Saturday, 6/27: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/27/2020

Race 1- 1 st #6 PEACEFUL FEELING 2 nd #9 SKY KITTEN 3 RD #2 SUN SHOWERS

#6 PEACEFUL FEELING faces softer after chasing the pace and weakening when last seen in her first run for
trainer Kent Sweezey. This up and coming barn is 24% with NYRA starters ($3.36 ROI) and this daughter of
War Front figures to enjoy a good trip while forwardly placed early. #9 SKY KITTEN made out poorly at the
post draw given her outside starting spot on this odd configuration. She is in for a tag for the first time and is
looking to improve 2 nd off the layoff while facing drastically weaker competition. If the pace materializes, this
gal will be in line to benefit. #2 SUN SHOWERS is clearly the horse to beat on paper given her speed figures,
cozy inside post and the meet’s top pilot. Her trainer has an abysmal record in NY over the last 5 years (1-21,
$0.52 ROI) and has had a slew of short priced failures during that bad run.

Race 2- 1 st #6 FOOLISH GHOST 2 ND #5 SHAMROCK KID 3 RD #1 O SHEA CAN U SEE

#6 FOOLISH GHOST goes 2 nd off a layoff for trainer Robert Falcone, Jr. and gets an upgrade at pilot to Irad
Ortiz, Jr. this afternoon. All of Irad’s mounts are overbet nowadays, and this one will be too given the massive
pace advantage. If left to his own devices on the front end, he will not stop. #5 SHAMROCK KID is a late
runner who was taken too far back last time out when 4 th at a similar level. He’ll need the pace to heat up in
here but should offer some value at the windows for one of the circuit’s top claiming outfits. #1 O SHEA CAN
U SEE is another deep closer who’ll need some pace help in here and he has back races that would win this
event. He was totally compromised last time out when he rallied for 3 rd as the pace held together in that affair.

Race 3- 1 st #2 KUMAR 2 ND #4 BIG WONDER 3 RD #9 ALBIE

#2 KUMAR is taking an enormous class drop after facing N1X foes last time out against considerably tougher
competition at a distance that’s well beyond what he prefers. This distance should be ideal and he figures to
be able to settle and make one run. Look for him to come down significantly off a silly 3-1 morning line. #4
BIG WONDER is back on short rest after rallying into a white hot pace here in the nightcap a week ago. He
had run a good race a week earlier when narrowly beaten at 51-1 going a mile and today’s distance is his best
trip. #9 ALBIE is eligible for a N2L and faces tougher competition today, but his effort last time out was sneaky
good. He was within range of a white hot pace that collapsed late and now goes 2 nd off the bench for a barn
that is quietly having a good meet.

Race 4- 1 st #5 BANGLE GAL 2 ND #3 TIMELY TRADITION 3 RD #1 FIERCE LADY

#5 BANGLE GAL was ineffective when last seen late last year against the leading female NY bred
Ratajkowski and now cuts back in distance off a layoff for new trainer David Duggan. This barn is underrated
and has a strike rate of 23% with new arrivals off 45+ day breaks (#2.31 ROI). #3 TIMELY TRADITION is
strictly the one to beat as she returns to NY following a handy score in the opener on Arkansas Derby day at
Oaklawn. This gal was close to the inside on a day where the rail was less than ideal and she is in top form for
trainer Ray Handal. The presence of a good bit of speed should help her settle just off the pace and pounce
when ready. #1 FIERCE LADY showed serious potential as a 2YO and now makes a positive trainer change
to Rudy Rodriguez. The inside post and her natural speed should prompt the bug boy to have her moving
early.

Race 5- 1 ST #10 ORB IN THE TOWER 2 ND #7 YOUR AWESOME BOSS 3 RD #5 FLYING FINISH

#10 ORB IN THE TOWER is a firster by Orb, whose progeny win on debut at a 13% clip. This colt is out of a
multiple stake placed dam and is kin to 3 winners. The most notable of those siblings is Escape to the Moon,
who banked 379k in his 34 race career. #7 YOUR AWESOME BOSS spent a considerable amount of time
inside on debut after breaking from the 2 hole and now draws favorably for a barn whose 2 nd timers often
improve. Trainer Mike Pino is 4 for his last 8 with 2 nd timers on dirt in MSW events ($3.50 ROI). #5 FLYING
FINISH was well backed on debut and did some sneaky running after a disastrous break. He’s another who’ll
benefit from having that race behind him and you’ll get some value here.

Race 6- 1 st #4 COUNT DOWN 2 ND #1 PROPENSITY 3 RD #6 IMA PHAROAH

#4 COUNT DOWN received some backing on debut and made a decent middle move while wide behind a
slow pace. He returns off a layoff today for trainer Michael Matz, who is 17% with turfers off 180+ day breaks
($2.21 ROI). The presence of some committed early speed will help this son of More Than Ready. #1
PROPENSITY raced close to a very hot pace last time out before reaching the front in upper stretch. He was
eventually outfinished but improved on the cutback today and should find the seven panels right in his
wheelhouse. His Hall of Fame trainer has had a largely forgettable meet, but this gelding figures to be the rare
value play from Mott’s stable. #6 IMA PHAROAH is by 17% turf debut sire American Pharoah and moves to
turf after showing life on dirt. He has plenty of speed, which is an asset, and progeny of this sire usually
improve on the weeds.



Race 7- 1 st #1 ROYAL CHARLOTTE 2 ND #5 COME DANCING 3 RD #3 CHALON

There’s no doubt #1 ROYAL CHARLOTTE needed her last and she’s now getting an upgrade at pilot second
off the bench. Trainer Chad Brown is 41% with dirt sprinters going 2 nd off of layoffs ($2.13 ROI) and is 3-4
specifically with those runners in graded stakes ($4.75 ROI). The inside post should enable her to stalk and
pounce and the return to a dry track figures to help as well. #5 COME DANCING is the one to beat as she
returns to NY following a poor effort in the Apple Blossom. She chased a white hot pace that day before
understandably tiring late. She is at her best sprinting and loves Belmont, so all signs point to her being a
deserving heavy favorite. #3 CHALON has had brushes with Grade I glory in the past and now returns in a
winnable spot for trainer Arnaud Delacour. This mare was entered in the Harmony Lodge, a race the top pick
exits 22 days ago, but lands here with a bit more preparation. Delacour is 43% with dirt sprinters off 180+ day
breaks ($2.54 ROI) and 4-6 with those types in stakes ($2.80 ROI).

Race 8- 1 st #6 MRS. SIPPY 2 ND #1 CALL ME LOVE 3 RD #7 MEAN MARY

#6 MRS. SIPPY made such a splash in her first two starts in North America that she was just 11-1 in the
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Her win in the Glens Falls was impressive and today’s distance suits her
ideally. There should be enough pace in here to setup her late bid and trainer Graham Motion is 5 for his last
10 with turf routers off 180+ day breaks. #1 CALL ME LOVE was impressive in her stateside debut and now
gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. and 3/16ths of a mile more to work with today. Her best races overseas came when she
was involved early, so expect her to have a forward position in the opening stages today. #7 MEAN MARY
blossomed at Gulfstream over the winter as she followed up a pace-aided score in the La Prevoyante with a
solid victory in the Orchid. Her wire-to-wire scores in both of those spots make her a major pace threat today
with one of the nation’s best front end riders astride.

Race 9- 1 st #6 STAN THE MAN 2 ND #7 PROMISES FULFILLED 3 RD #1 DIAMOND KING

#6 STAN THE MAN was all over a dead rail on Gotham day and now cuts back in distance for the hot barn of
John Terranova. The rider change to Joel Rosario is huge given the expectation of how he’ll run today. If he
gets some pace to run at he can shock this bunch at a good price. #7 PROMISES FULFILLED was last seen
in NY when he wired the John Nerud last year in comfortable fashion. He is the one to catch today and doesn’t
figure to take a great deal of heat early. If somehow allowed to clear today he will be tough to catch. #1
DIAMOND KING was an impressive winner two back in the Stymie and now cuts back to 6.5 panels. He has
ample early speed and can stalk and pounce today as a live mid-range price.

Race 10- 1 st #6 UNI 2 ND #4 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD 3 RD #1 BEAU RECALL

In what shapes up as a tremendous showdown between the Chad Brown-trained #6 UNI and #4
NEWSPAPEROFRECORD, the public should find itself delighted. The former won the Breeders’ Cup Mile last
year and should get some pace to run at thanks to one of her stablemates. Her best races here at Belmont
have been much too good for her rivals. The wildcard in here is whether #4 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD can go
the distance on the front end. She was powerful last time out and the sky’s the limit given her potential from
2018. #1 BEAU RECALL is a late runner who was no factor last time out when mired in traffic trouble late.
She is a threat to split the top two, especially with any help on the front end. Trainer Brad Cox wouldn’t have
bothered with running her here if she wasn’t set for her best.

Race 11- 1 st #3 WINNING FACTOR 2 nd #9 MONTAUK SUMMER 3 RD #8 BRICE

#3 WINNING FACTOR had a nightmare of a trip last time under the bug boy and now gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. He
has had a number of chances and has failed, but this is a good spot for a horse with his style and he’ll be a fair
price given the bulky field. #9 MONTAUK SUMMER is by 11% turf debut stallion Summer Front, who
Christophe Clement trained for most of his career. Clement is 20% with firsters in maiden claimers on the turf
($3.20 ROI) and the presence of Joel Rosario is always a positive. #8 BRICE takes the biggest class drop in
racing as he returns from a layoff for trainer Jonathan Thomas. This barn is another sporting good numbers
with horses like these as Thomas is 22% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks, and that augurs well for this 3 rd
time starter by Flatter.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 140-29-20-16 $168.90