7/24: Nick Tammaro's Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 7/22/2020
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #4 HANDS UP 2ND #5 ASSUME 3RD #8 WISHES AND DREAMS

#4 HANDS UP is the right alternative to #5 ASSUME as the latter will be a pretty heavy favorite. Trainer Phil Bauer, who brings Hands Up in from Kentucky, has quietly had success at Saratoga over the last couple of years, and Churchill Downs invaders have done particularly well on dirt. The aforementioned Assume takes the biggest class drop in racing. For a horse that was competitive against MSW competition it is a particularly huge drop as trainer Todd Pletcher is looking to move this son of Candry Ride. The balance of the field after he and Hands Up offers no win candidates. #8 WISHES AND DREAMS has performed respectably on dirt and changes surfaces making the third start of his form cycle. He was a sharper horse early without blinkers and they’re coming off today.

Race 2- 1st #2 OVERTIME OLIVIA 2ND #1 KINKY SOX 3RD #5 HOT LITTLE HONEY

#2 OVERTIME OLIVIA is the one to catch as she drops in class and changes surfaces for Antonio Arriaga. This gal did all the dirty work two back before missing by a lip and was overmatched last time class-wise. There’s no early speed to keep her honest early in this bunch. #1 KINKY SOX is in very good form for a low percentage barn as she validated an upset N2L win with a solid 2nd place effort at this level last time. The rail draw is a bit of a negative given she’d like to make up ground in here, but her competition is weak and there’s clear speed outside of her to create some separation. #5 HOT LITTLE HONEY was pounded at the windows last time and did no running whatsoever. Trainer Mike Maker is pulling the ‘eject’ button dropping her in for 14k shen she has starter and NY bred conditions and she does have the hottest pilot on the grounds with Irad Ortiz, Jr. having won 5 races on Thursday.

Race 3- 1st #6 VOTING AGREEMENT 2ND #4 HENNI PENNY 3RD #2 PEACEFUL

#6 VOTING AGREEMENT was dull last time out as a beaten 7/5 favorite but now faces drastically weaker competition going the trip over which she broke her maiden last year. Trainer Chad Brown is 6 for his last 14 with turfers going 2ndoff of 180+ day layoffs ($2.89 ROI) and this gal should be wound tighter for this engagement. #4 HENNI PENNY spent a large portion of her last race wide on the course where the rail was the place to be. She goes 3rd off a layoff herself today and has really improved since moving back to turf for David Donk. #2 PEACEFUL had no excuse whatsoever last time out when she set a slow pace on the best part of the turf before being collared late. Whether this barn can win consistently in NY is a question, but there’s no doubt this daughter of Declaration of War is a win candidate based on her best efforts.

Race 4- 1st #8 BLUNT FORCE 2ND #5 MALARKEY 3RD #2 MISS LOYALTY

In a race crying out for a fresh face, #8 BLUNT FORCE is just that. She exits a N3L win in Louisville where she stalked a hot pace, took over and held sway late. This is a perfect spot pace-wise as well given she can stalk, pounce, and turn things around for a trainer that has not had a great deal of success at Saratoga. #5 MALARKEYwas at a disadvantage racing over a surface that was a ‘no passing zone’ last time out. She improved out of her early July effort where she tracked a hot pace before weakening and now goes 3rd off a 90+ day break. This could be the spot where she puts forth her very best. #2 MISS LOYALTY faced considerably better in her last start and couldn’t make an impact late behind a runaway wire-to-wire winner. She is a one-run closer whose style has not been useful on this new dirt surface, but her current form and class make her a must-use in the pick 5.

Race 5- 1ST #9 SAMBORELLA 2ND #8 NO MO’ SPENDING 3RD #3 IRISH CONSTITUTION

In a total guessing game you can take big purchase prices like #9 SAMBORELLA, who was taken for 500k despite being by a sire with no real accomplishments and out of a dam whose productivity is limited. The 2nd generation on the dam side has the stakes caliber Todd Pletcher runners Nonna Mela and Nonna Madeline, but its safe to say this gal made a striking physical impression in the ring. She drew well for a trainer that won 4 races with 2YO firsters at the Spa in 2019. #8 NO MO’ SPENDING debuted against considerably tougher competition and now moves into the NY Bred ranks for trainer Ian Wilkes. She had no speed on debut, which is no surprise, but showed some energy, is training well and figures to benefit from the experience. #3 IRISH CONSTITUTION is by 24% debut sire Constitution and is out of a dam who was a multiple graded stake sinner. She has produced 4 winners, so there’s a lot to like here for a trainer whose horses can be ready on debut.



Race 6- 1st #9 CAP DE CREUS 2ND #6 COILEAN BAWN 3RD #1 ELLE M’A SOURI

While she has had issues getting to the winner’s circle in the past, #9 CAP DE CREUS almost looks like she can’t lose this race. She has faced considerably tougher on the weeds in recent outings, including stakes winners Civil Union, Mean Mary, and Elizabeth Way and she got into traffic trouble last time out. This is the ideal trip for her, these connections are heating up and she is not pace dependent. #6 COILEAN BAWN goes out for the hottest trainer on the grounds as Christophe Clement won 3 on Thursday. This daughter of Pioneerof the Nile won off the bench last time in a field that included subsequent winner In Front. Clement is 20% with turf routers off maiden wins ($3.15 ROI) and this gal has the tactical speed to get the jump on late runners. #1 ELLE M’A SOURI just might excel at today’s 11 furlong trip and has drawn a cozy inside post from which she can save ground. The runners from her maiden win that have come back have not validated the 80 Beyer speed figure, but this gal is clearly moving forward and has upside.

Race 7- 1st #2 TOWERING GAZE 2ND #8 SNICKET 3RD #10 QUANTITATIVEBREEZIN

#2 TOWERING GAZE took the worst of it being on the lead last time out and now figures to relax a bit more early. She showed in her debut the difference between she and #8 SNICKET was negligible and you’ll get much more value on this daughter fo Gio Ponti today. The aforementioned Snicket was interfered with last time and now looks for redemption. She didn’t really take a big step forward off her turf debut and looks like a horse who may have trouble sealing the deal. #10 QUANTITATIVEBREEZIN may have debuted against weaker, but she ran a bang-up race to finish second. Her prolonged wide move came during a time where the inside paths on the inner turf were best. The move into the MSW ranks is a major sign of confidence.

Race 8- 1ST #3 CERRETALTO 2ND #7 FREE ENTERPRISE 3RD #1 MOUNT TRAVER

#3 CERRETALTO feels like the right alternative price-wise to some of the favorites. He really improved at Aqueduct over the fall and winter and ran into a buzz saw in Amundson before getting shelved. The inside portions of the racetrack were best in his last outing and that hurt his cause as well. This barn excels at Saratoga and has shown signs of waking up in the last few days with big nightcap performances. #7 FREE ENTERPRISE had nothing go his way last time out as he was forced to set the pace after breaking inside. He wound up setting a fast pace and burying his early rival before the eventual 1-2 finishers came from last and next to last. He’s now drawn favorably on the outside to stalk and pounce and Chad Brown trainees in general have been wound tighter 2nd off of layoffs. #1 MOUNT TRAVERS is the horse to beat in many ways given his most recent try and the likelihood of a strong pace in this affair. He is a closing type who’ll benefit if things heat up on the front and and he exits a good effort behind some hard knocking veterans at Belmont.

Race 9- 1st #4 OLD CHESTNUT 2ND #8 TURNED ASIDE 3RD #2 JACK AND NOAH

Perhaps the 1-2 finishers from his last are too much for him to handle, but #4 OLD CHESTNUT made the only off the pace move that day and figures to get a nice setup today. This distance may suit him even better, as he’ll have to get his motor going a tad earlier in a race where the pace could be breakneck. #8 TURNED ASIDE goes 2nd off a layoff and stands to improve enough to narrow the gap between he and #2 JACK AND NOAH. This son of American Pharoah was pressed into stalking duties last time out and ran a bang-up race off the bench. He is the horse to beat. Jack and Noah freaked going 6 panels last time out but will now have to deal with pace on his inside. He can be effective stalking early, but you’ll have to take a short price today against a tougher field.

Race 10- 1st #3 BRICCO 2ND #1 AINTITFUNKYNOW 3RD #9 GOLDEN IDOL

#3 BRICCO improved off the bench for H. James Bond and now goes 2nd off a layoff. He retains Luis Saez, who is back after enduring a bout with COVID and this son of Paddy O’Prady should be set for an improved effort here. #1 AINTITFUNKYNOW takes the biggest class drop in racing after showing little against tougher on two occasions at Belmont. He is a late running type who’ll need some pace in front of him, and he figures to offer no value with Irad Ortiz, Jr. astride. #9 GOLDEN IDOL received a pretty ridiculous ride last time out when 5th against similar foes downstate. He now gets a massive upgrade to journeyman Tyler Gaffalione and he should be set for improvement 2nd off the bench as well.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 51-13-6-13 $93.30