a strong move in deep stretch.

Both students of Roman history and fans of Bill Mott (I happen to be both) were cheering when Tacitus got a perfect ride to win at Tampa Bay. I think the 50 point win assures him of a place in the starting gate on May 4 - could Bill have more than 1 starter this year, both with legitimate chances?

[cal828]

I don't usually watch the talking heads, but did catch Andy Serling and what'shisface, Sebille, I think yesterday when I pulled up the entries on my ADW to see the scratches. They were discussing Vino Rosso. It was a kind of heated discussion and I thought they were going to come to blows for a minute there. My money would have been on Sebille, but you never know, maybe Andy knows Kung Fu. I generally don't pay much attention to the public handicappers except I do look to see Steve B's picks and I do read comments from other derby trailers. I did like Haikal, but did not like Mind Control so I would have lost too in the vertical wagers anyway.

[ElPrado]

I did ok.

I'm in a small fantasy stable group. Mind Control, Tacitus, Admire and Z are all in my imaginary herd.
I've had some interesting horses before... Fu Peg and Animal Kingdom among others.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I know what you mean, Don Guido. I allowed the comments of the "talking heads" to talk me off of Vino Rosso by suggesting that he was only one paced and better at distances longer than a mile. Naturally, Red Wine showed much more pace than he did during last year's 3 year old season and had a very impressive win.

Those comments of public handicappers can cut both ways. I didn't listen enough to those who pointed out the abundance of speed in the Gotham and the likelihood that the pace profile set up for a closer. We saw that happen when the leaders were all coming to a stop near the finish and Haikal, the best closer, took advantage of that to mow them down in a visually impressive performance. I did have Oxy Lady on top as an upsetter in the Busher and think she would have been a winner if she hadn't been cut off by Please Flatter Me while making a strong move in deep stretch.

Both students of Roman history and fans of Bill Mott (I happen to be both) were cheering when Tacitus got a perfect ride to win at Tampa Bay. I think the 50 point win assures him of a place in the starting gate on May 4 - could Bill have more than 1 starter this year, both with legitimate chances?

Yes, I didn't go with Vino Rosso to win in points (talked myself out of that) but did place a $50 WP bet on him for a nice return and had the box tri in race 10 in my first notes but changed because of info I read on multiple racing sites. I just gotta trust my own method(s). I even get really lucky and hit an ROI wager once in awhile. But I think I'll end up #2 to IH this time. He had some very nice wagers yesterday.

It's all fun and games but . . . to me can be frustrating. Good for the brain though, very good.