4/14: Aqueduct ($45k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MCLM-$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Belleshazza 4th
Next Best: #2 Masabeeh 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Synonymous WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #3 Candlestick Maker 5th


5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Aside from the P6 and P5 (which starts here), a really fun betting race. Favored #10 Palace Gossip (7-2) can win, but she'll have to withstand plenty of pace pressure. Will use defensively..

Best Value: #3 Flip My Id 10-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Fontanafredda 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Uncle's Gem 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Masterof the Tunes 10-1 5th


6th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Yikes. Murky basket o' coconuts..

Most Likely: #5 Bird Ruler 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Nicholas James 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Alite 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 My Boy Colton 7-2 4th


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

SCR #4 Exotic West who won the Top Flight Sunday.. Not sure why Default Protection (5-2) is 3rd choice here as Feb. effort is as good or better than anything Make Mischief (9-5) or Cafe Society (2-1) shows on their pages..

Most Likely: #1 Default Protection 5-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Make Mischief 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Cafe Society 2-1 DH-2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Chad/Brant entry has Kuramata in field and Flop Shot perched as 1st AE and either/both are most likely here..

Most Likely: #2e Brown/Brant entry 8-5 WON/3rd ($3.50)
Best Value: #8 Buy Land and See 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Highland Chief 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Worth a Shot 6-1 8th


9th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-Outer

Casse AE #14 Sinfully Sweet would be the key if she were to make it in. In moderate looking group, #3 Royal Dancer (12-1) has price appeal with hustling bug Gomez on a Nevin firster that has pedigree to take to turf sprinting..

Best Value: #3 Royal Dancer 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Smokin' Hot Kitty 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Crosstalk 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Valentia Island 8-1 7th


P6 Grid:

4: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 6-9 (B), 10 (C)
6: 5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), 2 (B), 6 (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x2x1x3 = $48
All A's: 1x2x2x1x1x3 = $12
Backups ($66): $24 (C-A-A-A-A-A) + $6 (A-C-A-A-A-A) + $12 (A-A-A-C-A-A) + $24 (A-A-A-A-C-A)


P5 Grid:

5: 3-5 (A), 6-9-10 (B), - (C)
6: 5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x1x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x2x1x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $36 (A-A-A-C-A)


P4 Grid:

6: 3-5-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)
9: 1-3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple ($1 All A's): 4x3x1x3 = $36
.50 Backup: $36 (A-A-C-A)


Good luck!
Steve

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

The 9th race would have been the only race with sandwich opportunity,

It would have been a profitable trifecta, but the Ticket structure would have lossed. Most difficult aspect of building the ticket is correctly slotting the correct numbers,

Very High Probability that the ticket structure would have been,

3,11/1,5,?/all
question Mark on the 3rd horse in the two slot, as I did not handicap the races yesterday,

If Steve does not have a 5th horse to his selections, I insert what I call the Casper Pick. Since didnt cap, no idea who that Casper Horse would have been.
Possible that Casper could have been the 8, in which case then the ticket would have hit, twice!

Just an example, so that I can get criticized again, but I will call out a losing ticket due to wrong ticket structure, as I do not win all the time, and often times have left with ass in hand,. Its gamblling, sometimes it hits sometimes, you miss one on bad ticket structure, incorrect picks or flat dead ass wrong.

The key, is to select the races with highest probability of bombs ducking in,. How I tend to Identify that is through Steve's capping.
If he has two of 4 horses selected with short odds, I move on, as the large payout is really not probable and a waste of money to try.

However, when Steve has selections that have all healthy odds, then I see a large field, then the opportunities arise. I know he is never far off, and when he misses often times its a large price that squeezes him out.

After years of watching and observing his selections,
I took Mannys trifecta formula, Steve's handicapping, and Gordon Jones's, ticket structure through squares, circles and triangles (very similar to ABC).

I found very quickly for this to be a profitable approach. The key is the Casper selection. and then having the ticket structured correctly.

I have done this long enough and consistently enough to know, whether the ticket would have been correct.

The above 9th is that example

If Steve has,

Most Likely- #3
Next best - #6
best value - #9
Exotics - #1

Then I have to go in and find the Last Horse, Often times I just use the best probable price, if I am not with Manuel. The Casper Horse needs to be a price. or its no bet. finding that 5th horse is really important. Unless steve caps 5 usually seen as the Super add. So, most likely ticket structure would have been,
3,9/1,6, ?/all

For shorter bank roll or only targeting the bomb one can save on two tickets, by not utilizing the ALL button in the 3rd slot, this way it is only four tickets, except you will lose possibility of cashing it twice.

So lets say the Casper Horse was the #5,

4 tickets would be,

3,9/all/ 1,5,6
All/3,9/1,5,6
All/1,5,6/3,9
1,5,6/all/3,9

If you box it all the way, obviously you would have two more tickets added
In 3,9/1,5,6/All, and 1,5,6/3,9/all


Everyone have a fantastic Good Friday. As Good will make you better, and your better will become your best! that would equate to Best Bettor.

Good Luck all, may god bless your weekend!

You've said multiple times that all of your winnings are documented. Fifth time I'm asking now....where can people see this documentation?

I know one thing. In discussing your winning Masters pick, you said "Really needed that one." And "Felt good to finally be right."

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

The 9th race would have been the only race with sandwich opportunity,

It would have been a profitable trifecta, but the Ticket structure would have lossed. Most difficult aspect of building the ticket is correctly slotting the correct numbers,

Very High Probability that the ticket structure would have been,

3,11/1,5,?/all
question Mark on the 3rd horse in the two slot, as I did not handicap the races yesterday,

If Steve does not have a 5th horse to his selections, I insert what I call the Casper Pick. Since didnt cap, no idea who that Casper Horse would have been.
Possible that Casper could have been the 8, in which case then the ticket would have hit, twice!

Just an example, so that I can get criticized again, but I will call out a losing ticket due to wrong ticket structure, as I do not win all the time, and often times have left with ass in hand,. Its gamblling, sometimes it hits sometimes, you miss one on bad ticket structure, incorrect picks or flat dead ass wrong.

The key, is to select the races with highest probability of bombs ducking in,. How I tend to Identify that is through Steve's capping.
If he has two of 4 horses selected with short odds, I move on, as the large payout is really not probable and a waste of money to try.

However, when Steve has selections that have all healthy odds, then I see a large field, then the opportunities arise. I know he is never far off, and when he misses often times its a large price that squeezes him out.

After years of watching and observing his selections,
I took Mannys trifecta formula, Steve's handicapping, and Gordon Jones's, ticket structure through squares, circles and triangles (very similar to ABC).

I found very quickly for this to be a profitable approach. The key is the Casper selection. and then having the ticket structured correctly.

I have done this long enough and consistently enough to know, whether the ticket would have been correct.

The above 9th is that example

If Steve has,

Most Likely- #3
Next best - #6
best value - #9
Exotics - #1

Then I have to go in and find the Last Horse, Often times I just use the best probable price, if I am not with Manuel. The Casper Horse needs to be a price. or its no bet. finding that 5th horse is really important. Unless steve caps 5 usually seen as the Super add. So, most likely ticket structure would have been,
3,9/1,6, ?/all

For shorter bank roll or only targeting the bomb one can save on two tickets, by not utilizing the ALL button in the 3rd slot, this way it is only four tickets, except you will lose possibility of cashing it twice.

So lets say the Casper Horse was the #5,

4 tickets would be,

3,9/all/ 1,5,6
All/3,9/1,5,6
All/1,5,6/3,9
1,5,6/all/3,9

If you box it all the way, obviously you would have two more tickets added
In 3,9/1,5,6/All, and 1,5,6/3,9/all


Everyone have a fantastic Good Friday. As Good will make you better, and your better will become your best! that would equate to Best Bettor.

Good Luck all, may god bless your weekend!

Lets say the truth. Using Byks picks you would have had 1,3 in the first leg not 3,11 thus if you by some miracle you added the 8 in second leg you only hit once. You would have bet $216 to win $307 which is terrible odds. Again lets see your picks before the races go off not after. I can hit every tri on a simple $.50 bet after the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm still trying to figure out what "lossed" means.

You have to give this lunatic credit for one thing....he has managed to unite enemies.

[knickslions2]

Also using cuban sandwich on the other races he posted maybe you win races 4, 6 and 8 thus betting $450 to win $78 (loss of $372) but you got skunked on race 5 for a bet of $216. If I include you saying you won race 9 (positive $91) you daily total was a loss of $497. I can't see this betting strategy even coming close to winning in long run.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm still trying to figure out what "lossed" means.

You have to give this lunatic credit for one thing....he has managed to unite enemies.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm still trying to figure out what "lossed" means.

You have to give this lunatic credit for one thing....he has managed to unite enemies.

It's the opposite of winned.

Duh

[blackthroatedwind]

You can't bet like this at a 25% takeout rate and not get crushed in the long run ( if not sooner ). You are giving up so much edge that you will get completely destroyed unless you are getting a huge rebate and have a decent opinion....and even then it's not likely.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can't bet like this at a 25% takeout rate and not get crushed in the long run ( if not sooner ). You are giving up so much edge that you will get completely destroyed unless you are getting a huge rebate and have a decent opinion....and even then it's not likely.

Stop trying to inject logic here please.

He has Manny's formula, Casper horse and Gordon Jones structure. World domination can't be too far off.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You can't bet like this at a 25% takeout rate and not get crushed in the long run ( if not sooner ). You are giving up so much edge that you will get completely destroyed unless you are getting a huge rebate and have a decent opinion....and even then it's not likely.

Maybe NYRA should drop that exorbitant takeout to 20% or even less.

[Dahoss]

"All of my winnings are documented."

Could you let us know where they are documented so we can look?

*crickets*

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

I wouldnt Lift the Lid for you!

Is it too heavy to push up?

Unclefraudelli

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

Anyone else?

LOL Love all you guys i really do, even Dumb Dumb, The forum Mayor!

OK I admit, its all total BS, and You can never win this way all the Odds are against me and I have zero clue what I am doing,. I guess in the end I just really wanted to be Liked by all the greatest horse handicappers in the world who are all found here at the Derby tail.

I wont do it anymore, besides my Mom found out I have been sneaking out of the basement so, I have been grounded and my allowance cut in Half.

Now If I can Just convivence the boys at the dog track, maybe I can be someone Like Dahoss some day,

I apologize and I also quit my Job, I can No longer live with Myself, walking around all day as a Charlton has finally worn me out.
At this point, why Lie, I just want a beer. And Maybe a couple bucks to bet the trifecta straight, on the 1,2,3/.

I have made an appointment to see the therapists, and told Manny to fly back to Cuba.

I only hope I am not found criminally liable for all my BS. I am a small man and would not fair well in Prison.

In the future if I do Post, It will be ALL/ALL/ALL but I will have to steal Moms purse to afford such a ticket.

Back to the Tonka Trucks, I tried.

Good Luck Pros!!

When you started posting here in 2014, your picks were straight WPS and tri boxes. Those are public posts that anyone can see.

When did you decide to adopt the weird 1930’s wise guy patter and inexplicably complex betting strategies? And why?

I ask as someone who used to insist on posting everything in lower case and then adopted a new handle sure to annoy many here for no good reason.

You accomplished that without a semi-offensive handle or nearly pointless style.

[hi_im_god]

My digging consisted of clicking on your handle and then the sub menu “view prior posts”. Real serious gumshoe work there.

Your patter is nonsense like “Cuban Sandwich” and “Caspar Horse”. Those seem designed to obfuscate not enlighten. As does the idea that you have a trifecta system that is so valuable it can only be discussed after we all sign a non-disclosure agreement.

Are we jaded and doubtful when an apparent charlatan (or Charlton if you prefer) shows up boasting about his nonsensical Cuban Sandwich? Of course we are. That really isn’t on the group. If I walked into a poker forum with a system to beat any poker table, I’d expect well informed skeptics would ask for me for details. I’d either prove them wrong by providing it (which they’d all know was impossible) or maybe make up my own language to hide the fact I didn’t. And then maybe pull the victim card when I was called out.

Random capitalization aside, your writing isn’t that bad. It’s the idea you try to present through that writing that stinks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

I dont understand the question? It is amazing to me, how defensive and stir crazy internet forum gamblers get.. Such a unique bunch, So driven by fear

What is funny is how many have attacked with all angles directed towards fraud, lol why is it, that all your thoughts are always driven behind proving someone wrong, or what have you.

My writing has been so twisted around through this entire ordeal, that started with the Mayors abuse.

No matter how you all want to spin it, it was caused through Dahoss propoganda and the Like. 25 examples, and my writing is extremly poor. I have said that for 20 years on multiple shops.
If you all spent half as much time investigating your horses, a few of you would pick a lot more winners,

The fact that you are digging puts a smile on My face, as you will only Find my roots. Lots of folks no Me, mostly So Cal, so keep on digging and trying to find what makes you feel good.

The Fear Monger forum lol oh man, I mean to shout

Your embarrassing level of self importance is remarkable. When you're the only one laughing at your own jokes, the joke is on you.