8/9: Saratoga (Empire 6 Force); Ellis (Derby/Oaks/Groupie Doll X-C P5)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Empire 6 Force Out starts here; $1.4MM pool with $5MM likely on a VERY treacherous sequence..

Most Likely: #5 Windfall Profit 9-5 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #6 Bastet 5-2 5th
Best Value: #9 Johnnie Merle 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Ms Boombastic 6-1 4th


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Three first out winners ~ Escape Fund-SAR, Palio Flag-KEE, Henrys Deal-LS ~ convene against more experienced types, but note 3yo debut of Secondary Market who displayed tactical ability at 2 and should be much better now with natural development..

Best Value: #5 Secondary Market 6-1 WON ($14.80)
Next Best: #8 Palio Flag 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Timely Tradition 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Escape Fund 10-1 9th


7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Aunt Nadine 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #5 Mo Me Mo My 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Shannon's Girl 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Summer Fortune 3-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 9f-Inner (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 City Man 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Venezuelan Hug 6-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #3 Shamrocket 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Our Country 8-1 7th


9th: Alydar-R, 4+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Endorsed 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Bodexpress 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Backsideofthemoon 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Its All Relevant 6-1 5th


10th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 3+, 6.5f

Most Likely: #9 Pier Forty 4-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Always Funny 6-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Brunate 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Boston Billy 15-1 4th


Empire 6 Grid:

5: 5 (A), 6-9 (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
6: 1-2-5-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 2 (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 2-5-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x1x3x4 = 360 x .20 = $72
All A's: 1x5x2x1x2x4 = 80 x .20 = $16


P5 Grid:

6: 2-5-8 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)
8: 8 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 2 (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 2-8-9 (A), 5-6 (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x1x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
8: 8 (A), 7/SCR (B), 1-3-6 (C)
9: 1-5 (A), 2 (B), 3-4 (C)
10: 2-5-7-8-9 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x1x2x5 = 20 x .50 = $10



ELLIS PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Audubon Oaks, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Hello Beautiful 4-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Casual 5-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Compelling Smile 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Mundaye Call 9-2 WON ($6.40)


9th: Groupie Doll, F&M-3+, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #9 Dos Vinos Paddock SCR
Next Best: #12 Street Band 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Lady Apple 4-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Lady Kate 5-1 WON ($10.00)


10th: Elluis Park Derby, 3yo, 9f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Art Collector 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #5 Necker Island 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Shared Sense 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Dean Martini 10-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #1 Trident Hit 30-1 10th


X-C P5 Grid:

SAR 7: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
ELP 8: 2-5 (A), - (B), 10-11 (C)
SAR 8: 1-3-8 (A), 2-5-6 (B), - (C)
ELP 9: 9/SCR-12 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
ELP 10: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[tywizard]

Looks like you have all the pieces for the cross country Pick 5.

Leg A: Saratoga - Race 7
Leg B: Ellis Park - Race 8 Runhappy Audobon Oaks
Leg C: Saratoga - Race 8
Leg D: Ellis Park - Race 9
Leg E: Ellis Park - Race 10 Runhappy Ellis Park Derby

[Kasept]

SAR SCR

3rd - 4
5th - 7-8
8th - 7
10th - 7

Fast/Firm

[Kasept]

Sickened that I thoroughly botched the Cross Country play ~ which was a P4 with Art Collector. Paid $900 with 7-2, 5-1, 2-1, 4-1 and 4-5 winners. Almost a P3 because you only needed 2 (Aunt Nadine 7-2 & Mo Me Mo My) in the SAR 7th. Not sure why I panicked and spread in the SAR 8th (when 1-3-8 was plenty) which prevented the use of the Oaks C's. Very annoying.